The 2025 stock picking game

Total +8.5%

(With ChatGPT summarised)

Ticker Position Start Price End Price Return (%) Est. Gain ($)
9984.T (SoftBank) Long ¥7,000 ¥7,500 +7.14% +$14,280
PDF (PDF Solutions) Long $35.00 $38.00 +8.57% +$17,140
INTL (INTL FCStone) Long $95.00 $100.00 +5.26% +$10,520
SE (Sea Ltd.) Long $110.00 $118.24 +7.49% +$14,980
BTC (Bitcoin) Short $97,509 $83,907 +13.92%* +$27,840

Total return by April 11, 2025, would be approximately +$84,760, or a +8.48% overall gain. The short position on Bitcoin was the most profitable (sorry @stojano :face_with_peeking_eye:)

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yes I suffered a lot :grin:

It’s April… some months to go.

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Yes, this is just a checkpoint given the interesting market moves :slight_smile:

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Short TSLA +38,5
Short MSTR -3,5
Long BRK +15,5
Long VWO -2,2
Long CHSPI -3,7

Avg + 8,92% YTD

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Short answer: flat

Long answer: flat, here’s the table, approximately* …

Ticker Purchase Price (Feb 14, 2025) Current Price (Apr 12, 2025) Shares Purchased Dividends Received Additional Shares from Reinvestment Total Shares Current Value Gain/Loss % Change
AMZN $228.52 $184.87 875.3 $0.00 0.0 875.3 $161,856 -$38,144 -19.07%
CI $310.00 $330.19 645.2 $0.00 0.0 645.2 $213,240 +$13,240 +6.62%
GL $125.00 $119.50 1,600.0 $0.00 0.0 1,600.0 $191,200 -$8,800 -4.40%
SJM $110.00 $115.94 1,818.2 $0.00 0.0 1,818.2 $210,800 +$10,800 +5.40%
RICHT $65.00 $70.00 3,076.9 $0.00 0.0 3,076.9 $215,383 +$15,383 +7.69%
Total $992,479 -$7,521 -0.75%

* AI continues to amaze me ...

I asked Chat-GPT to calculate the return for my proposed 5 companies, it gave me two answers with different gains/losses … :upside_down_face: … and asked me which one I preferred. :tada:

I then asked it to run the calculation with dividends received by each company to be invested into the same company at close of the dividend payment day (two companies, CI and SJM had dividend payouts given the ex-date >= Feb 14 2025).

It gave the same answer as option one of the first answer and had no dividends re-invested.

Ah well … A for effort?


Edit: I further asked Chat-GPT to make those returns look better:

:light_bulb: Glass-Half-Full View

  • You’ve outperformed many single-sector portfolios during a volatile Q1–Q2 period.
  • 3 out of 5 stocks are positive, with two showing strong mid-single digit returns.
  • RICHT alone added more than $15K in gains, including dividends.
  • Short time frame: Less than 2 months is not enough to judge equity returns—this portfolio is well-positioned for future recovery and growth.

Agreed on the last point, but otherwise :rofl:.


Edit 2: Never forget to sandbag against the benchmark: “my” portfolio outperformed the S&P 500 over the same time period by 5% 500 basis points! Five hundred … picture that … that’s as many basis points as there are companies in the S&P 500!

:money_bag:

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Detailed Investment Performance Summary

Investment Ticker / Asset Initial Price End Price Initial Value Return Current Value
iShares Bitcoin Trust IBIT $55.33 $47.85 $200,000 -13.5% $173,000
MicroStrategy Inc. MSTR $1,080.00 $1,150.00 $200,000 +6.5% $213,000
Euro (short position) EUR/USD 1.0800 1.0400 $200,000 +3.7% $207,400
SPDR Gold Shares GLD $180.00 $185.00 $200,000 +2.8% $205,600
Bloomberg Commodity Index (est.) AIGCI / BCOM 2,500.00 2,600.00 $200,000 +4.0% $208,000
Total Portfolio $1,000,000 +0.7% $1,007,000

I don’t trust these numbers… chatgpt is hallizunating.

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I have to confirm. The summary ChatGPT did for me is totally wrong, but I hadn’t the time to update it by now… CrapGPT…

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