Effect of 2020 US presidential election on markets

Biden clearly doesn’t need Michigan AND Pennsylvania. (It’s simple counting of Electoral Votes.)

If Biden gets Michigan, Nevada and Georgia he wins.

You just believe it’s unlikely he will get them.

EDIT:
Your chart is also not up to date in Wisconsin, right?
(Maybe it’s also just a large batch of absentee ballots that turned the state and Trump will still win. It’s only a 0.6% lead after all.)

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Damn Wisconsin just turned blue.

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A majority of missing votes are “blue”, the question is just by how much. All these states will probably get tighter and can still change color.

If Wisconsin and Nevada stay blue and Georgia turns blue, Biden doesn’t need Michigan nor Pennsylvania. Or am I missing something:

The US voting system is not that bad… it always provides a strong opposition, which is important.

Is it really important?

Oh yes because no parties owns 100% the truth - exception probably Workers’ Party of North Korea (WPK).

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No matter who wins, Technology is always a safe bet:

That doesn’t mean, that a strong opposition is really needed.

Besides, I think democracy should represent the people as close as possible. I don’t see how this is possible with 3 or less parties.

And the odds just converged to a 50:50. That late in the count it still looks like a coin toss! Amazing.

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If you look at this twitter page:

https://twitter.com/DecisionDeskHQ

You can see that there is actually quite some uncertainty about what percentage of the vote has been counted.

For example in Michigan it’s 80-93%. If it’s in fact 80% Biden might have a really good chance, if it’s 93% he probably doesn’t. [EDIT: It seems the data in this tweet was incorrect. Trump still has a larger lead.]

Maybe this is because of how the votes are reported but possible also because nobody really knows how many total votes there are?

Can we all just appreciate how close this race is going to be. Damn :smiley:

Look at this:

Probably not as close as 2000

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Biden in the lead. He takes Wisconsin and probably Michigan. Then it’s game over.

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The first US democratic election was held in 1789 with George Washington as its first president. So they are doing this a pretty long time and successfully without dropping into a dictatorship or similar. They have checks and balances in place. Electoral college is one way to ensure that the smaller states can put their voice into the vote. We in Switzerland have the *Ständerat" which has a similar effect.

I can only see funnily shaped penises in these graphs and that’s about how I feel about this elections. The choice is between civil unrest / economic war with Trump vs. very likely actual military war with Biden. Both not really affecting me execept for some stock market swings.

Mr Freud would like to have a word with you… :wink:

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I don’t think Michigan is so sure.
The link I posted before had faulty numbers.
Apparently it’s still something like this:

Here is what Michigan looks like at NY Times:

Still 20% of votes to go and Biden is getting closer and closer. Doesn’t look good for Trump.

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@Bojack I see.
Yes, it does look rather good.
(But the info I got before made it look like Biden was quite probably going to win.)

Are you suscribed to the NYT or how do you access the graphs? :slight_smile: