This is mustachianpost.com, so naturally the great majority of people will tell you that VT also “contains VT” and recommend you not do something else.
My own recommendation will only be that you should not base your prospective investment on what currency you (rather randomly) happen to be holding right now. Even if you feel better to invest in a European fund and/or one with European holdings. Cash can always be converted into another currency cheaply.
My reflection was only sparked because of the current exchange rates. Although the EUR/USD pair isn’t as bad as EUR/CHF. But I suppose, in the long term, this doesn’t really matter ?
(At least not to you anymore - whatever that fund’s trading or reporting currency. Only indirectly, macroeconomically may it matter to the fund’s holdings, in terms of sales revenue currency, the supply chain etc. But these are often protected against changes of exchange rates)
If you want to invest in EUR, I would avoid the currently expensive (that is with a high valuation) iShares Core EURO STOXX 50.
The Vanguard FTSE Europe ETF is broader and less expensive by most metrics, but it includes UK and CH exposure.
As a country-specific ETF, the Vanguard VGER includes large, mid and small cap stocks of companies located in Germany at a good price.
That’s it for the summary and I have detailed a buffet of options in this article if you want to go deeper into the subject: Investments in European indices.
The trading currency has nothing to do with the location of fund’s constituents. You can transfer EUR to IB, exchange to USD and invest as usual. But if you want to have some diversification with respect to brokers, you can open an account with a European broker (degiro, Flatex, dkb, comdirect, …), transfer your money there and invest in any fund you want (European ETFs only, obviously). VWRL, VWRA, whatever.
I already have a crypto “investment” plan. I don’t think I want additional exposure to cryptos.
That’s a really cool ressource, thank you. Does your analysis also take into account the new german coalition? If not, would it change your investment advice?
Thank you for your feedback; this review of options was done without adjusting for any additional political risk discount - in the UK case, it is obvious that the relatively low valuation is explained by a non-negligible part of political risk…It is less clear with Germany, but the price difference with French large caps is so wide that it should still gives us a good relative margin of safety.
Partly. I’m not even sure if it’s so much political risk rather than just the sectors composition.
If you look at the Footsie’s 10 biggest constituents, they - with maybe the exception of the two pharma companies - are all in lower-valued sectors: consumer staples and commodities. Plus a bank.
I also tend to think that the alleged political risk is kind of exaggerated in the EU. While the UK is certainly in a period of transition after Brexit, they’re pretty much keeping calm and carrying on.
The big exodus hasn’t come. Financial services providers have created subsidiaries/entities in EU member states where necessary.
And both RELX, Unilever as well as Shell have decided (after Brexit) to consolidate their company structure into running out of London - giving their up domicile in the Netherlands.
We seem to be back at parity between CHF and EURO.
Wise sages of this forum, what evolution do you see in the future? Will the Euro recover, is this the right value until circumstances change? Or will the Franc keep increasing slowly but steadily (my bet for now)?
Based on current forward rates, the market expectation is for CHF to strengthen against EUR but only by 0.3% within a year, 1% in two years. If the ECB increases the rates more than SNB (as it should, given the inflation), the forward rates will increase as well.
My personal hunch is that the franc may get as high as 1.10 euros this year before returning to parity, where I predict it will remain over the longer term. But that is just a hunch.
Isn’t one of the “core tenets” of index investing and by extension the “FIRE movement’s” that we can’t possibly hope to successfully time or predict the market? Yet there are multiple posts trying to do this exact thing at regular interval on this forum.
OP: no one owns a functional crystal ball. Ask 10 people and you’ll get 10 different answers.
As you know since the conflict in the Ukraine the CHF/EUR exchange rate changed to 1:1 for 1-2 days and is now at 0.99 EUR for 1 CHF. The last time we had such a ratio was 2015.
My question is: is it the right time to convert CHF into EUR?
My biggest concern is the infaltion rate in EURO area which was 7.5% in march compared to Switzerland with 2.4%.
I’m planning to invest a bunch of Euros within the next 1-2 years into a house. So no one has a crystal ball to see what happens in future but I would be interested about some opinions whether it’s wise to change the money now than later.
I have no crystal ball. A higher inflation in the euro zone than here in Switzerland could continue to weaken the EUR against the CHF. Inflation could also lead to higher house prices.
I personally would change the money, once you closer look at houses. But I guess only the future can tell you, if thats the smartest move.
I did buy some euros when CHF/EUR was 1:1. My gut feeling is that the SNB will intervene again if CHF/EUR drops further below 1.0, trying to protect the Swiss economy / export business sector and countering currency safe haven speculations. Therefore I think it’s a great time to buy EUR if you are going to spend it short-mid term, otherwise inflation might be problematic.
I think the Euro will further weaken. The current sanctions will hit very hard the economy. Of course, the CHF can also weaken, but I would say Euro will more
By reading and partipating to this forum, you confirm you have read and agree with the disclaimer presented on http://www.mustachianpost.com/
En lisant et participant à ce forum, tu confirmes avoir lu et être d'accord avec l'avis de dégagement de responsabilité présenté sur http://www.mustachianpost.com/fr/
Durch das Lesen und die Teilnahme an diesem Forum bestätigst du, dass du den auf http://www.mustachianpost.com/de/ dargestellten Haftungsausschluss gelesen hast und damit einverstanden bist.