The Semi was vaporware (they clearly were missing the battery capacity at the time), the Roadster was vaporware (they were almost going bankrupt and needed to deliver and scale Model 3), the Cybertruck is so far vaporware (same issues). The The Boring Company (currently) is … a joke, really. Elon’s not short of big dreams, but in reality he can’t achieve all of them and he needs to deliver results after so many years of dreaming.
Hence he is focusing on squeezing more profit off the only car they make.
Again, I don’t blame him, it’s the correct strategy to execute and milk the competitive advantage, but this will probably remain for the foreseeable future.
Same here, never seen the need for a Wallcharger if the universal mobile charger that came with the car does the job as well.
I’ve also was a bit surprised about that emphasizes of the Robot business. In my opinion he should have founded a new company for that one as it’s only vaguely related to “accelerating the world towards use of sustainable energy” really. I guess he can afford such statements/strategy decisions.
So why the f*ck are you still balls deep invested?
I mean, whatever the merits of the Tesla company (as an investment), that Elon guy has time and again proven that he’s full of pipe dreams (and, generally, full of it) and can’t be taken seriously. He’s claimed FSD would be ready “within a year”. Give or take. He has claimed that year after year - for several years now.:
“I would be shocked if we do not achieve Full Self-Driving safer than a human this year. I would be shocked.” (Musk most recently)
Do I need to repeat myself looking back at previous statements of his?
“I think we will be ‘feature-complete’ on full self-driving this year, meaning the car will be able to find you in a parking lot, pick you up, take you all the way to your destination without an intervention this year”
(…) Musk said that Tesla drivers would be able to fall asleep and wake up at their destinations using full self-drive by the end of 2020" (Musk in 2019)
“"By the end of next year, said Musk, Tesla would demonstrate a fully autonomous drive from, say, “a home in L.A., to Times Square … without the need for a single touch, including the charging.”” (Musk in 2016)
His accountant does not seem to share the same view. Looking at Q4 balance sheet, deferred revenues (i.e cash received for which services have not yet been provided) have jumped by almost a billion dollar, most of it being long-term (i.e in more than one year). It’s hard to know exactly the content of this deferred revenue, but I have a hard time believing that it comes only from cybertruck reservations. A big chunk of it is likely FSD revenues being converted from short-term to long-term deferred revenues.
Other theories are welcome, I haven’t followed the company in details lately.
In a world where everyone uses robotaxis (maybe one day it’ll like that in cities, I’d be happy), one robotaxi can serve many people. While we get to that future, many people might want to buy a car with FSD, but only unless it does not costs a fortune, so I don’t think they would want to push up the price too much.
In my opinion privately owned cars occasionally used as taxis will not make the bulk of the market. Just look at privately owned condos/chalets you can rent via airbnb/booking.
While I see the point in renting your holiday home for a week and then clean it up after one guest, it’s a different story when there are dozens of customers using your car in one day. Sure, it might make sense for some people, but I think this mixed option will not be so popular.
Either you got the cash and buy a car 100% for your private use, because you don’t want to share it, or you don’t buy it at all and just use the robotaxis at all times.
For the mixed use case, I could see a monthly or even a daily fee to let your car join the robotaxi network on the days you don’t need it. This way there would be no upfront costs. Pay as you go.
I assumed the Musk statements about “FSD coming within the next year” were slightly disingenuous claims to generate buzz. Based on videos I saw of the Beta version of Tesla FSD we are still years away
If Tesla are indeed charging customers for this already then accounting for it as long term deferred revenue would seem to be the correct treatment
(If anyone has a video showing FSD working reliably, please share…)
I think the problem is, it is very hard to predict exponential developments. Just look at what AlphaGo did. AI was supposed to not be able to beat go players for years and then it happened. So maybe Tesla will be still patching FSD for another decade, or maybe it only takes a year. I don’t like Musk’s predictions because he’s been off time and time again, so I don’t think most people take his timelines seriously.
At this point, he’s that guy telling you the work will be done by Monday and then, comes Tuesday, explains that he didn’t tell the Monday of which week he meant. Except since Musk is using years, he’s likely to actually be waaaaay early on his deadline if he meant this year of the next century. xD
Yeah well it’s good to challenge any possible misconceptions, but I think in this case it’s so simple to disprove your argument.
If public transport can replace taxi, why do taxis still exist? Can you accept that some people do not like to check timetables, stand in a crowded train with their luggage, switch to a bus, then walk the last stretch (depending on the itinerary)?
So, if we agree that taxi has some advantages over public transport in certain cases, what happens if the cost of taxi plummets, because you don’t have to pay the salary of the taxi driver?
People who drive a lot decide to buy a car (today taxi would cost too much). How can it be that in Switzerland, a country with top notch public transport, you still have millions of cars? Why don’t they use SBB & Mobility? Are they stupid or what? Now could it be that when robotaxi becomes cheap, some of these people will ditch their cars?
So, to conclude, I think the market is there. Privately owned cars and human-driven taxis are to be displaced by the robotaxi. It will result in taxi drivers losing their jobs and people buying fewer cars, because robotaxis will have a higher utilization rate (hey, it’s even good for the environment if the stuff we make actually gets used!). But stay skeptical if you want, I don’t care.
Utilization of taxis is so minimal in Zürich that it hurts to see them pending around. Partly because it’s so damn expensive. I’d gladly call an Uber but I’ll think twice before sitting in a taxi. YMMV.
Current taxi driver will be about 50% of taxi costs. If you replace that with zero, you approximately achieved Uber cost levels… Would you want to sit in a human-driven Uber for the same price or prefer a premium robotaxi with a 99.5% software in it? I guess most people would do the former. It will probably change if FSD reaches 99.99%, but we’re far away from that level.
Motorisation in Switzerland is a tad lower than the EU average (52% vs 57%) despite massively larger disposable income. We have even 2 cars, and we use none of them for daily commuting (lucky us I guess).
Last time I switched cars I passed on buying the next one for a whole summer and we moved around with Mobility with a small kid. It worked perfectly. In fact, I’ve spent less on Mobility than the fix rate of my previous car. Too bad we moved out of the “comfortable” mobility zone as now it’s a 10-minute trek to the next Mobility zone and alas, I’m lazy to walk that much. If I were in any way short of money, I’d fall back on this approach.
Usage of private cars will always fill the maximum available space for cars, which in Switzerland is quite low (no 6-lane highways, expensive parking, etc). It’s a time vs cost thing. Here, you actually are able to beat private car transport on time with public transport, so keeping a car is only necessary if you want one vs need one (in lucky conditions in cities, I might add). Try that in Wroclaw or Naples.
The US has 80%+ motorization rate and Waymo robotaxis are still not getting used. Did you read the article I linked above? Did you ever wonder why?
Theoretically, rational people should switch once the robotaxis are as safe as the human-driven ones. And TBH I believe this is achievable in a near future. But then people are not rational, so they’ll need a bit more than that to massively switch, combined with a big discount on the cost.
Hä? Where did you get this number from. You know, in Warsaw you pay 2.00 PLN per km. Which is 0.50 CHF. And this covers the car and the driver. So if in Zurich it costs 5.00 CHF per km, don’t tell me driver is only 50%.
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And even you now concede it’s still not solved?
If I were in any way short of money, I’d fall back on this approach.