Selling before the bubble bursts?

Personally I’m envisioning decumulation resembling accumulation:

Make rules, then stick to the rules.

The “DCA, come what will, automatic investing”-mindset is very different to what some people on this forum are doing. Our thoughts or feelings don’t influence our actions.

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How much is “everything” / for how long have you been investing?

Or did you forget an /s sign?

ETA: thanks, my post makes no sense now. Can you stop deleting and undeleting? :joy:

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(post deleted by author)

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I don’t know. And because I don’t know, planning an exit strategy 30 years in advance doesn’t make sense to me. That would be a waste of time, IMHO.

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Just sell to me and be alright. I can handle the risk. And I need sellers… :smiling_face_with_sunglasses:

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you have no feeling how a deep and prolongued downwards market feels like. Who do you think would be buying if people fear losing their jobs, their pensions and their bank accounts. With what money do you expect them to buy the dip if they all off a sudden realize they can no longer renew their mortgage or they even receive a margin call on their investments.

When Shit hits the Fan… there won’t be any dip-buying anymore but the market will go down for the duration of an average recession (which is 12-18 months in the states and in other countries like Europe that have stronger labour protection probably a few months longer).

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Their wifes, their homes, their jobs, their every penny? Of course, they will be buying stocks because that is exactly the time when you should be doing this. If you cannot stand the thought of losing a lot you should not invest in stocks. Winning in stocks is easy peasy, even the millennials can do that. But what about losing? That is when you really make the difference, when you really make money.

So yes, keep selling to me I buy. I have absolutely no idea when the bubble bursts, but I know exactly what I will do in that and in every other situation. Everybody who doesn’t should enjoy the ride because later it will hurt a lot.

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By the way, anyone shorting Palantir? (Bought few options)

I trimmed 5 more positions today to bring my margin down to 1%.

Which? I have 9 buying orders and 2 sells today. Buy: LMT, MRK, APAM, JNJ,CNA,VTRS,O,T,BORR. Sell SENEA and a little part of my CMI for the market dividend.

But then the captain which is called the devil by some, but is really just my a bit younger brain writing down what I have to do in each situation, told me to do all that.

Respectfully, I think your post is more geared towards the US setting, I don’t think it’s really applicable in Europe.

I can see how people can lose jobs and hence have no liquidity to keep buying, this is why I wrote “the key thing is to keep a job” above, but if one doesn’t lose their jobs then what’s to stop them buying?

I cannot see a scenario where the Swiss 2nd and 3rd pillars can be lost, or my bank account given I don’t borrow. The brokerage account will lose value, yes, but be lost for real? No, not even if PF and UBS go under (which they won’t), securities are segregated.

Big sharks and whales were buying the hell of the RE dips worldwide in 2008 and 2012-2015 (Greece), they were even actively undermining the country so it blows out of the EUR and into drachma so they could bring their £/$/CHF/EUR to buy even more things on the cheap. I’d have strung them up, hanged, drawn and quartered if I could.

I remember 2000, didn’t even make the news in Greek backwater. 2008 made the news but was not really felt because of high % of home ownership and low borrowing culture. 2012-2015 was the real kicker when public pensions were cut in half and insane property taxes were introduced. Having lived through it, employed in a healthy company, owning my house I literally didn’t feel a thing until the crazy left came to power. Sure, my dad whose pension was/is in GR Govt long-term bonds lost 75% of his pension, it’s unclear if he’ll ever get it back.

My point is that it’s country-specific, I am betting someone with a Cantonal job, no stocks whatsoever would not bat an eyelid at reading “The AI Bubble Burst”.

Edit: I just remember reading a long post about “Why Europeans don’t invest”, a few years back. A response stayed with me, it went along the lines of “Europeans don’t trust stocks, and it’s unlikely many tears will be shed for dirty bankers, ordinary people won’t even realise if Apple went under”. It was written by a French person. Now France is, sadly, near bankrupt - and this will be felt - but it has nothing to do with stocks.

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Trimmed: WAF, ELV, LNC, CNC, NOVN

Looking to buy VTRS too.

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Question is -: can you stomach a 50% crash ( that takes 3-5 years to recover ) but while the crash lasts it would feel like that market will never recover?

If the answer is NO, then please review your asset allocation. You would never be able to time the market. You will either be too early or too late. But you can decide what risk you want to take (willingness) and what risk you can take (ability).

If answer is yes, just relax. Asset prices are high across the board. So it’s okay to also have a crash

If you think such crashes won’t happen. Then just look at history . They will

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Sound like y’all are too emotional about the market.

Don’t really know what that means, but had the urge to mention it :woman_shrugging:

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This thread is really kinda a relaxing lounge, comfy sofa and massage corner while watching the stock market crash.

I don’t feel any anxiety, never ever.

Exactly. We’re just lighting our cigars with 1000 CHF notes and enjoying the atmosphere.

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Sorry that I cannot provide links, but I think I have read an article that said all the bear markets in the past were nothing. It all went up fast again and the panic makers did not count in the dividends.

Really?

No. 50% is very probable and it may be 80%. It is not very probable because money is losing value very fast, but no situation ever lasts forever.

I enjoy the bull market, of course, never had more money than now. But the most money I made in bear markets. I made that money only because of my mechanical strategies that told me exactly what to do. And almost always it was the opposite of what I would do on my own.

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That’s why I’m really relaxed, as long as you’re posting your mechanics, we’ll know when to hit “SELL”.

Well I guess when shit hits the fans that’s when you go 1000x leverage and BUY.

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But it is dramatic! E.g. my stock picked portfolio is only up 0.01% today!!!

I already looked at my fridge three times tonight to check whether there’s comfort food or any alcohol …

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BRK.B, CHDVD and SCHD are green :stuck_out_tongue:

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