Future of Bitcoin

It’s different because in this case, there’s an inflow of money that’s not from pure investing, that’s not poured into the system in exchange of a hope for future returns. A customer is not a greater fool expecting to resell the product they just bought for a higher price. To be clear, by greater fool I’m referring to Greater fool theory - Wikipedia, it’s not simply someone paying for something.

If I create a company using my own 10kCHF, and I manage to grow this company, get clients who buy my product, the company is more valuable because of this cashflow. Even assuming I only sell the company for parts and only get back my initial 10kCHF, along the way I’d have gotten a salary out of the sold products, so the company itself would have created value. I would have captured some of the value, while the customer would have captured the other part by getting a product they thought was worth the money without expecting to flip it for more money later.

Now if instead I create a company with 10kCHF but this company does nothing, and I just keep paying some fees to keep it running, my investment decreases in value. Once I close it, I’ll get back less than my initial 10k, while having paid fees that didn’t generate any cashflow.

The fees are the reason why BTC is not zero-sum for the pool of BTC investors, it’s negative-sum, meaning that if you sum all the money that investors got out and in of BTC, you end up with less than 0. Of course that doesn’t mean that some investors won’t still end up with profits.

Edit: I just reread the “Top replies” and realized that the greater fool theory and most of this reasoning has already been mentioned and explained several times already, so unfortunately I don’t think I’m adding much, sorry for the noise! Some posters have explained all that better than me, so I’d suggest to reread their posts.

I think it’d be helpful if you added a link to your source. I’m wondering which definition they use for “realized”, as I doubt for instance that they have stats about when investors realize (i.e. through selling their BTC) their gains and losses.

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Actually I believe it means cost basis of people who hold BTC as long positions (excluding traders)

https://www.bitcoinmagazinepro.com/charts/long-term-holder-realized-price/

Agree. Sorry for the noise as well from my side. Reading from the beginning, it’s repeating.

I’ll use only @Oliv posts, because mostly congruent with my views. Before I take a break from all the Bitcoin talk and detox, take this:

From a quick look it seems that this relies on chain data, which is not representative given that most trading now happens via centralized exchanges and ETFs.

See: Realized Price | BM Pro

No post in 21 hours… i was hoping for some commentary on the almost-reaching-100k business

It’s Saturday 22:30. Sure a few messages will arrive tomorrow or at least on Monday :wink:

Also, there is not really much new to add. The thread is huge, most topics have been discussed.
And, due to the very different levels on knowledge on bitcoin it is a bit tedious at times.

So i will just leave it here with a tweet by Edward Snowden…

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Hi @Cortana, this article regarding ETH will cheer you up: https://cointelegraph.com/news/ether-price-correction-2025-target

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For those who haven’t yet bought Bitcoin, you will be able to buy some during the next bear market, below 70k if you are lucky :slightly_smiling_face:

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This could also read:

For those who haven’t yet bought Bitcoin at 100K, you will be able to buy some during the next bear market, below 70k 150k if you are lucky :slightly_smiling_face:

I read it as following

“Please buy BTC to keep the bull run going” :slight_smile:

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Maybe. Maybe not.

Do you try to time the market with stocks?
If not, why would you do it with bitcoin?
Passive investors should not suddenly become traders

DCA every week/month and go ahead with your life.

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Yes I absolutely do time the market in crypto. I don’t say I buy the perfect bottom and sell the perfect top, nobody can do it. But it’s just I don’t think DCA and hold in the crypto market is the best way to accumulate a big bag of BTC. And by the way I don’t like to feel a -76% and be underwater during 2 years of bear market :upside_down_face: . But the goal at the end is try to sell high to buy more BTC later.

Lol like if the shrimps in this forum can move the price of BTC :sweat_smile: :rofl:

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I think you might not know but there are many discord groups where this is exactly what is being tried. To buy coins in tandem.

If retail investors can move the price or not is different topic. But this is what the promoters of BTC like Saylor are promoting on daily basis with quotes like following -:

  • get in now it’s early days
  • Get in before price hits 1M
  • You only need 0.1 BTC
  • Selling BTC for house is like selling real asset for fake asset
  • BTC is demonetising real estate
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Requires solid strategy and lots of discipline. not saying it cant be done.
But this is not a strategy for the average joe

Yes true, like every cycle. 2020-2021 was BTC to 100k, dimond hands, pay a tesla with bitcoin, it’s the supercycle etc. This time it probably won’t change, at a point we’ll find a top, and BTC will crash ~50% (or more/less who knows). Volatility decreases over time but we should’nt become religious and not take profits. Like a said the goal is to take profit to buy more BTC.

The key is to stay focus and rational. And have a plan. :bulb:

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The average joe is the exit liquidity :thinking: :face_with_peeking_eye:

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Paycheck from fiat mining job. Today I was exit liquidity. As I was last month… and the month before… :joy:

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