Experience with Polymarket? supposedly the "worlds largest prediction market"

Investing / Others
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I did a search here and did not find any thread on Polymarket.com

Anybody with experience on that investing (or: gambling?) tool and willing to share it?

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Looks like gambling yes. Have no experiences, but if I were a gambler, that bet wouldnt sound that bad, would it? Like is there really a 1/25 chance that something happens to Trump until then (only scenario I see that he wouldnt get inaugurated)?! Wild.

So ‘safe’ 4% won within 2 months, corresponds to a yearly gain of 24%. :laughing:

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But imagine how much more you could make by betting on ‘No’ and investing in a sniper rifle! :joy:

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Is that so unlikely? They nearly downed him before. Those odds say in one of 25 worlds someone succeeds.

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Why gambling? Or, why more gambling-like than the regular stock market?

E.g. you can take a position on Polymarket on whether or not Taylor Swift will be pregnant in 2024. Using demographic statistics you can surely make a calculated estimate of whether that will still happen.

I read many years ago that sites such as Polymarket are extremely good at predicting events because they attract people who have an edge and have high conviction. The stock market is full with people with opinions but who are not willing to back it up with their $$$ after all.

There are also some other interesting opportunities on the site - e.g practically there’s a way to trade derivatives on Bitcoin for example by ‘betting’ on its price in the future.

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That’s why people were turning to the betting markets instead of pollsters to understand who was leading between Trump/Harris: they were seen as more reliable.

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Here you have the house/Polymarket who wins on average (like the green number in roulette). I don’t think you will be consistently smarter than the majority hence in the long term the odds are against you.

I also don’t think I’m smarter than majority in the stock market hence I don’t pick individual stocks. But I believe in longterm growth of the market overall (like the green number is in my favor), hence I see a rational reason to invest in it.

If you can bet on that, I would argue it is already ‘priced in’, unless you’re again smarter than the majority.

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Well it’s all events combined. The chances of him having a heart attack given his age and health behavior are probably equally likely.

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Congratulations, you’re now a list.

But to stay on-topic, yes I did some bets for fun on polymarket. Works perfectly fine and I really like the variety of markets that they offer.

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Fair point. Makes you wonder to what extent a market like Polymarket is driven by what would be considered “insider knowledge” on regular financial markets.

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I think that’s explicitly the goal, “insider trading” is encouraged as it helps getting the right prediction.

edit: yesterday’s Money Stuff was about this: Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

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Holy smokes
 quick route to FIRE?

I just wonder how much this guy (?) put on the line and where he earned that amount in the first place:

" The divergence continued into mid October 2024, showing Trump with 60% odds on October 18. The Wall Street Journal reported the market moves might be a mirage created by four bettors with about $30 million in Trump wagers, though the bets were not necessarily nefarious. The four bettors behaved in similar fashion, leading at least one blockchain analyst to conclude there was “strong reason to believe they are the same entity.” Polymarket initiated an investigation of potential market manipulation for an influence campaign in favor of the Donald Trump 2024 presidential campaign.[18] The company confirmed on October 24 that the four accounts were controlled by one French trader with “extensive trading experience and a financial services background,” finding no evidence of efforts at market manipulation.[19] The trader ultimately won $48 million upon Trump’s victory.[20]"

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Describing himself as a wealthy Frenchman who had previously worked as a trader for several banks,

from https://www.wsj.com/finance/how-the-trump-whale-correctly-called-the-election-cb7eef1d

edit: he spent some more money than just on the bet:

In an email, he told the Journal that he had commissioned his own surveys to measure the neighbor effect, using a major pollster whom he declined to name. The results, he wrote, “were mind blowing to the favor of Trump!”

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Thanks for that @nabalzbhf

Wow, that’s an extreme form of information arbitrage and disqualifies the competence of a lot of polling firms

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You play the game differently when you have skin in the game :slight_smile:

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In the spirit of helping people achieve FIRE: How the Trump Polymarket Whale Correctly Called the Election, and Made Nearly $50 Million - WSJ

Archive.is to the rescue


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I kid here, but I think the risk is under-appreciated. It isn’t just that Trump can be taken out by assassination but also:

  • Trump dies or has an accident
  • Biden resigns and Harris is inaugurated as the next president

Maybe Biden/Harris should put all their money and then resign and have Harris be inaugurated. That would provide plenty of money for the next campaign


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or simply dies

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Interesting platform, where users create the market.
Cool feature to see the orderbook, but I feel that liquidity is rather low, even though volume can be significant. For most bets I looked at, a few $100 move the market by a few %. The french trader was also stuck with his bets, I wonder how he was even able to buy all of his positions.

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Yeah, the guy made 4 accounts in order to not draw too much attention.

I wonder whether some of his bets may have been with himself in order to elevate the perceived volume and pull more people in for him to bet with.