Effect of 2020 US presidential election on markets

I don’t find it appalling at all, don’t quite get where you’re coming from. (But it also only informs my preferences to some degree.)
Trump’s rhetoric stoked the second scenario of mass civil unrest on the right from being really really unlikely to quite a real possibility. Biden at most failed to more clearly condemn violent protests.

I want Trump out because he does stuff like that, and I expect him to continue doing it.

Millions will be unhappy either way.

Yes, exactly this. Trump has made this fact worse. And a disregard for democracy (aka. listening to unhappy voters) won’t make it better.

Biden won’t fix this problem but Trump will make it worse.

Perhaps I was watching a non-live “live” stream then. :sweat_smile:

Sad that no one is discussing how elections in USA works. I think the biggest thing I have learnt is that the US isn’t really a democracy and that thing about the electors (how are they called? ) is just a thing that comes after they stopped slavery to show some sort of fake democracy.

From my point of view, the only thing that matters for us is stability and one of the candidate has shown that don’t care about it as long as he can play golf or something.

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Any country with a plurality voting system has a flawed democracy. It leads to a two-party system where you vote for lesser evil, not your true favourite. The electors in the US is just a cherry on top.

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This also seems a relevant analysis, but I’ve no idea how to interpret it:
(My current uncertain take: If Biden were to lose, the Electoral College and Popular Vote will be even further apart than in 2016.)

Simply : No.

Too many people vote for the thing they have most at heart and disregard everything else.
You are confusing how the country is lead with how people vote. I don’t care if at the end is always the same 1-2 parties that run the country. The problem is when someone vote for a party because the big thing they have at heart is important for that party even if everything else is bad. I think I said it before. If you are anti abortion, you vote anti abortionist, it doesn’t matter if they are against your race or killing babies or whatever.
Here in Switzerland we have the Green Liberals, which in an hypotetical US system they wouldn’t exists and many liberals with an eye for ecology would have had to pick either left (green?) or right (liberals?)

No doubt, the US has fundamental issues and this is one of them.

I also don’t believe that Biden will fix any of it.

Neither will Trump, but he WILL continue to do shitty stuff that divides the people even further into the two camps and undermines the peoples trust in elections, science and government.
The last two things become a real life problem when you… like… are in a pandemic.

To be honest, I also believe that much of the damage has been done. And Trump will have continuing negative effects on how the US develops for quite some time, no matter what the election outcome will be.

I’m not a strong ideologue against Trump policy-wise.
Some things that I can come up with right now:

  • He was correct in banning travel in Spring 2020
  • His prison reform looks promising
  • I’ve no idea about his tax reform, which was arguably one of his greatest accomplishments (although economists don’t seem to be very positive).
  • I believe that “building the wall” should never have been given the weight it was given in political discourse. It was a stupid idea but also mostly irrelevant.

I don’t understand what you are trying to say. You’re saying no to what exactly? Plurality leads to a two-party system and it’s bad. There are many dimensions (certainly more than two) to accurately quantify ones political views. Having to choose from two options is a tragedy. Also, a system in which 51% get to set all the rules and the 49% have to suck it up, is also wrong. But I don’t see how we can fix that in a simple way to understand and implement.

This election is a real nail-biter. Odds have been dancing all night. Right now Biden seems to be catching up!

These trend lines tell a lot.

Seems like Georgia may fall to Biden, but NC will go to Trump, as Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

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Uhm. apparently we agree that a two party system is bad.

I don’t understand this sentence then…

Yes, Georgia is trending towards Biden (NYT gave it a 65% chance). Likely due to Atlanta being counted last.

Nevada also likely to go to Biden (at least that’s what everyone seems to expect).

If that’s true it might all come down to Michigan, again.

Plurality is a voting system where you can only vote for one candidate. There are others, like ranking the candidates, or approval, where you can vote for more than one candidate, that you approve of. There is also a nobel-winning auction system, which is e.g. used for awarding mobile network frequencies. (not really related, but I find it fascinating)

Nevada may still fall to Trump:

In Michigan Trump’s lead is slowly evaporating. In Arizona Trump is strongly catching up:

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I believe in Arizona even the Associated Press (AP) called it for Biden. They usually only call states if they’re pretty sure.

Where do you get those graphs from? :slight_smile:

From 538:

Wisconsin

Shift in results

Most municipalities count absentee and Election Day votes together, but others — including Milwaukee — count them separately and may release absentee votes all at once toward the end of the night, which could nudge races toward Democrats.

Pennsylvania

Shift in results

Election-night results are expected to be disproportionately made up of Election Day votes, which will probably skew Republican. Then, as absentee ballots are counted in the ensuing days, the state will probably experience a blue shift.

Nevada

Shift in results

In other states, late-arriving mail ballots have historically trended Democratic, so don’t rule out a blue shift in the week after Election Day.

Georgia

Shift in results

Hard to say. Each county treats absentee votes differently, and with (Democratic-leaning) absentee votes being reported at different times throughout the state, it’s possible we’ll see some miniature red and blue shifts on the county level, which may cancel each other out statewide.

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We will probably not know the result before Friday.

Additionaly from their live feed:

Here’s a look at what we know about the outstanding vote in each battleground state:

  • Arizona: While some outlets, such as the Associated Press, have projected Arizona for Biden, ABC News has not. Before the election, officials did warn that any super-close races might not be resolved until the last votes are counted on Thursday or Friday. However, the race isn’t that close right now (Biden 52 percent, Trump 47 percent), so we might see a projection sooner.

  • Wisconsin: 81 percent of the expected vote is already reporting here, and the rest should trickle in over the next few hours. Earlier tonight, Milwaukee County (expected to be among the last places to finish counting) said to expect semi-final results around 6 a.m. Eastern.

  • Georgia: The big holdup here is Fulton County, which as of 2 a.m. was home to most of the outstanding ballots. The count there was delayed by a burst pipe (no ballots were damaged), and election officials told the Atlanta Journal-Constitution their goal was to go into Wednesday with just 20,000 ballots left to count. However, the secretary of state estimated those results would not be released until the afternoon.

  • Michigan: There are still hundreds of thousands of absentee ballots to be counted here, and it’s unclear if counting will continue throughout the night. Election officials did say earlier on Tuesday that they expected counting to wrap up by Wednesday night.

  • Pennsylvania: Major counties such as Philadelphia and Allegheny have reported their last ballots of the night (although Philadelphia will continue to count around the clock). Going into the election, many county and state election officials predicted that results wouldn’t approach completion until Friday.

  • North Carolina: 95 percent of the expected vote has already been counted here, so it seems quite possible that all we’re waiting on are late-arriving mail-in ballots, which have until Nov. 12 to arrive. That means we could be waiting over a week for a call here.

  • Maine: Honestly, this is anyone’s guess. Election officials are taking much longer here than they originally expected.

Looks like we might have to wait quite a while…

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You do love youtube isn’t it? (you might be interested in my side project eheh),
I’m at work and can’t really watch videos. (I can barely answer text)

Also I’ve read somewhere that they still have to count mail-in votes.

Michigan and Pennsylvania will decide the election. Biden needs both, Trump one of them.

No, this is simply wrong. Biden doesn’t need Pennsylvania.

Here’s just one example:
(You can toggle the states, to get different results.)

This is just going to be absurdly close:

Don’t see Biden winning those.