FIRE at 50 - Optimizing liquidity, risks and taxes

As some of you are aware, I’m planning to retire at 50. Currently I’m trying to finalize a strategy that balances liquidity, the major risks and tax efficiency. Here is an asset overview of what I’m expecting to have at 50:

Free assets: 2000k invested + 150k cash
3rd pillar: 250k (5 accounts, withdrawal 60-64)
2nd pillar: 600k (2 accounts, withdrawal 64/65)
Target: 70% equities overall

My current approach:

  1. Max out pension fund buy-ins from 44-50:
    Use my savings rate completely for 3rd pillar contributions and pension fund buy-ins and move everything into 2 vested benefit accounts (likely Finpension) once I quit my job. Invest it 100% in equities. Huge tax savings due to highest marginal tax rate of my career and also afterwards lower taxes on dividends, wealth and lower AHV-contributions. Plus it naturally shifts my overall equities allocation down to the desired target of 70%.

  2. Mental bucketing:

  • Free assets: 10 years of withdrawals, 60% equities, 33% bonds, 7% cash
  • 3rd pillar: Years 11-14, 80% equities, 20% bonds
  • 2nd pillar: Year 15+, 100% equities
  1. Dynamic Withdrawals:
  • Overall target: 70% equities
  • Bull markets → sell equities for living expenses
  • Bear markets → sell bonds first and use cash-reserve in very bad markets
  • Rebalance additionally within free assets if overall equities-allocation drifts too much (leaving the 65-75% band)
  • Rebalance in 2nd/3rd pillar accounts only in extremely rare scenarios (stock markets increase so much that holding only bonds and cash within free assets would still result in more than 75% equities overall).
  1. Major risks:
  • Sequence of return risk: Probably the highest risk for retiring that young. Not eliminated but reduced by holding bonds (70% equities overall) and having a cash-reserve that could cover 2 full years of expenses.
  • Longevity: In my opinion almost entirely eliminated by AHV which will reduce withdrawals significantly once it starts. Should guarantee the assets to survive till 90-100.

Open questions for the community:

  1. What do you think about the cashflow rebalancing? Selling equities/bonds for expenses to stay within the target band.
  2. Does it make sense to keep retirement accounts (2nd/3rd pillar) mostly in equities and low in bonds? In terms of flexibility and tax optimization.
  3. Is mental bucketing actually better than just treating everything as one portfolio with a simple glidepath? Would it be easier and more efficient to keep all 3 portfolios (free assets, 2nd and 3rd pillar) the same?
  4. Any other ideas for reducing the sequence of return risk other than cash + bond-first withdrawals for such scenarios?
  5. What do you think about the approach as a whole? Things I missed? Things you would do differently?
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IMO: no. See my recent thread: Which assets where

It would be better to keep bonds and yielding assets in tax wrapper to avoid taxable income and reduce growth (you pay on exit) and instead take tax free capital gains outside the wrapper.

I’d treat as a single portfolio, but optimize the placement of each asset within pillar 2, 3a or GIA.

e.g. if you aim for 70/25/5 equity/bonds/cash

then maybe put cash/bonds in pillar 2/3a and then equities in GIA.

it would be a PITA to mirror the exact allocation across all 3 buckets as each change would have to impact each one.

What I’m doing:

  • reduce required expenses by hedging housing costs (buy a house to live in)
  • have income generating assets to reduce amount you need to sell: e.g. real estate, dividend stocks
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Doesn’t it also depend on what income we are talking about? Currently dividends are way higher than CHF bonds coupons. And you have to take into account that while lower growth in retirement accounts does result in lower withdrawal taxes, there are 2 disadvantages:

  1. More free assets and less retirement assets → higher AHV contributions and higher wealth taxes.
  2. Holding cash/bonds only in retirement accounts gives you less flexibility in bear markets for selling bonds for expenses. You basically would need to sell stocks within your free assets and swap a certain amount of bonds into stocks within retirement accounts?

No, because you can re-balance between accounts e.g. if you want to use cash and not sell equity, then:

  • In GIA sell the equity you need to get the cash to use
  • In 3a, use the cash there to buy equity you sold in GIA

If equity returns are strong, you sell them to live off, so reduces GIA balance - but yes, you would need to balance income tax, wealth tax, AHV and withdrawal taxes.

There’s not enough information to give a right answer. I had to make a spreadsheet which simulates all of this as there are so many moving parts, there is no obvious answer.

