Future of Bitcoin

I give up. After 2h of discussion about Bitcoin to convince someone, I give up. You shouldn’t have any. Just don’t. cheers

1 Like

Dont try to convince people, its pointless and ultimately leads to rejection .
Better act as a knowledgeable ressource in case somebody is truly interested in learning more…

https://bitcoinmagazine.com/takes/heres-how-to-talk-about-bitcoin-at-the-thanksgiving-table

3 Likes

As knowledge gives power, I don’t mind to keep it for myself if no one is asking. I usually don’t force others to learn something, unless it’s our children, of course. Otherwise if people prefer to stay ignorant, I don’t mind. This gives me an advantage on the intellectual side, which is getting more important as I am becoming older. Might sound snobbish, but it is a pragmatic approach that makes my life simpler.

3 Likes

Agree.
The combination of “talked about Bitcoin 2yrs ago with him” and price near 100k lead to the talk. With the price increase, the amount of conversations I participate (voluntary or not) increase proportionally.

2 Likes

Each time it goes up I just share this gif on my instagram stories to get the non-believers more jealous :laughing:

Leonardo Dicaprio Cheers GIF - Leonardo Dicaprio Cheers The Great Gatsby - Discover & Share GIFs

3 Likes

Bitcoin Is Dead - Every time Bitcoin has been declared ‘dead’

Anyway, that was just for fun.

I was lucky to put a modest amount into the IBIT ETF before the recent run up of the BTC price. When I then read that options on the ETF were also being introduced I was very interested and became even more enthusiastic when I saw the high premiums (I was specifically looking at writing far out of the money put options and taking those premiums to purchase more IBIT ETF units).

When submitting the order to UBS I got a clear message that UBS does not (yet) support IBIT ETF options. WTF?

So then set up an IBKR account, transferred some money in for the margin commitment, filled in the cumbersome forms, etc. and here as well: they don’t support it (for customers in Switzerland). WTF?

Why is this? What’s the way around it?

Why do you say this? I’m far from an expert on BTC, but…

Reduced supply

  • smaller halvings
  • less ROI from mining
  • people losing their wallets

Increased demand

  • ETF’s
  • Mass market interest in BTC
  • Better regulatory framework

Isn’t convincing more people one of the main ways the price could keep going up?

2 Likes

Or are people being convinced because the price is going up?

VIAC support IBIT.

You can also buy MSTR in IBKR which can be viewed as a kind of BTC proxy.

1 Like

I do have already the iShares Bitcoin Trust with max 5%. But you mean a different investment in VIAC. Didn’t find the MSTR or fund in the list. Can you drop a link or official name please?

Hadn’t thought of using Microstrategy as a proxy but looking at it more closely I’m not convinced:

"As of December 4, 2024, MicroStrategy Incorporated (MSTR) holds approximately 402,100 bitcoins, acquired at a total cost of $23.4 billion, averaging $58,263 per bitcoin.

With Bitcoin trading around $95,666, the current market value of these holdings is about $38.4 billion.

MicroStrategy’s market capitalization stands at approximately $89.61 billion.

This indicates that the company’s Bitcoin assets constitute roughly 43% of its total market value."

I don’t want that exposure to their non-BTC business.

3 Likes

Yes, unfortunately, it is an imperfect vehicle for BTC exposure, but at least it is easily available if other avenues are not possible. Coinbase is another one that is somewhat correlated.

What i mean is… people who bought bitcoin at 0.01 USD experienced astronomical gains.
People who bought at 100 USD, have experienced 950X
People who bought at 1000 USD, have experienced 95X
People who bought at 10000 USD, have experienced 9.5X

So I do not believe that anyone buying bitcoin in Dec 2024 can expect similar returns like people who bought BTC in Dec 2014. The larger the asset class becomes, the lower the returns would be.

For Example -: Michael Saylor average cost of BTC purchases is about 58,000 USD (as per his CNBC interview yesterday). For him to experience 100X gain in 10 years, the price of BTC need to be 5.8 Million USD. Now mathematically everything is possible, but it is very unlikely.

2 Likes

Got it - the flipside to that argument would be that volatility / risk would be much lower going forward as well.

1 Like

Maybe another proxy suggestion would be companies involved in mining and/or blockchain technology such as those included in this ETF: BKCH (Global X Blockchain ETF)

Still holding on my 5.5 ETH. I wonder if it will get back to 0.06 BTC/ETH in the coming months.

Sure it is possible
But I don’t personally count on that.

Even Michael Saylor says volatility is a feature of BTC not a bug.

Anyone up for some arbitrage?
Bitcoin crashes to $62,000 on Upbit after South Korea enacts emergency martial law