Iran changes everything

That’d have to be Zug Estates AG :wink:

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There is now Naval blockade in Hormuz. This means it’s now closed for everyone - even the allies of Iran.

I guess this makes sense as positioning. It’s its open for all or closed for all

So now it is the US that is directly blocking the strait, rather than indirectly by starting this war.

I didn’t think the recent pull back in oil stocks was enough to warrant buying more, but maybe I was wrong! :stuck_out_tongue:

I also find the US comments about the negotiations suspicious. Iran have always stated they would not go for nuclear weapons, so I doubt the sticking point was giving up on nuclear weapons but rather something else e.g. giving up their stock of enriched uranium.

I don’t know whether this is good or bad in the end, but I think it will bring things to a conclusion faster.

I actually thought it was better for Iran to have some kind of ‘escape valve’ and allow oil to flow through Saudi pipelines to export to Red Sea so that the economic damage was not too severe to cause all countries to turn on them. But now it seems that US is willing to be the ‘bad guy’.

I’m curious as to what will happen when oil destined for China gets interdicted by the US.

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If US leaves without resolving the strait of Hormuz, this will cause two issues

  1. gulf nations need to resolve the problem themselves and all the money they invested in US for protection over years would deem worthless. They might need to ask help from China or India or Russia and thus US would lose their cash cow in ME. Let’s not forget Petrodollar treaty is protection money. No protection, and treaty might be in trouble.
  2. US would be seen as defacto loser because they couldn’t get nuclear deal , they left Hormuz closed and they didn’t achieve anything except bombing Iran.

I don’t think US President would like this to be the legacy. I think US has to find a way out of this which they can sell as real victory. The problem is that they now need to solve an additional problem which never existed before the war.

I also think that is to be seen. Most likely US will only stop Iranian vessels. Stopping Chinese vessels would be act of war against China.

Edit -: seems now it’s being called as „blockade of Iranian ports“. Maybe the idea is to block vessels loading in Iran. But the vessels which are being loaded in Gulf and from „non hostile to Iran“ nation might be out of scope.

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Probabaly also Iran’s demand of tolls and control of Hormuz. hence why US wants to go after vessel who already paid a toll.

Yes, how dare Iran demand money… oh, wait:

US seeks $5 trillion from Gulf states to stop Iran war: Omani analyst - Türkiye Today

There is no way this figure is correct, not even Trump is that delusional.
Also no source for that in the article and why should we trust some random turkish news site?

Yes, the figure seems a bit on the high side, but if it was $500 billion… the point would still stand.

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though, if they have such an error in the amount I’d seriously doubt the rest of the premise too, unless there is another source.

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Gulf is already paying via Petrodollar treaty. They are forced to invest billions of USD in US. they also buy US defence tech.

But of course since US is drowning in debt and they need money , maybe Gulf need to pay more.

But how can they even pay when they cannot sell their oil. These economies are not very large. Their combined GDP is 2 trillion. Remember when they were promising trillions of purchases from US :slight_smile:

Plastics prices climb as supply disruptions ripple through petrochemical markets

Major chemical producers including Dow Inc. (DOW) and Exxon Mobil (XOM) are raising prices for plastics in response to supply disruptions linked to the conflict involving the U.S., Israel and Iran.

See also: China’s Petrochemical Sector Cuts Output as Costs Climb | OilPrice.com

Chinese petrochemical makers have started idling capacity as the cost of their feedstocks rises amid the Middle East war, Bloomberg has reported, noting that output is down to the lowest in three years.

About a fifth of the country’s petrochemicals capacity has been taken offline, the publication wrote today, citing data from a Chinese industrial news outlet. The report added that the petrochemicals industry is currently operating at just 68% of capacity.

The futures prices of purified terephthalic acid, a chemical that is used in the production of polyester, have gained close to 25% since the start of the war, eroding petrochemical makers’ margins, Bloomberg noted. At the start of the year, PTA was trading at less than 5,000 yuan per ton, while this month, prices are above 6,000 yuan per ton, after topping 7,000 yuan per ton in March.

Oil prices, meanwhile, remain elevated although they have retreated below $100 per barrel on hopes that ceasefire talks between the United States and Iran would resume, even as the U.S. blockade halts the outflow of Iranian crude, per the latest reports.

On the physical markets, however, hope does not play a part. “While diplomatic headlines suggest the possibility of renewed U.S.-Iran talks and even a temporary easing of transit restrictions, the physical reality remains fragmented,” energy price forecaster the Schork Group said in a note, as quoted by Reuters today.

The publication reported that refiners are urgently seeking replacement crude for their lost Middle East supplies, and are ready to pay hefty premiums for alternatives. WTI for delivery to the Netherlands yesterday hit a premium of $22.80 per barrel to Brent crude, Reuters wrote.

China has been relatively insulated from the worst of the supply shock, but global prices and crude oil availability do affect its industries—and demand for the products that these industries churn out, including petrochemicals.

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Blockade, blockade…

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Wouldnt be suprised if things go sideways again - quickly.. :slight_smile:

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Saturday morning: US boots on the ground of Vatican.

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We’re that close to the end of times that they resurrected pope Francis? :smiling_face_with_horns:

haha, who would have known. The pagan I am had no idea.. :slight_smile: fixed it :slight_smile:

+17k this month. What a crazy year.