In my case, wealth + AHV is around 1% in total and marginal income tax rate is between 23% and 28%. Withdrawal taxes are about 9.5%.

It depends on the situation, e.g. AHV is capped at around 9 million, so if you have 20 million of assets, then the AHV impact is capped whereas the withdrawal taxes are probably not. Cantons also have different tax treatments.

One advantage of keeping all cash/bonds within 2nd pillar would be that there is an ideal transition from your pension fund account (no risk, fixed interest) to cash/bond funds (low risk, fixed interest). So no big transactions needed and timing is insignificant.

What do you think about the big buy-ins between 44-50?

That’s probably near optimal. If you can split the available over the last 6 years you reduce your topslice income.

If retirement is more than 6 years away, I’d be tempted to maybe pay some in earlier years to hedge a little bit. but if your job is secure and income profile is predictable, there’s no need for this.

But a word of caution: I was also going to spread buy-ins over 6 years, but now I want to accelerate FIRE and so have to do it over 4 years. So this isn’t the most tax-optimal. This is another reasons that you might not try to optimize absolutely fully, but take a broader approach which is more flexible e.g. where flexing your retirement date still allows for PF capacity to be used without drastically impacting tax efficiency.

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@xerox5003 gave me a couple of points personally that might add to the discussion.

  1. While PF buy-ins filling up the gap completely, max. contributions to 3rd pillar and postponing withdrawal to 60-65 might be very tax-efficient and saving you probably over 100k in taxes, there are still risks involved with that strategy. What happens with the pension fund and your buy-ins if you die early and you aren’t married? What about the current discussions of increasing withdrawal taxes on 2nd/3rd pillar assets and the general vibe of limiting flexibility? You can’t know for sure if there won’t be major changes within 10-20 years.

  2. Focus on high-dividend ETFs for equities. While they cost more and have higher implicated income taxes, the psychological advantage of constant income is pretty huge.

  3. Flexibility and having more assets as free assets is more important than tax savings.

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So, you’re expecting to live off 75k p.a.   Did I get that right?

If so, a distribution yield of (just) 3.75% on the 2000k assets would get you there (of course, more tax as it’s counted as income versus selling down your nest egg realizing capital gains).
  You probably would have never guessed this coming from Goofy, but I would look into a dividend/dividend growth allocation (even with ETFs if necessary), at least partially, to finance the cash flow you expect to consume.

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max. contributions to 3rd pillar and postponing withdrawal to 60-65 might be very tax-efficient and saving you probably over 100k in taxes

If you retire at 50, withdrawing at 60-65 is just 10-15 years away. Not long at all. Plus you save not just income taxes, but AHV+Wealth taxes.

By putting an additional 20% of my savings into the pension, I get a 30% bigger retirement pot.

Is it worth putting in 200k if you get the 200k back 10-15 years later with an additional 300k? If you were not going to spend the 200k in the first 15 years anyway, then IMO, that’s a yes. If you need that 200k in the first 15 years, or you are not leaving enough margin, then probably the answer is a no.

What happens with the pension fund and your buy-ins if you die early and you aren’t married?

They go to my partner and kids.

What about the current discussions of increasing withdrawal taxes on 2nd/3rd pillar assets and the general vibe of limiting flexibility?

Changes are not so big, if they even go through.

You can’t know for sure if there won’t be major changes within 10-20 years.

There’s always uncertainty. Maybe they bring in capital gains tax on GIA. Maybe wealth taxes and income taxes increase.

We can only deal with what is, and what is likely to be.

Focus on high-dividend ETFs for equities. While they cost more and have higher implicated income taxes, the psychological advantage of constant income is pretty huge.

Agree. If these are in a tax wrapper, then it doesn’t even have the income tax downside.

Flexibility and having more assets as free assets is more important than tax savings.

I agree with this. You should always have enough in the period before you access your pension.

I also have the advantage of being able to withdraw early to pay off my mortgage. If you plan to buy a home to live in, this additional flexibility is worth bearing in mind.

If push comes to shove, I can leave the country and withdraw the pension if something extraordinary comes up.

I expect my normal expenses to be around 75k/year. Normal in the sense of being able to live my life as I imagine it today. But I’m aiming for 3 million to be able to spend 100-120k/y including taxes/AHV. I imagine I would do more travel and activities once retired.

