Future of Bitcoin

Sorry but Stranger Things is just a 1980s fantasy. No teenager had a poster of The Thing in their room, few saw it and almost everyone who did hated it.

And it’s also a terrible show.

Admittedly, I did hate it it at first, but in the end it’s a lovely series about friendship. And of course, it’s just a fantasy, there’s nothing too romantic about the 80ies (except for the gorgeous love songs :grin:)

Article in relation with the bankruptcy of Celsius. About terms & conditions and the rank of recovery in case of bankruptcy

Celsius spells out in its terms and conditions that any digital asset transferred to the platform constitutes a loan from the user to Celsius. Because there was no collateral put up by Celsius, customer funds were essentially just unsecured loans to the platform.

If I remember correctly we had someone on the forum heavily invested in Celsius, I hope they managed to get out on time…

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When people will be tired of getting hacked on Eth or Solana, they will look into bitcoin and its security model.

Edit: on bitcoin custody, this is really really really cool: Will Fedimints Bring Bitcoin To The World? - Bitcoin Magazine - Bitcoin News, Articles and Expert Insights

Fedimints could be an answer to the technical challenges of self custody and the issue of third party custody, something to keep an eye on

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I‘m sure you‘ll remain unfazed by the hundreds of millions of dollars stolen from cryptocurrency schemes and tout the next „innovation too keep an eye one“ that’ll supposedly solve the problems with safekeeping in due course.

It may be a real solution this time“

Yeah, next time will really be different.

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This is bitcoin, nothing related to the hacks we have seen on Eth and Solana these past two days. I have a strict no shitcoin policy.

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It‘s not really about the coin you’re using.
It’s about platforms failing to hold it for you or their users.

The issue with Bitcoin not being a well-suited for consumer payments,
you wanted to solve that with an overlaying layer (Lightning) as well.

I do something somewhat similar as I am lending the money I put aside for my taxes (~$35k) in the form of USDC.

You are really trying your best to mix up everything. And it is actually all about the coin you are using.

Fedimints is about custody, exactly what you need to avoid yesterday’s hack on Solana. It is not using another coin, it is using bitcoin. Same for Lightning, you are still using bitcoin and you actually don’t even need lightning for payment, layer 1 works just fine.

As for the money I am lending or borrowing, it is peer to peer with…Bitcoin in collateral, no third party risk with other shitcoins such as cel or Luna or whatever…

Good luck trying to spin it again and again, a better investment of time would be to read the article I posted so we can discuss something interesting.

I did.

That‘s what I‘ve been saying all along: Custody and safekeeping is a problem.
But you‘ll never cease to come up with new technical solutions to that issue.
And they don‘t inspire great confidence. Your own linked article spells it out:

„If the idea takes off, there may be a mix of larger, more well-capitalized Fedimints that offer cheaper fees and certain advanced features, and smaller community Fedimints that are truer to the tribe-guardian model.

Fedimint critics are quick to point out that the compromise on self-custody is the main tradeoff and biggest risk of all, and that these new platforms could be used for a dizzying array of “rug-pulls,” where mint operators collude to steal funds ** from unsuspecting users.“

And that‘s the thing: Complexity and power in the hands of few operators.

This is the reality: You can‘t trust platform operators - not even the well-intentioned from messing up and allowing hackers and other malicious actor to steal Coins.

:point_right: It’s not so much the Bitcoin protocol and blockchain itself - it’s rather the custodial and exchange solutions laid on top of it that are abused to steal millions, dozens, hundreds of millions of dollars.

And it‘s happening again and again.

That‘s what undermines public confidence in cryptocurrencies.

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Still works over reputation, like drugs (another physical good). You could also split that into multiple exchanges. Parallel with different vendors or sequential with known honest counterparties.

You have to provide a phone number. Organising burner SIM and burner Phone and brushing up on opsec shouldn’t be insurmountable challenges for added convenience and security.

A swiss number is needed though. By law you need to provide your name and address to have a swiss SIM card. Preventing circumvention has proven difficult as you can imagine.

Significant use by drug dealers and sans-papier activists.

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To me the goal of Fedimints is to use it at a trusted level e.g. Family members. So typically most of your family won’t have the technical knowledge for self-custody but a couple of people can take care of it for everyone - - > net positive.

