What would happen if Credit Suisse goes bust?

Latest news is pretty bad

1 Like

I haven’t followed it, what are the latest news?

17 posts were merged into an existing topic: HardturmstrasseBets

CS delays its annual report. That’s all I"ve heard.

I should really learn to use puts. Seems fun.

1 Like

Just saw by chance some headline in the NZZ that the US is putting its nose into CS, if I got that correctly…

1 Like

On twitter they are making it as big deal…like the next one that is going to fail (after SVB)

https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/credit-suisse-delays-publication-annual-report-following-sec-call-2023-03-09/

Some people (insiders I guess) have made millions with SVB yesterday with puts

2 Likes

Edit for the “still quite an upside” phrasing: indeed, if you are willing to bear the risk.

For the previous “unlimited upside” phrasing:
Nah, unlimited downside but limited upside. A stock can not go lower than 0. You can increase your upside by using more leverage but that increases the downside too and is limited by the amount of leverage you can acquire.

That’s one of the reasons why going long is so much easier than shorting. Shorting requires timing along with more risk management while going long “only” requires not needing the money for the duration of the investment (which, granted, also requires risk management and luck).

4 Likes

Ummmh… 2.01 CHF a few minutes ago…

1 Like

…including the next few days. New bottom: 1.7275 CHF.

1 Like

So the other bank would takeover the balance sheet? Good luck!
(By the way 1.68 CHF is the new low :dizzy_face:)

Price action is brutal. less than 1.60 now.
I feel bad for all the employees who have so many shares as part of the salary payout. Painful.

1 Like

you were right :smiley: another -30%

1 Like

Only those with high salaries have shares as part of their salary payouts. Don’t feel bad for them.

4 Likes

Usually above directors

1 Like

Another example for selling stock options (of the company you work in) as soon as possible…

don’t touch it with a long stick.
1.00 CHF is another 30% down.

3 Likes

But now it’s 1.928, +24% above the current low (1.555)!
A missed opportunity :smiling_imp: ?

1 Like

catching a bear market rally’s timing is a fool’s errand.
CS’s bear market is sustained for the last 5 years with an impressive 90% down.

1 Like

Who on earth would swallow Credit Suisse at this point?

If anything, I’d bet they’ll be carved up into pieces - with you as a shareholder ending up owning (part of) the bad (i.e. worthless) parts of the company. Even if they’re going to be restructured or recapitalised in some other, you’ll be holding the bag.

Your best bet with that, IMO, is honestly that they’ll survive as a whole and independently - possibly by government bail-out.

3 Likes