What's your (investment) strategy for 2023?

Does this mean it’s time to sell VT and switch to cash/bonds?

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According to Ray Dalio - cash is king…

…or trash, depending which moon phase it is, and/or what he had for breakfast, when he’s having the interview. :sweat_smile:


Shorted SPY and finally built up the guts to short NVDA.

If NVDA goes up tomorrow, you know who to thank!


According tio Ray Dalio, Cash is King, and Ray Dalio is the Emperor…

Shorted TSLA today too. I considered also shorting QQQ yesterday, but I do like quite a few of the names on there.

you’ve got balls, man. respect.
If there’s 1 guy in the universe I wouldn’t short, that’d be Elon.

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I already bet against Elon once by buying twitter and having him buy it off me at an overinflated price! :joy:

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More shorts on SPY today - a bit of a gamble on bad AAPL results tanking the market. Short SPY is now my biggest single position (though I remain net long equities).

Bought a little BIL, XOM, ADC and O with the proceeds. IMO, still a little early for REITs and Energy is dangerous with potential downturn around the corner, but being completely out of energy was making me nervous.

EDIT 31.10: Bought more O and also finally went for more duration. Converted SHY to TLT. Hope I don’t regret that!

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Given the recent rally, I was curious to know how this position played out for you


Overall it is quite profitable.

I cut half the exposure to short SPY, but left the other half to reduce equity exposure.

Short SPY is down around 5%, but the REITs I bought are up double digits.

Even the SHY->TLT shift was well timed and is up >4% already in 3 days.

Hi Phil

If I may ask: what kind of bonds are you holding?

Looking into adding bonds to my portfolio too, therefore the ask.

Bulk of holdings was in short term bond ETFs such as BIL, XBIL and SHY. Though recently, I speculated on falling interest rates by selling some and buying TLT. I moved away from individual bonds as it was too time time to manage and bond funds have more liquidity.

Others are more speculative indivdual corporate bonds such as MPW, Celanese and previously also AAPL (matured), Coinbase bonds (now sold).

I hold only Treasury bonds and some corporate bonds (usually speculative) where these seem to present value e.g. Coinbase bonds were hugely discounted as were MPW.

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Ok, thx.

Regarding treasury bonds:

Do you buy them directly or via etfs like tlt?

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Both, but now I buy only via ETF as it is much more convenient. Unless, I need something that really has a bond-like return profile including maturity at a specific date (although there’s even an ETF for that with iBonds).

BRK was a net seller of stock for the last 4 quarters.

Stocks seem overbought now. I will likely resume my selling today.

EDIT: In pre-market, I sold more SPY and sold also the TLT holding.

Do you have the link to any analysis accompanying this chart?

Looks scary but the “white space” looks dependent on inflation assumptions - which seem to be changing from month to month, each inflation read out causes a sell off or rally

It looks like from one of Hussman’s newsletters e.g. When the Bough Breaks - Hussman Funds

I wouldn’t describe him as a permabear. Just that he has been bearish for a very long time.

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