Future of Bitcoin

Wallet of Satoshi. Simple and it’s working without any issues. Anything else would be a hassle (except maybe the Aqua wallet).

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I just took home a 10x on a couple of alts, probably bad timing (as usual for me, but yadda bull run, yadda m00n, yadda I couldn’t be arsed with) but 10 birds in hand beat 20 in the bush.

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This summer vacations, we will be exploring Aqua wallet with learning sessions about the main net and hardware wallets (I think we’ll go for Jade). Aqua wallet has the advantage to have LN, Liquid and main net in one app.

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Need an orange pill? :orange_heart:

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HODL :alien:.

The BTC juvenile nutjobs seem happy that Trump talks about a “strategic bitcoin reserve”. I thought “govt bad”?

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This guy doesn’t know what he is talking about…
Example? Why should my gold be gone after 27 years??? Whats the cost to store Gold?

Government has ceesed to be bad for Bitcoin maximalists for quite some time now. Part of the Moon thesis is adoption by governments and regulations. Bitcoin ETFs are an originalist’s nonsense, for example (not your keys, not your coins).

Centralisation is going strong into the narratives of those who are interested by crypto only for their fiat value. Make of it what you may.

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I always made that it was for the “dirty fiat”, the pseudo anarchic theories were always the domain of deranged idiots and scammers.

He has so much exposure to Bitcoin, the only way Bitcoin holds its value if people continue to buy it. So I understand why he is coming up with all the new ideas to promote it.

The first discussion was Bitcoin will replace fiat to transact. That didn’t play out.

So now the whole bandwagon will be “store of value” because it doesn’t need a change in anything in daily life. And as people like to use backtesting to make future return predictions, it’s an easy sell.

If you would have invested 1000 USD in BTC 10 years back, it would have become XYZ. Hence it’s a new asset class. So allocate some percentage of your portfolio for it. This will atleast ensure that people who already have bitcoins will not lose money and new buyers would need to “hope” that HODL between 2024 and 2034 will result in astronomical gains as well. What would really happen? No one can tell.

I think BTC is not replacing gold because Gold as well is at all time high. For me, BTC is just like a stock of a company which has following traits.

  • it’s awesome
  • Do not make any profits
  • It’s products are not understood by many
  • doesn’t glitter
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When did he say that? I thought he said approx. 62 yrs a gold bar.

Its only a store of value if enough people believe it is.
However, the same is true for gold.

It seems a growing number of people and also institutions believe btc can add value to their portfolio.

I do not want to bet against that (the market believe) and allocate a small portion of the portfolio to btc.

This seems logical to me when i buy market cap weighted index funds.

But i agree, the Saylor talk was not convincing.

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I agree.

The only difference between Gold and BTC is that Gold glitters and have been around for long time to keep people interested. Plus if everyone forget about Gold someday, if someone still has some gold at disposal, they can atleast make jewellery and wear it.

In past Gold was the currency, then it was used to back a currency and even when it was removed as a peg, somehow people maintained their trust.

I don’t expect any store of value to deliver above inflation returns because ideally that’s what store of value means I guess. However this is expected return. Realised return depends a lot on people’s frame of mind and as history has shown us in some periods Gold has outperformed even stocks.

BTC represents about 1% of world equity market cap. So yeah 1% allocation for world equity investors would make sense. Having said that , I am not sure how much difference would it make to overall portfolio for future. In order to make a meaningful impact, it needs to outperform VT significantly over next 10-20 years.

P.S -: I really believe that underlying technology of bitcoin is brilliant. It would have been great if more research was done and it could be leveraged to make banking system more secure. I heard some banks are trying to do so. Let’s see.

Ita funny. I had the same mindset some time ago. If i had to bet i would say you work in the financial industry :wink:

Today after lots of research i believe the technology is basically shit (for most applications except btc) because its nothing more than an inefficient and slow database.

The magic comes in for btc when you consider network effects, green transition by using(“subsidising”) suprplus renewable energy,…

Financially i see it as an inflation hedge, and even more a stagflation hedge, in times when equities dont really perform despite inflation. I dont really see a tight monetary regime with these debt levels.

Anyway. I do not know what’s going to happen. Small allocation to improve risk return

Well, when I said tech , I meant the whole thing. It is a network of computers sharing blockchain almost impossible to hack for now. Similar tech could be built for banks as well and I know there are some pilots.

Actually I neither work in Tech, nor in finance. I just try to understand things I invest in. For BTC, I still don’t get it. So I just try to listen to people and the narrative today is a bit strange . On one hand it is store of value and on the other hand it is going to be outperforming all the value creating assets. :slight_smile:

Going forward, I think instead of digital gold, it should be compared to Hermes Birkin. A luxury which everyone wants but only few can have and is limited in production.

P.S -: I don’t own Gold or Birkin .

The production of a hermes birkin bag is the discretion of Hermes. They can make as few or as many they please.

Nobody can decide to make more btc, there is no single entity to control it.

Well, even if Hermes wants to increase the production, they need to train so many craftsmen to do the job. But I agree, it’s technically possible. Although they are increasing by 7% their capacity every year.

Similarly as BTC was built from nothing in first place, anyone can technically try to use the same logic and build a network. Let’s call it BTC2.

The issue is not that BTC2 is not possible. The issue is that BTC1 is already there and it’s tough to compete with it without spending all the money that people spent over the years.

So, even though I understand that BTC is limited. It doesn’t actually mean you cannot have BTC2.

The only reason BTC2 is not there is because there is no real use of BTC1 in first place. So the only reason to build a competition network with exact same characteristics would be the hope that even the BTC2 will have same fan following. There is very low incentive to do so and a very high chance of failure.

This is why I believe most other crypto coins are positioning themselves as problem solvers like identity theft, smart contracts , etc etc.

Anyways, I am the least expert on this topic. I just tried to explain my understanding of what’s going on. I might be completely wrong. It could very well be that times have changed and people love more the things that are not used, have a charisma, are virtual and cannot be experienced versus the stuff that actually exists in real world.

Imagine we all just woke up after sleeping for 20 years. And someone told us that nowadays people are paying more money to buy a string of characters than food, vacations, entertainment and everything else they can buy. And the main reason is that there could only be 21 million of these codes ever.

For fun only
People on Mars might want to tokenise human beings on earth. Based on what we know today. We would get to 10 billion and then will never go up again in number. So they should invest their wealth in human token where each token is pegged to one human on earth. A new token can only be created when the net human population increases. The rate of increase of humans is limited and there is no one person or central authority to change this. The authorities might try but it’s not really easy. Martians might benefit from this deflationary asset class :slight_smile:

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Just buy Bitcoin, HODL and learn about it.

Read:

  1. Bitcoin Information & Educational Resources
  2. https://planb.network/
  3. The Bitcoin Standard by Saifedean Ammous (available for free as PDF approved by author)
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Thanks for sharing

Quick question. I am assuming you are invested in Bitcoin.

Could you share your estimate of expected annualised return from BTC for the future 10-20 year period in CHF terms?

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You might want to watch Michael Saylor’s keynote to the bitcoin conference. He gives a 21 to 37% ARR until 2045 (that’s the slide at 18m31s):

Very optimistic, but as the master says why not have some just in case it really takes off…

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