If you use the biggest Fedimint managed by people you don’t know, then you have the exact same trade-off of the usual third-party custody like exchange

I think the problem is that anonymous value already is in the gray zone. On it’s own it is not illegal yet, but nearly everything around it is. What is there left apart from secretly saving income under your mattress? Even then nobody can take that money legally anymore. You can only spend it on small-time consumption. That’s where you secretly withheld it from anyways.

Edit: On a second though you have to declare it for taxes. So a big part of that anonymity is already lost.

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If we argue the case of politically persecuted and other criminals. Then we aren’t particularily afraid of breaking the law and also ready to inconvenience ourselves a bit. Especially if that lowers the chance of getting caught and adds nothing significant to the punishment.

Dissidents in particular might also be able to receive donations. Cryptocurrency is highly mobile and enables you to pay for quite some services already. E.g. someone from the other side of the world donates over your website. You use it to pay for hosting space. No compromise of anonymity needed on your side. You might also be able to convert it back to cash through (probably) criminal services. And it is easy to take with you, if you have to flee.

So yes, especially in those cases it has certain benefits over cash (including anonymity). I don’t know about the dissidents, but online drug marketplaces have become a viable economic sector. It functions exclusively over cryptocurrency. The anonymity and convenience seem good enough. Even though the pressure from police agencies all over the world must be severe.

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I believe my bitcoin understanding is quite good, even I have not invested in it.
It has some really unique and revolutionary monetary features.

But sth that has really freaked me out, and it is the reason I did not invest in it years ago is why the goverments / central banks are allowing bitcoin to become a real threaten to the establishment.

  • a) or they are already owing whale wallets.
  • b) or they are sure they can execute a law that forbidds holding bitcoin, as Roosevelt did in 1933 in USA for gold.
  • c) or they might be using the crypto burble just as a lab to push the technology enough to build their CBDC. I believe CBDC is a sweet dream for goverments / central banks. They could track any transaction and confiscate any wallet.

For last 10 year a lot of resources and talented people have been working in the crypto wave. Goverment would not have had enough resources to achieve such a progress in so short time by themself. This is the reason why I am some how eventually bearish in bitcoin. So personally I believe we are living the scenario (c) and in a few year (b).

do u have in mind any other reason why the establishment is allowing all this?

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I don’t think bitcoin is a real threat to most governments and even central banks, if they are financially properly managed.

Sure the ECB is getting nervous, trying to save the Euro but not knowing how and seeing cryptos as a threat. In the end I don’t think they will go down the same road as China (CBDC), because this is a really dystopian idea if thought through.

The US has basically classified it as commodity, just like Switzerland. It will be taxed the same way as gold and have a similar function as soon as volatility goes down. It is transparent and hard to hide.

I see the real value for bitcoin is in emerging countries where most people are unbanked and/or are getting killed by inflation and their dependency on the IMF.

Most of central banks and governments are broken. Switzerland is not the norm.

Currently USD is a global reserve currency, I believe around 60% is USD.

When bitcoin volatility will be lower many central banks might follow the steps of El Salvador.
If small countries in Africa and South America start to switch there reserve from USD to bitcoin, the global demand of USD would be getting down, then FED might face some problems and US could not export inflation anymore.
Also probably US has much less gold we think they have in Fort Knox. If bitcoin become a new gold alternative, they could not lie there.
Many people think Gaddafi and Hussein regimes were hitting because they wanted to abandon the dollar.

I don’t think US (China, ECB…) would allow a bitcoin standard.

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Why wouldn’t they simply use a stable coin? Less volatility and closer to what most people in those countries would want if they have the choice (dollarisation, which does have downsides for the governments tho since they lose control of monetary levers).

Esp. if ethereum removes the concerns around carbon footprint, stable coins on top of ETH (or a CBDC) would be enough for those.

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The counter party risk remains with stable coins and most are backed by the dollar that can easily be censored by the US government. Also most stable coins are centralized and created by a single company, an additional risk. For short term daily transactions stable coins are not a bad solution, for long term savings bitcoin is safer. We will have to see how the lightning network evolves.
Etherium is still under development for the next few years, that can be good or bad. Bitcoin is unmutable and undestroyable. Nobody can change that.

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I am not sure many countries are going to hold too many dollars after they have seen what happened to the Russian reserves. If you don’t behave how the USA wants you to, your money is gone.

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