Should I buy TSLA shares?

Since you asked, why not provide an update …today?
I might still be a fool for a lifetime. But not today.

Up slightly more than 20% as I’m writing this. :rocket:
Though that’s of course no more than a momentary snapshot.

There are big twittering powers at work that can change momentum any day.

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I am +13% on a TSLA short position over the last 2 weeks. No funky leveraged ETFs. Also +1.7% on long VT (relative trade) so I guess +14.7% overall.

Beware of your vol drag. If we get a few more red days on these growth stocks the 3x daily leverage will do you super well though.

My TSLA short is just 1% of portfolio but diversified other shorts (LMND, SNOW, UBER, etc.) also collecting some nice profits today.

Considering adding some more downside protection to my portfolio with options but would rather buy on a green, low vol day. Some debit put spreads on a few high IV picks and some OTM monthly puts on some low IV.

Hate having exposure to some of these valuations.

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Or just read the slides

I’ll rather have one of these, thanks. :grin:

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Stock price seems to take a deep dive, too. :boom:

Since I’m waiting for my food, I’ll make this very quick, .

I’d add at least one major risk to the risk summary (and it wouldn’t have needed dbu to - coincidentally - post it right before me, but his linked video reinforces the point):

Competition.

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Made me laugh, through tears :joy:

It’s still non negligible, right? (-17% over a week?)

Welcome to the bear market (check also other nasdaq tickers…), should we panic sell now or what?

We are talking about a drop back to the level of Dec 2020, which is merely two months ago.

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“Panic sell” or “quietly take profits” - it’s a question of perspective :wink:
BTW - it would be interesting to see if Tesla Inc. is tempted to sell their Bitcoins. Perhaps they have already done so…

Would you take profits after -15% in a week after you held ~900?

Why not? Perhaps chart trending would suggest to do so, or the sharp rise of interest rates, or some change of mood by retail investors…

S&P 500 is on par to where it was a month ago.
There’s a bigger sell-off going on in tech - but not unexpectedly so, after the last rally.
NASDAQ 100 is down about 3.5 to 4% over a month, but still positive year-to-date.

TSLA is sliding and down since the compared to beginning of the year.
It’s not only a bear market. Or if it is, TSLA is disproportionaly affected by it.
Again, not unexpectedly (after its run-up so far).

I would. There’s still much downside potential.
It only needs to go back to its price mid-November '20, to lose another 38%.

We may disagree sharply on whether TSLA is a good investment now (or how risky it is).
If one is up 15x like Remo (as he says in his video), there’s little arguing though that TSLA has been a very good investment for him.

I don’t agree one should invest in or hold TSLA now.
I would, however, have to congratulate him for spotting the opportunity early - and acting on it.

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Im not Remo from the video with his 15x, you mean @SwissMustachian

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Even if I have stated many times my skepticism about Tesla’s stock price, i have to admire @San_Francisco’s balls to directly short Tesla, I would not have done it.

I still think that in the long term, the company won’t earn enough return on invested capital and thus will be roughly worth its book value give or take 50% ( that makes a target price of $10-30 share). There are several reasons for this, among which supply side competition, accounting and governance red flags and so on.

That said, shorting is still a very risky endeavor, at least for two reasons:

  • the risk profile is meh. The most i can earn is 100% if the stock goes to zero, while i can lose an infinitiy of money if the stock goes up enough.
  • Let’s say I have found a company which I think is either excessively promoted or a fraud. First order thinking would be to say, “Great, let’s short it!”. Second order thinking is to realize that if that is really the case, then this company is really good at promoting itself or being a fraud, and unless something fundamental changes, there is no reason that the price will suddenly go down after I enter my short position. As Munger would say, Being short and seeing a promoter take the stock up is very irritating. It’s not worth it to have that much irritation in your life.

So i gladly take a pass, but I am here for the popcorn :slight_smile:

EDIT:

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To be fair to my balls, I didn’t short directly. As mentioned earlier, I just bought leveraged ETFs (although that probably worked in my favour so far). In any case, the potential of a loss is limited to my investment.

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What a day so far
Day’s Range 619.50 - 694.20

Wrong pattern (I held too)

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If not sure to hold just zoom out…