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Got nothing to add except congrats :flexed_biceps:

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Congrats for the plan I guess? Because I‘m currently 16 years and 2.68 million assets away from it :smiley:

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Spending 100k-120k/y still seems very feasible (to me) with 2150k assets at age 50 and another 850k to 1000k (or more, with tax sheltered payouts) starting at age 60.[∑]

Here is how I would invest the money (at FIRE/50, or maybe before, YMMV):

  1. decide for yourself whether you can live with FX risk (don’t hedge, though, IMO)
  2. pick suitable dividend and/or dividend growth ETFs
  3. enjoy the cash flow they generate
    fin
  4. optional: put together your own “ETF” of dividend payers and/or dividend growers based on your personal preferences[$]

I.e.:

  • No FX risk, just ETFs:   pile into CHDVD and equivalents (MSCI Switzerland IMI Dividend ESG, etc).
  • FX risk, just ETFs: I believe there’s topics in this forum that discuss some of these ETFs (Monkey-brain ETFs: Dividend ETFs - Investing / Portfolios - Mustachian Post Community)
  • No FX risk, hand-picked companies: I’ll share a more detailed recipe below under “Cash Flow Picking” below.
  • FX risk, hand-picked companies: I’ll share a more detailed recipe below, see Cash Flow Picking.

The great thing about the ETF approach is that they – for a small fee – have already picked (some of) the most suitable companies for you (for an approach of living off the dividends). The (IMO) sad thing is that you’ll also pile money into businesses that IMO are just … well, turds. :poop:

Stock Cash Flow Picking

  1. Pick your ETFs depending on your level of risk you’re willing to take with FX.
  2. Use the companies in those ETFs (or just that one ETF) as your universe.
  3. Pick the companies you like. Allocate according to mechanical rules or your personal preferences.
    fin
  4. optional: once you feel comfortable, add other companies not in the holdings of your ETF(s) to your universe.

E.g. let’s say you’ve settled on CHDVD as your ETF (aka “no” FX risk, just the ETF’s universe).
Your universe is now (as of August 1 2025):

  • ZURN
  • NOVN
  • ROG
  • NESN
  • SREN
  • SLHN
  • HOLN
  • PGHN
  • SCMN
  • SGSN
  • KNIN
  • CHF (cash)
  • GALE
  • BARN
  • BUCN
  • LAND
  • EFGN
  • CLN
  • DKSH
  • BCHN
  • SRAIL
  • F-GSI (cash collateral … don’t really understand this. We anyhow won’t invest in this)
  • GBP (cash)
  • SMU5 (futures)

Analyze these companies with your favorite tool:wrench: and pick the ones you like based on your criteria.

I would look for a history of consistent earnings and dividend growth and from the universe above pick:

  • ZURN: has grown or at least kept steady their dividend since the Great Financial Crisis (GFC), nice almost 5% yield, earnings keep growing since the GFC. Excellent credit rating (S&P: AA), just 25% long term debt to capital.
    FASTgraph:
  • NOVN: has consistently grown their dividend for the past 20 years, 3.7% yield. Great credit rating (S&P: AA-). About 33% long term debt to capital, which is fine.
    FASTgraph:
  • ROG: 3.8% yield. AA credit rating. Otherwise see my NOVN comment.
    FASTgraph:
  • NESN: No debt? 4.28% yield. AA- rating. Much like the above.
    FASTgraphs:
  • SREN: This one’s a little more iffy. Their dividend history is a little volatile, but I still like their credit rating and their low level of debt. Nice 4% yield.
    Maybe a smaller sized position.
    FASTgraph:
  • SLHN: Yup, looks fine. A bit overvalued right now. For your purposes: certainly part of the “ETF”, maybe buy into it underweight and add positions as their valuation comes down again.
    FASTgraph:
  • HOLN: pass for now. Somewhat inconsistent dividend history, definitely overvalued currently.
    Add to the “ETF” when valuations are more sane and if the dividend keeps growing.
    FASTgraph:
  • PGHN: probably a pass for now. Overvalued. Payout ratio seems really high (does not look better when looking at Operating Cash Flow or Free Cash Flow).
    There’s more attractive brides/grooms out there IMO …
    FASTgraph:
  • SCMN: this is essentially a bond. If you want a bond, add it to the portfolio, if not, avoid it.
    Goofy would not put this into his “ETF” as the dividend payouts won’t grow (they’re expected to grow in the next couple of years, but look at the last 20 years: mostly Flatliners™).
    FASTgraph:
  • SGSN: Nah, worse than above.
    FASTgraph:
  • KNIN: Cyclical in earnings as well as in dividends. Maybe consider it if you don’t mind income fluctuations. Currently (and, mostly, over the past 20 years) overvalued anyhow, despite its (IMO) anemic growth.
    Actually, having said this, I’d stay away from it unless it was severely undervalued.
    FASTgraph:
  • GALE: Currently overvalued, otherwise meh-dividend growth history, relatively low yield, relatively high payout ratio. Pass.
    FASTgraph:
  • BARN: Earnings growth is too low, so is dividend growth. Pass.
    FASTgraph:
  • BUCN: Cyclical, not enough growth for me, but if you want a bond like investment that is cyclical … ok, ok, I’ll stop here. Pass.
    FASTgraph:
  • LAND: No. PoS.
    FASTgraph:
  • EFGN: They’re probably fairly valued right now, but nothing that attracts me really.
    FASTgraph:
  • CLN: No. Do you want a volatile non-growing business / bond with a low yield? This is for you!
    (Pass)
    FASTgraph:
  • DKSH: Actually, I’ve seen worse. Steady earnings and dividend growth, slightly overvalued.
    Goofy would add this company to his portfolio if it became a little cheaper.
    FASTgraph:
  • BCHN: Posterchild of the Swiss (export) industry. Kind of like them for their story (specialty vacuum pumps IIRC), but their earnings and dividend track record is kind of shite.
    They’re also severly overvalued. Pass.
    FASTgraph:
  • SRAIL: What the actual … nope.   The CEO is a “posterchild” Swiss billionaire CEO, but IMO he can keep his company to himself. Thank you very much.
    FASTgraph:

