Check out this video, it explains why the performance calculation is bs if the initial value is very close to 0.
Its in german.
Only roughly +37% to 100k, less than what we did the last month (+47%). So 100k before halving?
- Bitcoin ownership is widely distributed across a variety of groups. 74% of Bitcoin owners hold less than around 0.01 worth of Bitcoin (~$350 as of November 6th, 2023).
- Around 40% of Bitcoin ownership falls into identifiable categories, including exchanges, miners, governments, balance sheets of public companies, and dormant supply.
- Significantly, some of these groups represent “sticky supply,” which could increase the impact of demand related tailwinds, including the 2024 Bitcoin halving or a potential spot Bitcoin ETF approval.
I found these facts from Greyscale interesting. Approx <10% of investors had >3500 USD exposure to bitcoin as of Nov 2023. Seems to me that there are some very large investors (most likely the early investors) who are profiting the most from the current bull run while a majority of people might have less than 1000 USD exposure to Bitcoin (assuming more than 100% return since Nov 2023). Am i reading it correctly?
https://www.grayscale.com/research/reports/demystifying-bitcoins-ownership-landscape
What time of day CET do they usually dump it, so I can BTD too? 
Well, I read this: it should be now at 100k+…
so as long you buy at these prices, you may say thank you to BlackRock 
Selling perpetual BTC futures gets really good returns at the moment. Have a look at Kraken’s funding rate. This month, it was over 0.007 %/hr more often than not, and for one exception above 0.
r_{annual} = {r_{hourly}}^{24 * 365} =1.85
So, an annualized performance of 85% for providing liquidity. I’d at least try it if I had an investment LLC.
Just let me understand. Selling a perpetual BTC Future means that I receive cash right now (used as collateral) and given the future was perpetual; I can technically keep the future as long as I want and just benefit on the future premia.
So the only risk is that i) the Broker goes disfunct or changes the busines model and forces me to buy-back or ii) BTC goes through the roof and I eventually need extremely large collateral?
But fundamentally, thats an interesting proposition… or did I get it wrong? not that good with futures trading.
You would want to cover the short futures with BTC because if the price of BTC goes up, you’ll pay that difference to those who bought the futures. In that way, the price movement will cancel out.
That is, your short futures are long USD and short BTC. Your BTC is, of course, a simple long BTC position. In effect you will be long USD.
Of course, that means you will need to sell some BTC (and also therefore also buy back some futures), if the price of BTC goes up, to cover the price difference paid for your short futures position.
The other way around, that means you should buy some BTC (and also therefore sell some more futures), if the price of BTC goes down, to use the price difference received from your short futures position.
What you will always receive (or pay) is the funding rate, which has been large and positive for this month. A positive funding rate means longs pay shorts. A negative funding rate means shorts pay longs.
I haven’t fully analyzed the actual products. There is of course some friction from trading (brokers need fees, liquidity providers want spread). And of course, as you spotted correctly, there is the chance that something blows up in unexpected ways (products, brokers…).
PS: Ah, yes, the perpetual futures never mature. So you theoretically you can keep your position for ever. No maturation is also the reason why a funding rate is needed. Else there would be no reason for the futures price to have any relation to the underlying.
At what price would you guys consider dumping in a significant amount of money? Below 50k CHF? Below 40k CHF?
I’m no sure it will go that far. I accelerated my buys a bit. don’t know if the dip holds until my bonus arrives end of month.
40k would be great, but imho this will never be seen again.
That would be nice. Putting in another 8k for 0.2 BTC 
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Im out of cash 
but buying every week/month at any price
In the past short before halving, similar 10-20% dump happens - smart money buying in. The deeper that goes the better later for the ramp up.
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I think I’m going to sell my 2 ETH for 0.12 BTC once it’s possible. Then add some additional cash so I end up with 0.4 BTC. That’s probably the maximum my risk tolerance will allow. If BTC goes to 1 million, great. I’ll reach my FIRE goal 5 years sooner. If the whole thing collapses, I’ll lose 1 year.
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Great tradeoff, I should probably do the same and sell my ETH and just buy BTC.
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