Long live non-GAAP-Earnings (or in Munger lingo: bullshit earnings)! Playing Captain blindingly obvious - how can debt and depreciation NOT be part of earnings of an AI business or a leo constellation?!
4 Likes
Tough to determine real value without any profit. I think people didn’t want to miss out another Tesla so they simply overpaid.
1 Like
2.6T valuation post market. Lol.
1 Like
The stock seems to be driven less by traditional metrics and more by excitement and Elon Musk’s reputation. Pricing SpaceX at 100x multiple of revenue is both impressive and risky (Nvidia is around 20x sales, Apple and Alphabet at 10x). The valuation is far above what traditional metrics would justify, and the move is driven more by narrative, hype, and Elon Musk’s brand. Trading volatility is very high, the price moved quickly and enormous volumes were being exchanged soon after the first trades. A large amount of money had already changed hands and even though the stock may hold up briefly, it could fall sharply if buying pressure fades. Looking forward to the first financials of Q2, that should come sometime in August, that might tell us more 
Right now, selling is heavily restricted so it’s not that surprising that it’s going up. I guess on top of the Elon trade, people are betting they can make bank by buying before inclusion in the major indexes. The entry point into the CRSP US Total Market Index, which is the index tracked by VTI, seems to be this week.
I wouldn’t consider actual efficient price discovery to happen before the 180 trading days mark, at which point selling and buying will be possible for most shares and inclusion in the indexes that are planning to include it shortly will have mostly happened. Even then, the price might be distorted by the artificial momentum that has been built until then.
1 Like
the question is when?
There is also not even 5% of float. Wayyy too much retail upward pressure going into a tiny slice of stock of the company. it’ll come down once more shares are released.
3 Likes
Options are available now
Haha we will not have a piece of this 21T dollar company fffaaaaarrrkkkkk
Wow, premium to buy an out of the money put is expensive!
https://www.reuters.com/legal/transactional/spacex-buy-anysphere-60-billion-2026-06-16/
Was the IPO just an infinite money glitch? They are now able to buy a 60B company for 2.5% of their own valuation? Basically trading in 0.5B revenues for 60B?
Yes. The quirk is that Elon can convince banks to lend him/SpaceX money against their shares. If other insiders elect to do so too instead of selling, the price can be sustained and sky is the limit of what it can do (at the cost of risking their whole package and more if it doesn’t).
Most importantly, the voting rights structure of SpaceX allows Elon to do whatever he wants without anybody being able to challenge him for it. With that high a valuation for SpaceX, he can buy whatever company he wants through a stocks deal and still follow the same rules. Not that it bothers his retail followers. Their whole thesis is to have Elon do whatever he wants without constraints so they’re probably happy to throw their voting and legal challenge rights away. It might even be a bonus in their eyes as it prevents other shareholders from interfering with Elon’s “vision”.
Virtually infinite.
For the time being.
1 Like
I thought that stock lock ups often restrict using them as collateral too (because the bank isn’t allowed to sell them during lockup).
1 Like
The lockup periods are shortened for SPCX.
Except for Elon’s shares, early investors can sell:
- 20% after Q2 earnings report ;
- an additional 10% if by then, the price of the share is 30%+ over its IPO price (if it can maintain this level for 5 days after Q2 earnings report) ;
- 7% after each 70, 90, 105, 120 and 135 days post IPO ;
- 28% after Q3 earnings report ;
- any remainder after the 180 days mark.
Each of these event is a liquidity event as more shares enter the public market. If insiders sell, that may put downward pressure on the stock price. If they elect to borrow against them instead (which is risky, the price can also collapse at any time), it may help support the price.
I trust Elon to be enough of a sweet talker and enough bankers to be enough of a good public (to not use a more derogatory expression) to manage to find a way to get liquid assets out of his pile of stocks even as they’re locked up. He may borrow using the company (instead of in his name) or use the assets of a company he may be searching to acquire as collateral for the acquisition (which he did for Twitter, that got saddled with a pile of debt which this IPO aimed partly at erasing).
Rumor that SpaceX and Tesla will merge…
SpaceX’ President Gwynne Shotwell acknowledged that a merger “would make Elon Musk’s life a lot easier”. And prediction market Kalshi places the likelihood of a consolidation agreement before May 2027 at around 61%.
2 Likes
Would be a beautiful “reimagination” of the 2008 MBS packaging:
Dump multiple pieces of c*** together into a bundle to hide their “quality”, and sell them as “top tier”.
Can’t wait for this to play out. 
2 Likes
What would be the incentive to merge?
Giving Elon full control without pesky shareholders throwing wrenches
6 Likes