I almost feel like selling some today. I know I shouldn’t but one missile / bomb in Lebanon and Iran will close the straits any second. It’s a make-believe ceasefire.
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Yeah same thoughts. Sunday suddenly something happens and markets crash 10% next week lol.
Used car variation metric.
Then there’s the new car metric.
Then the luxury car metric.
You’ll get used to it. Important is that you have no car yourself, or a used Dacia, while your PF makes ± Lamborghini Urus.
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You know the drill, something bad happens over the weekend. Market tanks on Monday and then TACO Tuesday.
Fortunately, we live in the internet era, and I have yet to see more ships pass through the Strait.
Coming up
Cuba
Greenland (because owning bases is important instead of having contract)
Zillion % Tariffs on everything 
Yep it’s closed again by Iran. I had a feeling this will not last.
Lol we called it.
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And if not Iran, there’ll be something else that blows up again.
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Ships are getting shot at again as well:
Honestly considered selling everything Friday afternoon. But chickened as usual.
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Alas we are missing that superior insight…
- US President Donald Trump says his representatives, headed by Vice President JD Vance, will return to Pakistan for negotiations - Iran has yet to confirm they are attending
- Trump has also threatened to strike Iranian power plants and bridges if a deal is not reached
Courtesy Tom Tomorrow.
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Incidentally, I’m sure Iran has also found a way to get a hand in the prediction markets and fund some of their operations this way.
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This is becoming a very complicated thing for Gulf nations. In an attempt to support Israel to show dominance in ME, US has created a very big issue for Gulf states. Iran is not going to let go of its leverage on Hormuz so easily.
Unless the objective was to move oil demand away from ME to US, this is a strategic error which have long lasting consequences
I saw a clip of Hillary Clinton over the w/e where she basically said that the US had wargamed Iran playing exactly like they do right now.
Week after week a resolution seems increasingly unlikely. Previously the US has stepped up pressure on Israel, however it was a different US and different (weaker) Israel. I am wondering if Israel is confident that they don’t need US support, I feel they may have not needed it for years already.
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New Patrick Boyle video is pretty darn damning on this whole thing. We are on the brink of a generational crisis, and despite the stock market is rallying to ath after ath.
I think that nowadays, the driving forces moving the stock market are:
- available money (people liquidate stocks when they actually need money for consumption).
- attractiveness of alternatives.
and potentially crowd behavior and deleveraging if a bigger drop starts to occur.
I personally don’t expect a bigger economic crisis to have an anticipated impact on the stock market. The impact, if any, would come after the economic hardship actually hit and people need the money.
My track record of predicting the market is awful, though. It’s only good at helping me sleep at night, confident that the market will do whatever and that I’m more likely to loose brain cells than make money trying to link market movements with world events/situation.
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Never mind the stock market, even the oil futures are disconnected.
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