In conversations with more than three dozen oil and gas traders, executives, brokers, shippers and advisers over the last week, one message was repeated over and over: The world still hasn’t grasped the severity of the situation.
https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2026-iran-war-hormuz-closure-oil-shock/
That’s what I’ve been trying to say for the last 3 weeks! 
I think for natural gas specifically we had the problem that there were basically no LNG terminals, so European gas was essentially it’s own market in which Russia was supplying the majority of supply.
Now: Europe is connected to the larger LNG market and there only 20% or whatever capacity has disappeared rather than a larger part in a smaller market (and the European consumer can more easily outbid poor South Asian countries). Furthermore there was talk of an LNG, with between now and 2028 the new capacity coming online is larger than what is blocked now. (though there is obviously a time gap)
So I won’t dispute it can get much worse, but I’m kinda skeptical European gas prices will reach 2022 heights.
(Now oil has some fun going on with types and oil and refineries, but even if Brent/WTI don’t get much worse, oil products really are a global market)
This is what I assumed too, although right now, it seems like Asia is willing to pay more.
I’m guessing for industrial/electricity use it’d be neck and neck. The bigger question is what happens with gas for residential heating, and since we’re mostly on the tail end of the winter I think that is getting the “wait and see” approach for now. We’ll see what happens when the gas storage for winter really needs to be refilled.
Finally the real intention is declared. All these talks of regime change, helping Iranian people and saving US lives was not making much sense. But this does and always have
Like ~60 years ago..
It also looks like rate cuts are being taken off the table, Asian markets red…will be a not fun week…
also:
Potential retaliation on GCC oil infrastructure could come and make things even worse.
Somebody should tell him that you’re not supposed to say the quiet part out loud.
I’m really hoping that Trump doesn’t say any more stupid stuff like taking Iran’s oil or invading Iran. On the one hand, he is lying and un-sanctioning RU/IR crude to keep a lid oil prices and then he undoes all of that by trying to play tough.
Looking for a big TACO from him today so I can offload more stocks and maybe buy more oil related stocks.
Market is pricing in resolution in weeks. I’m thinking months, barring a quick and humiliating retreat by Trump - and I feel like he’s more likely to do something stupid than admit defeat.
Unironically, I really think he is following his “art of the deal” strategy to the letter: setting outrageous demands, creating urgency with deadlines in 48 hours, trying to create a sense that a solution is near (“good talks are happening”, extending the deadlines), threatening.
Trump’s problem is that Iran has had years if not decades to carefully think the possibility of an attack on them by US+IL through so they’re not falling for it, and responding to it with a coherent, clever and effective strategy for maximum effect. Edit 2: and it makes me wonder, where are all the US military and geopolitical strategists?
Edit I read a good one over the weekend: “There are diminishing returns on TACOs”
The worst thing about this whole Iran invasion is that it makes me want to eat Mexican food all the time. 
Live from Efficient Market Hypothesis Weekly, GS raises April Brent forecast from $85 (!) to $115.
Goldman Sachs energy analysts have been notably more optimistic than many of their Wall Street rivals lately. No longer. Judging by a note that the investment bank pushed out yesterday, they’re now throwing in the towel.
On Sunday, the investment bank’s oil analysts jacked up their forecast for Brent oil in April from $85 (lol) to $115, and say the peak in early April is likely to be even higher. They also lifted their forecasts for the year as a whole, as well as for 2027.
Let’s see why:
We upgrade our price forecast for two reasons. First, we now assume that Hormuz flows remain at only 5% of normal levels for a longer 6-week period before a gradual 1-month recovery.
6 weeks is the extended period of disruption!
Second, a recognition of the risks from the high concentration of production and spare capacity is likely to lead to structurally higher strategic stockpiling and long-dated prices.
No shit, Sherlock.
The obvious countermeasure to reimplement “order” would be to inexorably double-down on an ill-advised idea, when it is least expected.
Keep your eye out on Polymarket! Someone is going to get rich from all this.
Channelling my inner prepper. Looking to stock up on some goods before prices reset to Supermarkets etc.
Time to buy your big ticket items before price adjustments come through.
I don’t see where this violates that 
It doesn’t, because EMH doesn’t apply to the real world.
I think we can agree to disagree here 
