The Effect of 2020 US presidential election on my portfolio is advancing a full 1 year to planned FIRE goal in 1 day. God bless america.
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and NIO 
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My best guess, where the election stands is this:
Reasons:
- Wisconsin was called by NYT and AP for Biden
- Michigan is likely to go to Biden but Trump has made some small gains recently
- Nevada is pretty close but there is an expected blue-shift at the end, based on ballot party affiliation.
- Arizona should worry democrats the most. The Outstanding ballots lean republican, and there’s a lot of them. However, many ballots are also from Maricopa, where Biden has a slight lead until now.
- Pennsylvania nobody seems to have a good idea. Biden is catching up fast and there are 20% of votes outstanding but Trump still has an 8p lead. I’d put my money on Trump there.
- Trump is most likely going to get Georgia.
EDIT:
The conclusion then becomes something like this
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Damn, didn’t think I will miss having the Trumpster as president.
By the way, if you think the new president is a lesser creep, don’t forget he seems to have a fetish sniffing younger women’s hair. 
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And BIIB 
He’s a “close-talker”… It might be an american phenomenon.
It is really disturbing whenever I encounter them. 
But yeah, if they wanted to be consistent Democrats should probably regard it as “problematic”. But let’s not feed into such political correctness, right… 
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At least he doesn’t have 4000 lawsuits against him for sexual harassment.
Lesser evil? 
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I guess so 
Man, the USA really has a great pool of presidential candidates.
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My bet is that some of the people who’ve voted for Trump did so because they’d rather have someone who does not do much at the Presidency than someone who actually tries to manage the situation. I’d not be surprised if, during the primaries, people choose the candidate they feel is the less threatening yet still potentially able to win the election rather than the most efficient.
After all, that’s what the parliament does for the Federal Council around here…
Latest assessment from Nate Silver:
North Carolina - Likely Trump
Georgia - Toss up
Pennsylvania - Lean Biden
Arizona - Likely Biden
Nevada - Likely Biden
Michigan - Apparent Winner Biden
Wisconsin - Apparent Winner Biden
Biden needs to win the likely Biden states to win the election.
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Trump’s newest tweets:
(Note that it was clearly not written by Trump himself but by his team/lawyers.)
We have claimed, for Electoral Vote purposes, the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania (which won’t allow legal observers) the State of Georgia, and the State of North Carolina, each one of which has a BIG Trump lead. Additionally, we hereby claim the State of Michigan if, in fact,…
…there was a large number of secretly dumped ballots as has been widely reported!
This is probably just crazy talk with no real political weight but it plays into the unrest playbook.
More importantly it shows once again what incredible assholes he and the people around him are.
Tax plans come and go, but maniacal authoritarians with disregard of democracy are a once-in-a-lifetime existential risk to a country.
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I think this is a good partial explanation for what happened (in 2016 and in 2020):
For example:
Trump won Florida 51% to 47%.
At the same time 61% voted for a $15 minimum wage in Florida.
Either there is a huge cognitive dissonance or they don’t vote for Trump because of his economic policies.
Trump wins if he gets:
- Georgia 62’000+ of 146’000 (43%).
- Pennsylvania 310’000+ of 783’000 (40%)
- North Carolina 136’000+ of 348’000 (39%)
- Nevada 207’000+ of 397’000 (52%)
Sounds totally possible!
That’s why the bookies give him 15%, not 1% 
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Some things changed but all-in-all things are looking really good for Biden.
Georgia:
Trump lead narrowed to 0.5% with 5% left to vote.
I’d say it’s leaning Biden but will most likely have to be recounted.
Pennsylvania:
Trump lead narrowed to 2.6% with 11% left to vote.
Seems likely that Biden will win it.
Arizona:
Not much has changed. Still a lot of uncertainty about the possible distribution of remaining votes. Outstanding vote possibly leaning Republican but Biden’s lead is still significant (2.8%).
Nevada:
Also not a lot of things changed. Bidel still has a small 0.6% lead, and the remaining votes might lean Biden.
(Afaik, this chart looked the same yesterday.)
In Summary:
Biden winning 270-268 is no longer the most likely outcome. He can likely win more.
If Nevada stays with Biden, it still comes down to Trump having to win Pennsylvania, Arizona and Georgia.
This seems pretty unlikely and I’d give Trump only 6-8% of winning right now.
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Do you have this chart for Nevada?
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Btw the faithless elector stuff is crazy. In 2016 4 electors voted for someone else than Clinton, e.g. Sanders got a vote. I wonder if this was just “trolling coz we lost anyway lol”, or could we see a repeat this year as well.
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Yes, and two didn’t vote for Trump.
I’m hoping for a clearer Biden win. In that case Trump trying to go to the Supreme Court or faithless electors aren’t really an issue.
Is there such a large dissonance? Trump’s policies tend to larger government, more spending (with a bias for more defense), while the Dem’s typically love larger, more spending (with a bias for more social spending). More deficits on both sides!