Reading the title „Whats my investment strategy for 2023?“
My strategy for 2023 is to outperform the market, just don‘t know how to. 
That’s not a strategy, that’s an objective. The strategy is the high level plan that will get you there 
Not sure that one is achievable with consistence.
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From my side, I just bought a few JEPY, highly speculative ETFs based on daily covered calls… Probably a bad idea, what do you think about this kind of ETFs?
Otherwise, I keep DCA in ETFs like VT & others.
I fail to see how that 40bn has brought him profits…
what is this trying to say? That we’re running on an edge of a cliff that is a -80% drop in any direction?
What did he buy in Q1?
I’m subscribed to his newsletter - I think his argument is that the stock market is historically over-valued which means that it is at risk of a sudden, say, 40%-60% fall if a suitable catalyst arrives.
Just for my reference: when the stocks market was not overvaluated?
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50 years ago a stock had to return (say) 9% for the investor to earn 7% after brokerage and fund management costs
Today an investor can accept stocks earning 7.1% to get the same net return.
It seems logical that should drive P/E upwards, even if P/E didn’t exist as a concept at the time.
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PE over time are no directly comparable. Just think of the evolving nature of companies within the S&P 500 and differences in business model and PE of different industries e.g. compare oil and gas companies vs netflix.
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From what I see, this is a rather reputable guy when it comes to crunching historical financial data. Basically he is saying that “less risk (which is not volatility), less return” also works within the same asset class if we look at different historical periods.
I have seen some pictures illustrating the same thing for bonds. ChatGPT had friendly informed me that during the 17th century, the Dutch Republic had a refinancing of their outstanding debt with an interest rate of 5 percent in 1640, followed by a conversion to 4 percent in 1665. The coupon payments were done essentially in precious metals, not paper.
There is actually a bond from that time that is still paying coupons
I’ve added AVUV and AVDV to my VT+KBA portfolio.
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Aren’t small caps already included in VT ?
Yes, they are, but I’m tilting them since they are an important part of factor investing - small caps and value over long periods tend to outperform the cap index. And since we are in correction, I thought it was a good time to add it.
Is there recent evidence for “value“ outperforming the vanilla index?
Looking at MSCI World Value, it seems to have outperformed the „vanilla“ index in only two of the last 15 years (or three, if you count the only marginal outperformance in 2021), one of them being the 2022 that Russia was sanctioned by much of the industrialised western world and saw a big reemergence of inflation.
I really don’t like the fact that there is no clear definition of what “value” actually means (as opposed to 100% clear market cap weighting). Value funds are not based on publicly available, replicable indexes. Value investing is basically discretionary stock picking, and buying&selling instead of buying&holding.
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If I were a market-timing mean reversion guy, I’d go all-in on ex-US now. But fortunately, holding VT, I don’t care about spreads coming and going 
Hi everyone,
This is my first post here and I am pretty much new in this world.
Let me introduce myself quickly - I am married (both of us working with regular 2nd pillar), in my mid 30s, 2 kids, my horizon of investing is long term (hopefully 25+).
I started with my 3rd pillar (saving account in UBS) 3 years ago, but with stocks etc I started in May this year.
I have 2 portfolios at IBKR:
- for me and my wife. Currently is CHF 10k. In the future I plan to invest CHF 12k per year. I was thinking of DCA on monthly/quarterly basis
- for our kids. Currently is CHF 15k. In the future it should be CHF 7k per year. Also DCA.
So far I did some stock picking + ETFs - for the time being it’s not that great (-4/5%) - I had to pay for some lessons 
Now I think to make it more simple.
For the kids portfolio I would sell everything and buy only VT. The aim is to get in average 7-8% annually.
For me and my wife I would go for VOO (80%) + stock picking but only (Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia and Tesla). I can bear that risk - having cca 33% in this 4 stocks. Overall this portfolio is obviously more risky with the idea to get 11-12% annually in average. (already have some Nvidia and Tesla).
For the 3rd pillar I would move it to Finpension. I like the idea of investing it 99% to MSCI Quality index. Is it clever to it under CS after all? Is there something similar within UBS part of Finpension? I was passing by their office in Geneva, but it’s not possible to meet them in person - isn’t it weird? I called them but they explained me that only video call is possible.
Furthermore, my wife will open for the first time her 3rd pillar as well. So far she didn’t have it. She did only some buy back of her 2nd pillar.
What do you think? I am open for all feedbacks
Cheers
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Hi Skver and welcome !
Two generic questions:
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why so much investments for your kids relative to yourselves? The kids will benefit from the stability and peace of mind of a more secure financial situation (which you could also use to trade working time for time spent with your family). You can always gift to your children whenever you feel it is warranted.
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You say that you can bear the risk of a portfolio concentrated in US stocks (VOO) and 4 (volatile) positions making up 33% of it. Is your wife on board with that and have you taken her own risk tolerance into account when making those picks?
Otherwise, your expectations of returns seem high to me. 7-8% is what a portfolio invested 100% in US stocks has brought up on a long term average basis, in USD, in the past but:
- VT isn’t 100% US stocks, it is globally diversified, which means it’ll guarantee you to hold the winners but it will also hold the loosers (which is a good thing, if we could pick winners, we’d only need to invest in those stocks and should forgo index investing entirely).
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The future isn’t the past: another set of stocks may outperform going forward and US stocks may underperform.
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25+ years isn’t a long enough term to make earning the long term market average a statistically likely occurence. For example, since 1970, a VT equivalent would have returned between -0.83% and 10.33% yearly (on average) for all possible 20 years periods (with a median at 4.65%), inflation adjusted, in USD: https://www.lazyportfolioetf.com/allocation/all-country-world-stocks-portfolio-rolling-returns/
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Unless you are planning to spend in USD, the returns significant for you will be in another currency (I’m guessing CHF). I’d be more conservative with returns in CHF than in USD.
I am personally using 5% nominal returns for global stocks (VT) in CHF for planning purposes. I don’t see a reason to expect I can outperform that other than by a defined strategy that I’d be able to assess properly. My own ability at stock picking isn’t it (the only one I’m currently considering is using leverage, which also increases risk).
If you haven’t already, I would also make sure that you are properly covered, with either insurance and/or enough low volatility liquid funds to protect your family in case of hardship, that is, keeping enough short term money aside for potential short term needs.
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