The selection above is admittedly a little on the low end in terms of diversification. This gets much better if you expand on your FX risk willingness as your universe of companies to pick from will just explode to the point where there’s almost too many companies to pick from.

Good luck, be well and invest well!


∑   For comparison, we – as a family – have fired on about CHF 3M (USD 4M) with some residual income piling in and I feel no anxiety at all. Yearly expenses clock in at about CHF 180k, another CHF 2M are coming in in pillars 2 and 3a with the first 3a 100k withdrawal this year.

$   This can be a partial (and possibly growing) replacement of your ETFs depending on how comfortable you feel with picking stocks.
Maybe to soften the tone since active investing has such a bad reputation: you’re picking the companies you want steady and ideally payed out cash flows from versus picking the stocks that will the highest total return over your timeline.
I personally strongly believe the former is easy while the latter is really hard.
As you mention yourself (and apparently suggested by @xerox5003: it’s the opposite when you’ve FIRED – it’s incredibly easy to live off those steady cash flows coming in via interest payments and mostly steady and growing dividends, while i’s hard(er) to do this from cash flows with realized capital gains.

★   Well, you won’t ever have no FX risk – unless you invest in your town’s local bakery (well, even that bakery is probably exposed to FX risks via commodity exposure via grains/flour). Plus most liquid and listed Swiss companies are probably exposed to FX risks. Some very significantly. Anyway …

:wrench:   Crystal ball, Bloomberg, tarot, Wall Street Journal, tea-leaf reading, FASTgraphs, hepatoscopie (please consult with @Mirager on this), analyst ratings, company 10-K reports, you name it.

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I agree. With all these interdependencies I would recommend setting up your own projection spreadsheet (or other means) to simulate the effect of changes over the timespan you want. Even if it is a lot of work to include the calculation of taxes, AHV contributions, inflation, etc.
IMO it’s worthwhile.

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How come your graph does not match 2m in 6 years (2031)?

Interesting read for the context:

Beyond the Status Quo: A Critical Assessment of Lifecycle Investment Advice

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4590406

Suggesting that a an all-equity strategy (specifically 50% domestic (US) + 50% international stocks) consistently delivered higher retirement wealth, greater consumption allowance, lower failure risk, and larger bequests compared to traditional glidepaths and 60/40 portfolio.

See Challenging tenets of lifecycle investing (but it’s also been discussed in other threads). Personally I’m a bit dubious of the chunking method used for the model, would like to see a discussion wether it replicates if removing US from the data.

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Having a plan that is superior on paper might be suboptimal if you‘re having a hard time sticking with it. I wouldn‘t want to risk seeing 3M dropping to 1.5-2.0M within a couple of months.

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But that is exactly what will happen, at least once or twice in your life if you invest in the stock market. Better get used to it. Volatility is the price of performance. Most people behave wrong in those situations, sell when one should buy.

It is hard to stick to a plan, but it is essential. Exactly in those moments you need a plan and you need to stick to it. The pain it causes is almost unbearable.

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