Bought that book of Alan Lichtman. It is really interesting, how he had 13 keys and with them was always right with that predictions. He is on TV now for many years and predicts the outcome of the elections (and was always right). Let’s see if this win streak ends this week. Still the book is really interesting and I recommend it.
Polling has been wrong in Poland a few times already. Don’t know what’s the deal. Anyway, I keep my fingers crossed for Trump.
Trump is winning pretty sure at this point.
My bookie saying 70-30, so nothing certain yet.
How so?
Afaik, if Arizona was properly called by Fox then Biden has quite a good chance (winning by a very narrow EV margin 270-268).
I’d say Trumps chance has gone up to something like 40-50%.
But it will possibly take days of recounts and objections until we know for sure.
Policy aside, are you not worried by him undermining the most influential democracy in the world?
For me, he was basically dead as soon as he started to claim he couldn’t lose except if there was fraud. And always eyeing with the idea of not conceding.
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He didn’t go as far as declare himself the winner in the press conference, but did something similarly bad:
“This is a major fraud on our election.”
"Frankly we did win this election.”
“As far as I’m concerned we already won.”
“We will go to the courts and make them stop the voting.” [With which he actually means counting the votes, right? Ridiculous…]
Look at the Swing States. It looks like Trump will get to 290.
I do not agree with his rhetoric, he is known to play dirty or say things that are not true. But if I’m given the choice to see more of his real policies vs what Biden proposes, I prefer Trump.
You said it yourself that if Trump wins, there might be riots on the streets. And in Poland they also say this on the main news channel. Given this, is it not justified to say that “they” are trying to steal this election, threatening that if it does not go their way, they will walk out to the streets?
North Carolina (15) 94% counted and 48.7% Biden, 50.1% Trump.
Georgia (16) 93% counted and 48.1% Biden, 50.7% Trump.
Wisconsin (10) 91% counted 47.2% Biden, 51.3% Trump.
Michigan (16) 71% counted 45.0% Biden, 53.4% Trump.
Pennsylvania (20) 64% counted 42.7% Biden, 56.1% Trump.
Cleary 290 for Trump.
You are clearly missing some key info, because the bookies are still at 65:35. Probably the missing votes are the ones from big cities, where Biden has the advantage. Could be that he takes Georgia. Maybe even NC?
Trump has policies?
Current prediction of the 538 model with the called states:
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Yes, I expected violent protests if Trump wins. Which would be bad.
But I expected roughly the same if Biden wins + the fear that it might incite a growing radical right militia. Which would be even worse.
Do you believe that the second scenario is highly unlikely?
Yes, I also saw that but am sceptical about how accurate this is, now that the polls turned out to be heavily biased towards Biden.
Any ideas?
As far as I understand it’s exactly this.
More democratic leaning counties are counted later, plus there is the expectation that late votes in some of these states slant democratic (because of early votes).
It’s not just rhetoric, it’s real life strategies unfolding right now.
This makes me shiver:
I don’t know, either way I find it appalling to base your preferences on how “people may react”. Millions will be unhappy either way.
NY Times says they counted 96% of votes in Florida, and Trump has a 3% lead, which is statistically impossible to lose.
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This helps at interpreting the results. It also says what kind of shifts to expect.