Effect of 2020 US presidential election on markets

I think this explains it:
(tldr: it was an simple error and the vote did not actually jump like this)

https://www.reddit.com/r/Conservative/comments/jo38f6/in_reference_to_those_133889_votes_that_came_in/

The real graph looks like this:

You don’t. The ballots have to be mailed/stamped at a certain time.
It is expected that 1-2% of these votes will not be counted because the postal service is too slow.
But these are the legal circumstances. Maybe they suck and should be changed but for this election you obviously should count according to the rules.

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There is a lot of misinformation circling around and everyone should be suspicious about strong claims.

Two examples of clearly, purposeful deception:

Or additionally this:

Or this:
(Hint: The reason it takes so long is differing state laws and procedure, often determined by republicans. For example, Florida took a really long time in 2000, then they changed procedures and are now one of the fastest states to count. Crowder knows this 100% and is trying to spread misinformation.)

Or this:
(Rubin claimed this repeatedly. It has been utterly debunked. He hasn’t removed it for almost a day. Clearly trying to decieve.)

These are highly influential figures in conservative/right media. The only one that has been factual (as far as I can tell) is Ben Shapiro.

I predict that conspiracy theories soon will be rampant, think “911 was an inside job” on steroids.

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Currently in the US.

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This is going to be very close. :open_mouth:

I find this interesting. Why do the whites prefer Trump and blacks overwhelmingly vote Biden? (these stats are just for one state, but in many states it’s the same picture)

Which state?

Black or African American make up less than 15% of the total population and/or electorate.

Having just watched the news, the market reaction is now completely understandable. Whatever uncertainty there is about who gets elected president is almost irrelevant because the seat distribution for the senate and congress is more or less known.

If Trump wins, the market knows his policies already. If Biden wins, he cannot push anything radical through for the next two years. There’s a status quo and Mr. Market likes that. The only real uncertainty is the coronavirus and the market seems to be cautiously optimistic about that.

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Because Trump has clearly been uninterested (and often the contrary, with many winks to white supremacists) in fixing the systemic racism targeting african americans?

I thought BLM movement was pretty well covered in european media.

I thought BLM was just a couple of misguided people, rioting, looting, destroying property, expecting random white people to kneel. Didn’t know they had such a wide support by the black racial group. I know of a couple of black people who openly spoke against BLM: Terry Crews, Thomas Sowell, Lil Wayne.

Tell me how does systemic racist manifest itself in USA? How did Obama get to become president and what did he do about during 8 years? Could it be that blacks are trapped in poverty by the same democratic policies that are meant to help them?

That would be Georgia. Sure, in other states there is around 10% black people, but it’s always 90% Biden, which is a huge edge over Trump. No other demographic division has such a distinct difference.

So here it is, the most pathetic and miserable speech to date by the (still) most powerful man in the world:

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Wonder what kind of illegal votes he means exactly. Bold statement!

Btw one comment got me:

The only way Trump can reach 270 now is by losing 50lbs.

I do agree however with his statement that the democratic party has become the party of big tech. And just think about how Google, Facebook, Microsoft, Twitter & Amazon can influence what you see on the internet. Some people have already called for them to take a more active role in what should and should not be allowed to be displayed to the audience.

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Never thought that Biden could win PA after being behind 700k votes lol.

Yes, this is sickening. And completely baseless.
And Lindsey Graham and Ted Cruz (some of the most influential Republicans) are backing him on this.

One of the proposed “evidence” for fraud is that military ballots were found in a trash back in late September. A total of 9 ballots, 7 of which voted for Trump. The whole thing actually rather increases my confidence in the election, if that’s the worst that came up (until now).

Some Analysts were pretty confident “early” after the election, when Trump still had a huge lead:

Basically the very large number of absentee ballots and them leaning heavily democrat lead to a huge Blue Shift.

Fun possibility: Georgia is looking very narrow. It could be that the military vote will decide it in the end, which is usually counted last/late and thought to lean towards Trump. So you might end up having a mini Red Shift at the very end of the count.

I don’t really know what causes black voters to lean so heavily towards the democratic party. I think it could have more to do with historical affiliation than with actual policies.

But BLM has actually more support than opposition in the US:

Do you have a source? I think it tends to be more balanced than we’d expect (army recruits are pretty diverse, tho often coming from poorer background)

I can’t find it right now. But I remember reading that Trump got somewhere around 54% of the military vote (not sure if they were talking about 2016 or this election thusfar).
Could be wrong, can’t reall back it up after some searching.

Trumps lead is down to less than 1000 votes in Georgia

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I’m pretty sure this is also election-related

and this also

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Gosh, I really wonder why? :thinking: