Jumping in to share that the initial thread Should I buy TSLA shares? is now visible again (after discussion and agreement with @Bojack and @Julianek).
I let it closed, as this thread already acts as follow-up.
As always, no hard feelings, we’re all humans here ^^
Ok you’re right, the initial version of the bet is simpler. I’ll take it.
Good article. And good that you mention fundamental analysis, I always thought that this forum too rarely use it when talking about different stocks. But I guess not everyone wants to dive into the accounting arcanes.
On another note, I mentioned earlier that the CyberTruck seems to not work so well commercially. Well, in 6 months they have only sold… 3878 units, which confirms that they are probably underwater on this project.
I don’t think that Tesla will go belly up, as long as there are Musk fans the company can still raise equity at a lofty valuation. On the other hand I think that this will be a very disappointing stock going forward.
Officially a mustachian car
OMG what a pathetic joke of an article. The whole premise is wrong.
Some people like to drive, not being driven, and know how to drive. Some of us even enjoy getting our hands greasy from time to time. Personally when I saw how shit the future for cars looked I got a motorcycle license and a motorcycle. I believe motorcycles will be the last remaining stronghold of those of us who actually enjoy the road and motoring.
Tesla has more future as a charging network company and contract manufacturer for parts and software than a car manufacturer in my opinion.
A late stage mustachian car, though: most of us should still be riding bikes.
Posted around the same time:
Swap some words around and the same could have been said by a cult leader or dictator.
Tesla has been ordered to recall nearly 4,000 of its Cybertrucks due to an accelerator pedal that can stick in place when pressed down.
Maybe this explains why they’re not selling anymore … not that many frugal people out there. 
Oh, he seems to be acting a bit like a cult leader nowadays (while being self concious about it). I think he thinks he’s walked the walk and the way is there for us to see and get inspiration from. He may as well enjoy his retirement and we may as well look elsewhere (in his earlier posts, for example).
Which is why I wouldn’t take car advice from him but he’s as legitimate a source as any to stick a “mustachian” label on anything. We could create an “orthodox mustachianism” movement and declare Teslas are Mr./Ms. Fancypants items that deserve a slap in the face no matter how many millions you have in your investment stach and should be merrily scraped for parts on the village square by self-reliant-I-repair-my-own-stuff people until there are no more of them.
Your posts are always measured and sensible! I am not a fan of FIRE or “mustachianism” (what a dumb word that is!) or the penny-pinching zealotry. There are many ways to skin the proverbial cat (another awful expression, cruelty to animals is offensive to me even as an expression!) and they don’t necessarily need counting every cent, just being systematic and sensible with investing.
There’s a smugness of those who have done everything in their power not to work which is hard to stomach.
Tesla just cut the price of all its models in North America by a further $2’000.
That’s $2’000 less profit per vehicle. Tesla is expected to sell roughly 500k X/Y/S vehicles in the USA in 2024, that means $1b hit to its profits.
With 3.2b shares outstanding, that means a $0.31 EPS impact per share. Applying current forward P/E multiple of 56x, the stock should trade lower by $17 or $18, or roughly a -12% price drop.
Let’s see how the multiple will behave next week…
Maybe he just wants to help others find the right path? For sure he seems to like his Tesla, is that a mid-life crisis thing? 
Seems like a classic penny-pincher, might as well profit from the dupes who idolise him.
Apparently the in-house Tesla ads/growth team has been fired.
Elon: The ads were far too generic – could’ve been any car.
Does anyone here hold a significant amount in TSLA stocks or is even completely invested?
Elon?
I watched that one 
Thinking to start a position around these levels. It’s pretty much oversold on every TF.
Earnings should be priced in
I am genuinely curious to understand how “earnings are priced in”.
I mean, we are looking at a car manufacturer with declining margins, declining revenues (and probably declining profits, depending how they will recognized deferred revenue), with an ageing model lineup, probably no new model (if any) before 2026, and EV competition firing from all directions, especially China which used to be the bulk of the company’s profitability.
Add to that that they seem to bet the company on FSD, which is way behind their competitors in its actual version, and they probably won’t have any state registration before two or three years if they ever manage to release something really functional and safe (and as said earlier, currently FSD is not safe. 1 Disengagement every 400 miles is a cool toy hobby, but not something commercially viable).
And yet, the stock is still trading at 50+ earnings. So no, earnings are not priced in. It has never been about earnings. It is probably about people thinking that Elon can pull another rabbit out of his hat.
If earnings were priced in, the stock would probably not trade above $20. But somehow there is this big Elon optionality premium.
But again, I have been (very) wrong about this stock in the past and I probably will be in the future as well. For me it was a good lesson learned that numbers don’t always make sense and yet a cool narrative is enough for an impressive stock performance.
At this point I am only there to study how it unfolds.
