The 2025 stock picking game

OK. Let’s play a stock picking game. By 14 February, select exactly 5 stocks (or ETFs if you wish) and either long or short.

Starting portfolio will be calculated as $200k in each position taking the closing price on 14 February.

Winner will be the one with the biggest gain by the end of the year. No changes in portfolio allowed (unless some corporate changes happen). Dividends will be deemed to be re-invested in same stock.

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Sure, but what’s the prize if when we win?

Eternal glory.

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I’ll start:

  • Short TSLA
  • Long GLD
  • Long AMD
  • Long SRUUF
  • Short CWST

Random picks of my mechanical stock picking system, all long:

  • CBRL
  • EHTH
  • RNGR
  • MCS
  • BFH

Short TSLA
Short MSTR
Long BRK
Long CHSPI
Long VWO

Of course not enough balls to short for real it’s just gaming!

Mine are for real:

cbrl bot 01/13/2025@56.61
ehth bot 01/08/2025@9.99
rngr bot 11/12/2024@15.41
mcs bot 11/07/2024@22.26
bfh bot 07/09/2024@46.04

Mechanic strategy, many will not make it until the end of the year and the biggest gains come usually in the 2nd and 3rd year. But I put my money where my mouth is.

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Short TSLA
Long Ibit
Long gld
Long tlw
Long intc

Eternal glory?

And finally the chance to look at companies without the master’s pesky and manyfold dividend requirements?!

My monkey crew frantically threw away the cucumbers they were chewing on and enthusiastically got together in their war room, beating their chest for a while before starting to pick stocks while in chorus chanting “apes together strong”. Later in the process, cheap whiskey became an important part of their screening routine.

Here’s the shortlist they puked up elaborately produced with (all long suggestions):

AMZN
CI
GL
RICHT:HU
SJM

Clearly a stock ensemble that fits as smoothly together like … some portfolio put together by Victor Frankenstein in an alternate universe where he became a hedge fund manager instead of a scientist?

Here’s the corresponding FASTgraphs:






Runner Ups:

BK

AMXB.MX

ASELS.E:TR

BIMAS.E:TR

GPN

MRK

NST:AU

OMC

TEP:FR


+1

Price adaptions to earnings changes often take a while to materialize unless it’s the super hot stocks de jour.

Yeah, only partially for me. Picking for a dividend (growth) portfolio seems different than speculating for biggest total return of five companies by Dec 31 2025 (translation: I have no skill for doing what we’re trying to do in this topic).

My 2025 buys (for that dividend producing portfolio) so far were:

  • MAIN (DRIP)
  • IMB (DRIP)
  • ES
  • CHCT
  • PEP

Anyway, thanks for launching it, @PhilMongoose, this should be fun. This round, we’re trading paper money, next year people have to put in an actual million in order to participate. :wink:

By the way, what currency are we measuring this in? The global reserve currency or some tiny country’s safe haven currency?

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Let’s play this exciting game too :slight_smile: My pick:

  • DE
  • MARA
  • MSTR
  • RPI.L
  • RUI.PA
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I play for sure:

  • long IBIT
  • long MSTR
  • short EUR
  • long GLD
  • long commodities, like AIGCI

Let’s go!

Long all:

  • TSLA
  • NVDA
  • ENPH
  • MSTR
  • GOOG

USD

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Long TLT
Long BOXX
Long ARGT
Short NVIDIA
Short TSLA

Happy to enter the game as a rookie :grin:

• IBIT
• IAU
• VOO
• BRK.B
• TSLA

  • Short MSTR
  • Long IBIT
  • Long RSST
  • Long QLEIX
  • Long BLNDX

A bit random, but maybe it‘s gonna work out

Long Bitcoin:
IBIT
FBTC
ARKB
BITB
HODL

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Honestly, I was expecting this from Stojano! :smiley:

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In theory in this type of game you need to be even more crazy, like 100x leverage. You can’t win with a 30% gain. I’m into bitcoin but not 100%, but this is a game :stuck_out_tongue:

  • Long 9984
  • Long PDF
  • Long INTL
  • Short BTC
  • Long SE

Edit : I didn’t check the deadline. I’ve made the necessary corrections accordingly.