Hello,
I know the theory. I know we probably shouldn’t sell, keep investing no matter what.
But still, it’s tempting to at least talk about it. We might well be in a bubble territory. Anyone thinking of selling before it bursts? Even only 10-20% of your stocks ?
I wouldn’t try to time the market. However, it may be a good time to review your long time asset allocation. If you’re currently in 100% stocks and you’re no longer convinced that you can stomach a 50% drop, maybe you should reduce your stock allocation, but then keep that long term.
I’m constantly thinking about it. I’m often hearing that “smart money positions itself to profit from crashes”. But if I’m fully invested, I can only buy the crash with margin/debt (which can be deadly if done on a scale that moves the needle). And if I sit on cash I risk missing the last (often significant) hike before the crash.
No, because bubbles don’t burst in an instant. The 2000 crash took from Aug 2000 to Sep 2002 to play out whereas the GCF from Oct 2007 to Feb 2009 in terms of ATH to absolute bottom before going up again. The key need would be to have a job and continue accumulating and reinvesting dividends in that time, then you come out looking great and don’t need to try to time the market.
Edit: the “lost decade” is only “lost” if one looks at a lump sum invested in Aug 2000 and nothing else added, including dividends. I don’t remember the details but I do remember seeing that with regular investing throughout the crash one’s out of the woods much faster.
That’s also something I’m constantly thinking about. The 20%-plus drop this spring an the corona spike were almost like flash crashes compared to the historical ones. I’m wondering if this is a general trend: Will all future crashes be faster compared to historical ones because of the Internet and how every private investor nowadays can react within seconds instead of weeks?
The other question you have to ask yourself is where you put your money when you sell? CHF? USD? Bonds? Gold? Some of these have different risks too.
It’s very possible that the dip buying, TINA culture has made it that whenever there’s a sell-off there’s an equally quick “buy TF dip”. I suspect if the crisis is real and systemic and not saved by deus ex machina (like the COVID-19 stimuli) or TACO once the liquidity for the dip dries out it’ll dip really hard! Of course 2000 and even 2007 was stone age compared with today in terms of speed and accessibility, too.
Or to look at it another way: Buffett has been selling for the past 12 quarters. If you sell now, you’ll sell before the crash and have better timing than Buffett! 
I wasn’t going to comment but then came across this Tweet just now which seems apt for this topic:
(Source)
Check out the list of links in the 6th post.
Also: Will the market crash? YES 100% for sure it will. As it has before. When and by how much? Nobody knows.
The market is at all time high most of the time. Have I been feeling that this “surely can’t go on like this” since I started investing (in 2019) with the exception of most of 2022? Yes for sure. If you want to invest, you better get used to the feeling.
… Oh, I see you’ve been active on here since a long time, so I guess you’re actually a seasoned investor. So you are probably used to the feeling and it’s a new hunch? Did you sell before?
I always have a plan, but -3% is quite a punch in the mouth
We know 
, but Mike Tyson didn´t.
There’s only 1 answer:
Nobody knows 
@SwissMousse didn’t realise you were joking, sry👋
I thought that recently too.
But then I remembered that this is exactly why I am a World Index buyer: because I hate making decisions like this! Knowing that I don’t have to make such decisions because I have already decided to buy and hold has always given me peace of mind and good sleep.
And I won’t need the money for the next 30 years …
I’m more concerned about what the next 10-20 years hold because of sky-high government debts around the world.
Let me just…hmmm…put that…totally inconspicuous ACME Industries stick of TNT in there…But, what’ll happen in 30 years? How will the decision be any easier in 30 years, especially considering that while 1-5% moves may be in the hundreds/thousands today, they could well be in the multiple tens of thousands or more in 30 years. My point is not being a schlong, more about the fact that the exit strategy is probably more important than the entry, and it’s a subject very poorly covered in financial fora etc, probably because most people engaging are in the process of accumulating, not preserving/decumulating.
