Thanks for the analysis @ternes11 , so cost would be another factor…
Yes, like SpaceX buying loads of Teslas, etc… oh, wait…
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Indeed, although if one is expecting a significant (e.g. minimum 30%) drop I think costs are negligible (with puts). Then it depends on your expectations 
Which time frame? I think most IPOs are priced to pop on open (there are exceptions tho).
In practice it’s because there’s no real price discovery in the IPO allocation, only when it starts trading (and it looks bad if the stock goes down on open). (One exception is google who ipo’d with an auction)
What’s hard is getting allocated shares on the IPO.
Under the “no one can predict individual market movements”-hypothesis, this would have to be based purely on statistic probabilities deducted from data from the past.
Being facetious like I usually am 
It’s amazing that a company can be worth 2.2 Trillion with annual revenue of 19 billion and profit of less than zero.
How will shareholders see the return on their investment is beyond my understanding.
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Yes - especially in this case (valuation vs. revenue and earnings).
Then again, Musk is one of the biggest and best at rigging this game.
Black Jack and hookers… ON MARS!
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Our Jesus has a new one, just on time
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you reading my mind, Ton?
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so… I fucked up…
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Very very limited options available sofar
Will impatiently wait
That’s by design.
Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) rules prevent IPO underwriters from lending shares for short sales for 30 days post-IPO.
A company cannot have options traded on its stock until at least three business days after its initial public offering (IPO) date.
Edit - watch out:
CRSP index funds like VTI buy IPOs after 5 days (unchanged), also MSCI (unchanged). FTSE Russell after 10 days, Nasdaq after 15 days (changed and weight more than float). S&P broad market funds also buy it (unchanged).
Insiders are allowed to sell much more quickly within months (staggered) which increases float. If the float increases, indexed funds have to adjust and buy.
S&P has not changed its rules for the S&P500 which roughly moves as much as all the rest combined (if I remember correctly). The US market cap is at roughly 70 trillion, with index ownership roughly half (from memory)?
There is the option for S&P500 inclusion by merger with Tesla:
Non-S&P Composite 1500 companies that
acquire S&P Composite 1500 index
constituents, but do not fully meet all of the
eligibility criteria, may still be added to an S&P Composite 1500 index at the discretion of the Index Committee if the merger consideration includes the acquiring company issuing stock to target company shareholders, and the Committee determines that the addition could mitigate turnover and enhance the representativeness of the index as a market
benchmark.
I understand that as: S&P either has to decide according to the named criteria whether to delist Tesla or include a merged entity.
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Maybee a stupid question:
Can someone explain to me why SpaceX set the price at $135 per share? I’m asking myself this question because the shares are currently trading at $160. If SpaceX hadn’t sold the shares at a fixed price but had auctioned them off instead, they would have raised a lot more money.
Yes
and no:
- They have a greenshoe of 15%.
- They profit from hype and reputation.
- The float is under 5%, 95% of shares profit from any raise (even if the raise would just be due to an imbalance of supply and demand).
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It’s pretty common for IPOs to be slightly underpriced, it’s bad PR if the stock falls when it starts trading (as mentioned above, I’m not sure anyone ran an auction after Google did back in the 00s, see Initial public offering - Wikipedia).
(Greenshoe clause also helps the underwriters, preventing the price to slip below the IPO price).
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I think the real value of SpaceX is closer to 500B. So Elon got 75B pretty cheaply.
Morningstar roughly agrees with you. Otherwise, Big Financial is either quiet (UBS?), full of fanfiction (see revenue forecasts of GS, MS) or just part of the syndicate.
No. of rating brokers: 3
Consensus is: strong buy
Earnings per share (source FactSet)
In USD
2026 (E) -0.64
2027 (E) -0.09
EBIT (source FactSet)
In Mio. USD
2026 (E) -4’304
2027 (E) -311
Cash flow per share (source FactSet)
In USD
2026 (E) -
2027 (E) -
Price/earnings ratio (source FactSet)
2026 (E) -
2027 (E) -
EBITDA (source FactSet)
In Mio. USD
2026 (E) 10’343
2027 (E) 22’662 (+119.1%)
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