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Some Votes from Wayne County (Detroit) came in, Biden is now only 46k votes behind. It seems that it is more likely that Michigan will go to Biden.
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Seems like Trump’s chance of winning is growing slim(mer).
[However, I don’t know how to account for court shenanigans, which have become more likely as the race grew tighter.]
Michigan now has Biden and Trump almost tied and remaining votes very likely to be predominantly democrat.
Biden increased his (still small) lead in Wisconsin, and outstanding votes also expected to lean democrat.
Biden doesn’t even need Georgia, Pennsylvania or North Carolina in that case.
Trumps biggest chance is flipping back Nevada, where Biden’s lead shrunk considerably. If there is no Blue Shift in Nevada, the race might get tight again.
Just watching the Foxnews feed live and it feels that 3/4 of the advertisement are about promoting any kind of drugs, fixing some medical issues (or even steroid). And at the end you get the list of side effects… this is funny…
Something that looked very unlikely a couple of hours ago might actually have a (small?) chance of happening after all:
If the blue shift continues its trend the polling errors might turn out not having been that bad overall (still really bad in Florida).
Biden now leads in Maine, Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada and Arizona. This would put him at 270 votes.
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Curious - how can this Nebraska 4-1 split happen?
Does Neb have some sort of special state/split?
Edit: Ah found some info. Maine is similar.
.
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Looks like 270 for Biden if he keeps Michigan, Nevada and Wisconsin.
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Which creates the quite real possibility of one faithless elector wreaking havoc on the whole political system.
Nevada looks curiously like it might turn out to be the closest race out of the three.
And Arizona, but I guess they are confident there.
Nevada is looking increasingly close:
On the other hand, Pennsylvania is looking increasingly good for Biden:
Nevada still has some late Mail-in ballots. They are more likely than not to lean blue.
Pennsylvania has still lots of mail-in votes, could go either way.
Are the ballots colored and they sorted them by red and blue on purpose and started with counting the red ones as a joke?
No, mail-in ballots are counted later (or take longer to count). They are then only released as batches once all of them are counted.
Mail-in ballots lean democrat historically, and additionally it’s speculated that Democrats are more scared by the pandemic and are therefore more likely to not vote in-person.
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But what explains the recent red-shift?
Looking at his twitter feed, I’m quite concerned with Trump spreading massive misinformation right now.
I was always very sceptical with Twitter quasi-censoring Trump but here I think it might turn out to be a good thing.
This captures some of the spirit of how Trump fans are reacting right now:
This behaviour is so bad, even Ben Shapiro agrees:
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What really surprises me is that the most of the media did not learn or adapt from the 2016 election with their forecasting. It seems that it is not appropriate to vote for Trump and tell this in public.
Only Foxnews prognosed a close 50/50 race and everybody thought they are super bias (me too) and therefor wrong. Instead of we all were super bias (me too) and therefor wrong.
538 predicted a landslide in only 29% of cases, so I don’t really get why people are surprised.
People are just really bad with interpreting probabilities.
Where do you get those?
Here:
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