What's your (investment) strategy for 2023?

I’m not sure if this is what you mean by this but yes you can choose to invest your 99% Stock plan via Credit Suisse, UBS and Swisscanto. According to their app they are all similar but somehow UBS has a TER of 0.0% when I checked the other day (I was thinking about changing my strategy).

If anyone has any insight on this ping me.

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Thank you all for your answers!

To answer first on your generic questions:

  1. investments for our kids are coming directly from children allowance (Allocations familiales) they got from the Canton of Geneva (if I am not wrong). We were saving it since they were born (4y and 1y) and will just transfer this amounts to IBKR.
  2. Overall yes. The idea is to be, let’s say, more aggressive now and then over the year % of stock picking in total will decrease. According to that scenario in total Apple would be 11%, Microsoft 12%, Nvidia 6%, Tesla 5%. I believe that this 4 companies in next 5-10years would perform well. This portfolio (VOO + stocks) is CHF1k per month. You think that it doesn’t make sense? Or it’s a gamble that I should avoid?
    Currently we can save I would say in average 3-4k per month.
    The rest is sitting in our saving account - one part as you said in case of hardship to protect us, while another part - we are trying to save enough for buying a real estate here or something back home.

With the rest of your comment I agree. Especially with the part that the future isn’t the past.
Coming back to one of your points - we are planning to spend in EUR.

I got this point, however there is an office in Geneva, so someone pays it :slight_smile:

I know that the custody bank can be Credit Suisse, UBS or Swisscanto.
First I am not sure if it’s clever now to opt for CS, then UBS or Swisscanto are there.
In case that I would like to individualize my strategy I was keen to follow 99%: CSIF (CH) III Equity World ex CH Quality - Pension Fund DB. However this is a CS Fund, so I was wondering if there is something similar under UBS or Swisscanto funds offered in Finpension? I believe you can’t mix funds and banks.

Isn’t that a bit low ?

According to investopedia S&P500 long term return in USD was 10% through Dec 2022, before inflation.

After inflation real return was ~7% - see this link.

I agree it is likely stocks will deliver lower returns than the long term average for the next 10-20 years due to the consequences of unwinding loose monetary policy.

What exactly are you worrying about? It was discussed here already in length and I said thrre already that not much will happen to your assets in CS funds.

There’s no alternative from UBS (which makes it even more likely that UBS will keep that fund and will at a max. relabel it, they will most certainly only merge funds where they already have an equivalent UBS fund, they don’t want to lose the assets) or Swisscanto. As a sidenote, Ihave around 50k invested in this fund at Finpension.

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Hi Burningstone,

Personally I don’t believe something serious can happen to this deposits/funds, but on the other side after everything we heard/saw - I believe that a kind of fear is reasonable to feel when you want to invest today in something which has in its name CS :slight_smile:

Cheers

Then you have to live without the quality fund :slight_smile: maybe in a few years it will be available with UBS in front of the fund name :wink:

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What would be your expectation of that portfolio?
And how should look like a portfolio of 11-12%? I know that no one here has a crystal ball and on the other side that quite aggressive scenario over the years would have some bad results etc.
Even if I work in finance, I am new in this world so I am open for all feedbacks, suggestions etc :slight_smile:
Cheers

Main feedback would be to base your investment strategy in function of your risk tolerance not target returns.

IMO 10% is not realistic without having a huge amount of risk and very non trivial probability of large losses. Even 7% is on the aggressive side and can end up with large losses (it’s not volatile for nothing :grinning:).

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Also worth remembering: one should discount 1 to 3 percentage points over the usually quoted S&P 500 return expectations long term, given that they are quoted in USD and we’re interested in CHF.

I’d expect real return to be similar in USD or CHF tho, so that part shouldn’t make a lot of difference (assuming you’re looking at real, not nominal returns).

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Right, I guess what I meant in a roundabout way is that most return numbers you see will be nominal/non-inflation adjusted (which is perhaps where this 10-11% expectation might come from?)

Let’s see :slight_smile:
Are you still keen in investing there or this 50k you put before and that’s it?

50k is enough for 1 account, I have a second account with VIAC and there I also use the CS funds. Once this one reaches 50k, I’ll open another one, but this will take a few years now and then I’ll see what other providers I could use.

If the CS quality fund would be available at VIAC, I’d invest in it without blinking an eye.

Sir, they’re the same thing!

(Tongue in cheek only, of course, as even though risk and reward are directly related, one should start with risk and how much one is able to bear)

If you’re worried about the branding, why are you looking for UBS funds?

Credit Suisse at least was too big to fail (and it got saved from failing).
UBS on the other hand may now have become too big to be rescued.

You could think about distributing into 5 3a accounts. The goal should be (in case you do not touch it until pension) to have equal amounts in all 3a accounts due to tax efficiency when liquidating them.
In your current approach, the newer accounts will never catch up to the older ones due to the compound effect.

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Yes, I’ll probably do that. It makes especially sense now that I plan to hopefully retire at 52-54, so with the current approach I’d only have 3 accounts once I reach the ordinary pension age.

In fact I already have 4 accounts open at VIAC, but only one is funded at the moment. I’ll probably alternate every year between the 3 unfunded accounts or split the amount every year between the 3. I don’t think there will be a huge difference between the two approaches.

Or just fund the smallest/zero accounts first.