A guy made it himself, will edit to add the post tonight after work (need to find it, had an interesting discussion).
Edit @fittim there you go: https://www.reddit.com/r/Bogleheads/comments/17waubx/having_trouble_choosing_a_stockbond_allocation/
This is the way. Another 3% here or 7% there don’t make (more than negligibly) a difference, and you know it.
Welcome to the Qrew! 
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Welcome to the quality club 
Should have done it earlier, already 6.1% YTD 
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True, I am just waiting to clear the bullshit with the life insurance 3A and get the money in before I put 2024’s allocation. Thankfully they aren’t dragging their feet.
Been thinking about deploying all of my liquidities into investment-grade US bonds to secure a 7-8% yield for the next few years before interest rates are cut while keeping the option to buy in stock market dips on margin. How sound would that be?
I struggle to see how the stock market would return 8-9% on average in the next 5-10 years (longer, sure).
You don’t have to do all or nothing. You could move part of your portfolio. After all, what would you do if stocks continued to rally another 10 years, or USD fell, or inflation erodes the real value of your bonds?
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Thanks. Yet I’m surprised to see how no one seems to rebalance into bonds (outside of the 2nd pillar, but which doesn’t offer the same yield), while on the other hand, the stock market is overbought and at an all-time high.
As for me, I’m already out of the market, basically. I agree that it shouldn’t be all in one class or the other, but then there’s using margin to reenter the stock market when I’m feeling it. And that’s not counting the 2nd and 3rd pillars, as well as a substantial bag of crypto.
I could be wrong, of course, but I really don’t see the market averaging 8-9% per year for the next 10 years (over 20 or 30, probably, but that’s not my timeline).
I don’t plan on retiring in CH, so I’m happy to be invested in USD, which, from how it looks, is bound to remain the second-strongest FIAT currency for a while. Inflation is a risk, yes, though it goes both ways.
I kinda agree with you, but: you could have said exactly the same thing 10 years ago!
I was about 30-40% in bonds, but just bought stocks this week so down to around 15% bonds now.
I also don’t see stock markets averaging 8% per year for a decade.
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Your bond returns are almost fully taxed, while stock returns are mostly not.
8%x 0.75 (assuming 25% marginal tax) = more like 6%, now add Dollar inflation of 3% and you are looking at maybe 3% real return.
I also dont think 8% are realistic, maybe 7% if you are lucky. Also as interest rates get lower your reinvested returns dont compound as much with new bond investments.
So 7% would be looking at 2.25% real, while the stockmarket returns about ~5% real on average.
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Discussed in another thread yesterday
Fair point. Then again, 3% is decent return for preserving wealth. Those 5% real return on average you mention, on what period is that? 5 years? 10, 20 or 30? Because it seems to me a lot of folks overlook the fact that when it says “the stock markets averages out at 9% per year”, that is over at least 20 years. It totally plausible for the next decade to be mostly flat, while the returns materialize only in the second decade. Tbh, I’m not always sure everyone is aware that it’s a moving target against their retirement age, assuming of course their goal is to retire early.
Looks like that thread is rather about hedging and CH bonds.
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Was referring to the discussion about not being able to earn higher returns by investing in USD bonds in comparison to equivalent CHF bonds. If I read the data correctly the futures market currently predicts USDCHF to decline by ~3.5% in the next year.
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Finally in 2024 I’m deciding to invest in the stock market! This is my first time and I have 40k lying around to invest. I’m thinking about:
- VT - 80%
- QQQM - 15%
- BTC - 5%
What do you think? 
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For clarification BTC is not a stock but a different asset class.
So your stocks would be:
84 % VT
16 % qqqm
And your asset allocation would be (assuming nothing else):
95 % stock ETFs
5% BTC
Since you asked for our opinion: Personally I wouldn’t buy a Nasdaq ETF on top of VT but that’s fine as long as you know why you’re doing it.
Also welcome to the forum and lots of success! 
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To assess if these choices are good or not, we would need to know a few things:
- What are your investment goals?
- What is your risk tolerance?
- What is your investment horizon?
- Why did you choose those three investments?
- Do you have any debt?
- Do you have a mortgage you have to or want to pay back?
- Do you have any other assets (pillars 2 or 3a, savings, other stocks etc.)?
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I go for 80% VWRL, 20% BTC/IBIT
Hey!
Thank you very much for teaching me! I’m really happy to learn!
Could you please ellaborate on the reasons on why you wouldn’t buy Nasdaq ETF on top of VT?
Furthermore, I’m originally from Portugal and I’ll be in Switzerland for some years… I read something about the 60k on investing on US stocks, what should I know about that?
-
What are your investment goals?
- My goal is to do FIRE however I’m still learning about it. I want to invest money monthly as I can save around 60% of my income.
-
What is your risk tolerance?
- I would say that the money that I invest I take it as lost. So I’m not very risk averse.
-
What is your investment horizon?
- 20/30 years
-
Why did you choose those three investments?
- VT is pretty much diversified with a good yearly return. For the Nasdaq one I feel that I want to be able to adjust along the time. If I see that the price is cheaper on the QQQ I would be able to buy more and fortify my position in the US stock. BTC is mainly a gamble.
-
Do you have any debt?
- No
-
Do you have a mortgage you have to or want to pay back?
- No
-
Do you have any other assets (pillars 2 or 3a, savings, other stocks etc.)?
- Monthly I put money for a pension fund
OK, sounds good. I would put aside some emergency money (highly subjective, some sleep well with only 5k available, others get a panic attack if it’s below 50k). The rest I would invest.
VT already has a high percentage of tech stocks, so if you want to increase that even further with QQQM, be aware that you’re reducing diversification and it’s a bet on tech outperforming today’s expectations.
Bitcoin is basically gambling, but if you want to take the extreme risk without any long-term data (50+ years) showing consistent returns on average, go ahead.
Also, what do you mean with “monthly pension fund”? 3a fund, and if so, where?
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Wanting to fire and considering your money “lost” when investing, doesnt really seem to fit for me 
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