Future of Bitcoin

Makes sense. But then rather than calculating 1 BTC = 27 Million USD by 2050, we should stop doing such analysis. This analysis gives an illusion to investor that by investing in BTC they can increase their value while the reality would be they can simply maintain the value (so called store of value)

While looking at such analysis, for layman it would appear that BTC is increasing in value but in reality as per your comment, the USD is supposed to be reducing in value while BTC value remains stable.


Those are just calculations based on models with the prices up until now. As long the model is not invalidated…
Anyway, 1btc = 1btc if you don’t measure against USD. And it would be beneficial to measure it against e.g. a basket of goods. Not sure if such exists yet.

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Would CPI make sense ? It has basket of goods .

I’d rather take just the goods you can pay with btc and are effectivly paid with btc.
Otherwise it’s jus a calculation against USD, CHF etc.
And with places like Lugano or Zug probably it can be done to a small extent (well, I know that the shops calculate in CHF and set the btc price accordingly… so no knowledge gains here).
As I write this, I see probably it’s too early to talk about this :sweat_smile:

Kinda related


And again, arbitrage demands that there is no importance in unit of account. Value can, of course, only be measured in relation to something else. But if you go BTC → CHF → Sugar, or BTC → ETH → 10-Year Treasury Note → Lean Hogs → Sugar, or directly BTC → Sugar is irrelevant. You will always get the same price of sugar for BTC.

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60 blocks to go… :tada:

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Fees exploded… 1000 - 2500 sats/vB.
An explanation by Jimmy Song.


So… where is the big increase in the price of bitcoin after the halving?? :sweat_smile: :sweat_smile: :sweat_smile:

Wait and see :sweat_smile:

After the 4th halving, every month ca. 13500 new bitcoins are created. Inflation rate is now 0.85%.

13500 was about the neflow of a good day into the ETFs.

And if history repeats:


„After the halving“ is a period of 4 years

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So just we are clear, the main reason for BTC to double or quadruple over the next 4 years would be that we can mine less of them, right?

What about the actual use , it is also increasing ? Are we seeing increase in adoption in terms of „payment transaction share versus fiat „ or „store of value replacement of Gold“.? As far as I know people are buying BTC just like a stock - they are not selling their gold to buy BTC.

Question : What’s your exit strategy on BTC for this cycle (even if maybe we’re in a supercycle and the 4 years cycle doesn’t exist anymore) ? Are you DCA out since à definit price ? Or are you watching some indicators on-chain etc ? Or do you plan to exit in one time ? It’s easy to buy but hard to sell :no_mouth:. I won’t be this guy who dimond hand the top and endure 80% drawdown, even if I hardly trust BTC in the long run.

Rebalance a crypto position to base asset allocation everytime it doubles or halves.

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Yeah that’s me, RSI 14 of 70+ and I’ll see where I am.

I have alts though so the stones found in ancient Inca ruins said that “When the goat blood looks pale you need to wait for the white crow to fly three times, and then the moon will shine on you”. meaning the theory for alts is that they come after the BTC and ETH cycles.

Can’t wait to get out of this shit to be honest.

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What is the rational behind and where (which platform/bank/broker) you would prefer to buy it?
Thanks in advance :slight_smile:

I can‘t lose my assets. I don‘t have to worry about being hacked.

Btw holy molly ETH.

ETF approval incoming

What is the best way to buy it?