Welcome to HardturmstrasseBets!

Index investing is long and boring, and this is a result of spontaneously emerged idea to discuss small “side bets” that many forum members like to make. Here we

  • gamble on the development of financial instruments
  • discuss ideas of “side bets”
  • log trades (or bets), discuss their results
  • try to time the market
  • perform practical exercises with financial derivatives
  • discuss and try to learn what moves markets
  • do a long term experiments in trying to beat the market with active positioning

A necessary disclaimer:
We are guys in the internet, not financial advisors. What we do here is NOT investment, it is experimenting and gambling.

Always remember the difference between investing and gambling:

  • You should invest only money what you won’t need until you are retired (early or not)
  • You should gamble only with money that you can afford to lose. Expect them to be lost. Gambling, financial or not, is not a way to provide means for your daily life.

BIG FAT WARNING from Interactive Brokers concerning warrants on Swiss stocks
(This is from my notes, please let me know if something had changed)

Swiss physically settled warrants may lapse worthless unless closed out before expiration date.

You should understand the risks associated with an investment in the Warrants and should only reach an investment decision after careful consideration of those risks and a review of the Warrants’ issuance documents as published in the issuers’ websites. An investment in the Warrants bears a high risk of losing the entire initial investment.

The vast majority of share warrants listed for trading on the SIX Swiss Exchange (the “Warrants”) are physically settled. That means that upon exercise the underlying equity securities are delivered by the Warrants’ issuer to the investor.

Interactive Brokers (“IB”) does not support physical delivery of the underlying shares and does not provide an exercise facility for you to receive the Warrants’ underlying shares. Warrants held in your account with Interactive Brokers cannot be physically settled. Before investing in the Warrants you should understand that you will only be able to realise any market value of a Warrant exclusively by closing out the position with trades before expiration date. If a position is not closed before the Warrant’s expiration date, the Warrant will lapse worthless even if it has theoretical intrinsic market value.

IB will not automatically close out your position in the Warrants to prevent lapsing events. It is your sole responsibility to monitor expirations and last trading dates for the Warrants you hold, and manage your positions accordingly. You understand and acknowledge that bid/offer spreads may widen significantly as the Warrants near expiration, and you should take this into account when deciding when to close out your positions.

Under normal market conditions, the Warrants’ Issuers or the Lead Managers, as applicable, intend to provide bid and/or offer prices for the Warrants on a regular basis. However, the Issuers or the Lead Managers, as applicable, have made no firm commitment to provide liquidity by means of bid and/or offer prices for the Warrants, and have assumed no legal obligation to quote any such prices or with respect to the level or determination of such prices.

You should not rely on the ability to sell the Warrants at a specific time or at a specific price. You should note that prices quoted typically include a spread and therefore may deviate from the market value of the Warrants. In special market situations, the spread between the bid and offer prices in the secondary market may be temporarily expanded. Hence you might have to sell at a price considerably lower than the actual value of the Warrants at the time of their sale. By selling the Warrants in the secondary market you might receive less than the capital invested. If you do not sell the Warrants before expiry date, your investment will expire worthless.


Haven’t followed either, but my march 17 @3.03 puts are 52% up :joy:.


I actually somewhat regret that I didn’t depart from my index investing concept and haven’t bought puts on Wirecard. It was already in the news but people didn’t believe it. Oh well, probably it is more important to stick to the plan :rofl:.


you might not be late with CS. with shorting there is still quite an upside :wink:

I played a call warrant for my part, I bet on an (unlikely) recovery and/or an absorption by another institution.

Might as well say that the current performance is not great :sweat_smile:.

I am still betting on a takeover by another bank. My Warrant in the red is currently grimacing…

My observation is that those kind of crashes are seldom finished in one day.

My guess is it takes 2-3 days until all stop orders get activated, trading bots got triggered and investors get cold feet and sell in panic, and this is all around the world. If you want to bet on a recovery, I suggest to open your position on Friday.


Too bad this Friday is not the salary day, would need to wait another week to buy… and until then it will probably be back to over 2 CHF :rofl:

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If you like to gamble, I tell you I’m your man then using calls is a better idea, I find. Your stake that you can lose is known from the beginning.

P.S. Hmm, should we open a thread for financial gambling? And call it HardturmstrasseBets?

People who were posting above about financial bets, please let me know by PM if you agree that your posts will be transferred to a new thread :laughing:


No clue what’s a call (nor a put) so I stick to the basic stuff like buying shares :stuck_out_tongue:

Ahaha, fantastic name but might be perceived a bit as an anti-FIRE thread…

You have my swor… ehm my vote.


And my axe! :axe:

(20 characters)


Anyone here buying the CS stock like crazy? Or is it foolish to think they will recover over next year?

I did a month ago but now I have no more ammo left for such “fun” money play… I think it is a unique time right now in history where one can buy a big bank stock for only 1 CHF per share, crazy times. Note that I would not put big money into this but “fun” money as I see it more like gambling and not an investment.


you could easily make +50% or more as well as -50% or more within weeks/months. as others mentioned, it’s mostly a huge gamble. just bear in mind that the trend is down for many years now and governments are worried about the banking system as a whole, not individual banks and their shareholders. as long as you’re fine with the risk/reward, it’s fine to make a bet.


Thanks for the precision, I totally agree with you and I know there have also been stock splits. It’s really more about the symbolic fact or psychological effect that someone can say they bought a big bank stock for 1 CHF a piece. I see it like a good story to tell when you are old :joy:


more like: ‘it’s ok, grandson, everyone makes mistakes! i once bought into a swiss bank when it was a pennystock!’

joke aside, yeah, it’s a psychological thing. share price is basically irrelevant, it’s about market cap / enterprise value and the underlying fundamentals.

An idea for ParadeplatzBetz. There must be lots of anxiety about CS bonds (not AT) but I think it’s going to be repaid in full, as CS hadn’t technically defaulted. So, if their valuation is 10% of the nominal value or less, it might be worth to take a risk and buy them. 10x potential upside anyone?

P.S. I still offer to extract respective posts in this thread for a financial gambling thread, but I am not doing it without author’s explicit consent. Especially those who were actually gambling. PM me.

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that’s certainly what i’m doing, as described here i’m currently heavily underweight equities and hope to scale in at better prices soon.

What happens if one would sell some call options on CS within a far expiration date?
I aim to understand the status of the option in the case that the CS shares become UBS shares.