Market crash around the corner ? Invest into ETFs (VT, VWRL, UBS SMIM) or Bitcoin and Gold now?

On a rough level, bonds react to interest rate changes as a function of their duration: for each 1% of interest rate hike, they should loose 1% per year of duration of value (so 10% for 10y bonds, for example). They’ll recover that loss due to increased interest over their duration (so 10 years for a 10y bond). The reverse happens when rates fall.

This is the best thread I’ve seen on the topic: Short- and longer-term effects of rising interest rates on a bond fund - Bogleheads.org

In essence, a 50/50 mix of 10y and 5y duration bonds should behave roughly like a 7.5y duration bond (for each 1% of interest rate rise, the 10y bond would loose 10%, the 5y 5% for a mean of 7.5%, the same as the 7.5% bond, then they’ll regain the lost value at different rates which approximate a breakeven at 7.5 years for the 2 solutions).

So, in theory, we can finely tune the duration of our bond funds by mixing and matching durations. Cash is essentially a 0 duration bond so by mixing a 2y duration bond with cash at a 50/50 ratio, one would have a mix of assets behaving roughly as a 1y duration bond, so by adding the right amount of cash, you can theoretically lower the duration of your global fixed income assets to the term you are targetting.

This is what would happen in lab conditions, in reality, there are other aspects that make things happen not exactly as the theory would have it but since I lack a better while still simple model, I consider it good enough for me.

Let me know if you want me to develop more. The Bogleheads forums have very knowledgeable people and are usually a good source of information. Their Wiki provides good information on bonds:
https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Bond_basics
https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Bonds:_advanced_topics
https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Individual_bonds_vs_a_bond_fund
.

I don’t think there are a lot of short term bond or money market funds with either assets denominated in CHF or hedged in CHF available to retail investors, I’ll have to dig a bit and come back to you on that one.

Edit: @Fallguy our own Wiki is a great resource on the existing fixed income options for Swiss investors with links to the active topics regarding the best rates/products available currently. Thanks to all the contributors and to @nabalzbhf for having started and compiled it: Short guide to CHF fixed income options

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