I’m looking at 40/60 portfolios, but the bond market is so hopeless currently (zero or worse profits over the longer term, plus the added currency risk) that I think I might be better off with a 40/0 portfolio and 60% CHF cash.
Can someone help me which bond segments will start to perform with any tangible results when yields will start to finally rise with some US tightening (which inevitably will be followed by an ECB one later as well)?
You care about the snb, not the ecb (unless you’re planning on living in the eurozone later)
Do you think the SNB could avoid raising? Central EU is already at 3% base rate.
Do you forecast long term inflation >2% if yes then yes, rises are likely.
CH is different from central Europe, CHF tends to get stronger over time which counterbalance inflation pressure (esp when inflation is due to imported goods/energy).
We’ll see if that holds true to 2030 
So do you have a Swiss Bonds product which is not losing value?
Could it be that the real question at hand is not “how to change my strategy in 2022” but rather “can the economy keep growing”?
As long as our economy works off of profits there will always be growth because else the companies wouldn’t be sustainable right?
most companies aren’t… but they’re flush with cash and financing is practically free for the last couple of years, which hides their inability to turn a profit…
When the bell tolls, the companies that are non profitable or whose business model doesn’t work without the current excess liquidity might very quickly disappear like it happened at the dotcom crash.
100% agree with the statement above.
I plan to keep 80%-85% VWRL, 10% AVUV and 5% AVDV for a small factor tilt.
Keep investing in the Finpension quality fund.
My DCA plan has a monthly frequency and I invest everything I have saved. What do you guys do with your bonus? Do you go ahead with a lump sum in that month or do you make it part of your DCA plan increasing the amount invested for each of the remaining month of the year?
Also, do you use a lump sum for your pillar 3a?
It’s not really a lump sum, just a yearly DCA vs. monthly 
Do you have a source to say “most”?
I’ve found a few global bond funds hedged in CHF on Six’s explorer.
For example: iShares Global Aggregate Bond UCITS ETF - CHF Hedged (Acc) [AGGS / ISIN : IE00BD1JRY91), which seems to be available for purchase at my broker (TradeDirect). A few other funds are available, I haven’t checked if it is a good fund and haven’t searched further since bonds are not yet part of my target allocation.
In my opinion, though, the search for yield in fixed income is a vain endeavour. The risk free rate in CHF is currently negative, anything above that comes with some additional risk, that is taken into account for its price, determining its (expected if not held for the whole duration) returns. We have free lunch with (slightly) positive savings accounts and fixed deposits in CHF, insured by esisuisse up to CHF 100,000 per bank. As a refuge currency, CHF could hold up good in a potential global crash. For swiss investors and under current circumstances, I’d say cash is a good contender for fixed income.
As for myself, I’d rather have safer assets yielding next to nothing allowing me to invest more in risk assets (stocks) than have more risk in my fixed income and less stocks for the same amount of risk as a result.
I think the question is about investing horizon. I’m no bond specialist but when rates rise, existing bonds indeed loose value, but newly issued ones have a better yield, so that on the duration of the bond, both cancel out. If I buy a bond fund with a duration of roughly 7 years, that means that 7 years after a rate rise, I would break even and, from then on, have increased returns. I’m not sure about the etiquette about linking threads of other boards but this one from nisiprius (an amazing source of insight) on the Bogleheads board should count as public service and deserve to be read by anybody pondering bonds and interest rates (read the whole thread, there are very insightful replies too).
A long term investor wouldn’t try to dodge the (potential) temporary loss of value, knowing it still leads where they want to go. Long term investing is about peace of mind. It’s about investing according to our long term goals and risk tolerance, getting into the mindset that intermediary fluctuations don’t matter and letting our investments ride, rebalancing when applicable. It has a proven track record leading to wealth, slowly.
Short term investing is where tactical allocations enter into play. Tactical moves are not a bad thing per se but if we want to play that game, we have to realize that it’s a negative sum game (because of the fees) and it’s akin to sitting at a poker table with all the investors trying to time the market, including institutions with full time employed analysts and traders and access to way more information than we do. Can we win? Sure! Are the odds in our favor? I’d wager that for the vast majority of us, they aren’t.
Safer assets suck for swiss investors right now but we shouldn’t forego them completely and go full risk on that sole ground, doing so may suck even more. 3A solutions could act as a guide here. VIAC uses cash, some gold and some real estate for its less than 100 solutions, Frankly uses bonds (both hedged and unhedged), real estate and commodities (my bet is on gold). Finpension uses hedged bonds and real estate.
I’d spend some time reading the Bogleheads’ board. These guys are really great at voicing reason in storms of panic and make sense of long term investing and staying the course. They don’t brag about it but many of them have a very high net worth to show for their investing career and they are a great source of insight on a very broad range of financial topics.
That’s part of why I wouldn’t advise going for 100 % stocks but to also buy other assets and rebalance. Money has to go somewhere, if it gets out of stocks, you should be able to capture it somewhere else.
My investment philosophy is simple, invest as soon as it’s available. I always lump sum my bonus. 3rd pillar is covered by standing orders.
I lump sum invest everything according to my targeted asset allocation.
We know. And we know the severe consequences this usually has on the markets. 
This year I have invested a lump sum for both my 3rd pillar and the bonus. On IB this lead to the YTD MWRR being lower than my benchmark (VWRL) whereas the TWRR was higher.
Wasn’t sure this was the best idea but probably only one observation point is not going to give me the full picture
Buying good companies.
I don‘t really plan to change much in my - or as a - strategy. The one particular investment idea I‘ve been toying with and thinking about is whether I should overweight Japan.
I followed the tail end of the dot-com bubble, and I was invested in 2008 and throughout the EUR crisis. In hindsight, it made me more risk-averse - and also lose out on some subsequent rebounds and gains.
Interesting that you mention this one as I had my eyes on this one in the past as a safe heaven bond if I may call it like that… The thing which made me not invest in it is mostly the low trade volume and low AUM which does not give me much confidence. It is also pretty new (3 years old) but I will keep it under my radar of ETFs which I should re-evaluate from time to time. At least it can be bought for cheap at swissquote for 9 CHF (it’s a leader ETF) or 2 CHF on DEGIRO. I don’t know about IBKR but I guess it can be bought there too. Probably DEGIRO would be the cheapest among all brokers. How much would you pay at TradeDirect?
Out of curiosity do you expect a positive returns on that ETF? How would you figure it out?
(Afaik the rule of thumb is to expect same return as CHF bonds of equivalent quality and maturity)
Yes, I do but I base this on it’s past performance so maybe not the best as we all know… It was positive for in it’s first and second year and then the current year is negative. The details can be best seen here: https://www.ishares.com/ch/individual/en/products/295830/ishares-core-global-aggregate-bond-ucits-etf-chf-hedged-acc-fund#/
Do you keep a percentage in cash?