Do you guys have any? Which ones? Why?
I am thinking of changing my ISP to have a little bit of gold (<5%) or a combination of precious materials as an additional diversification.
Thanks!
G
Ops: just saw that there is already a thread on this topic here: What would you about Gold as an alternative to Bonds? the mods could close this one. Sorry.
Out of curiosity, I bring this topic back again.
Anybody has a opinion how to look for a good gold mine share or a gold mine ETF?
What would be the criterias?
I do not, but if I would, I would probably buy ZGLD.
I’d say gold mines must be seen from a different perspective.
I also use ZGLD for gold: 100% physically represented gold in a Swiss vault, and you can even demand to get that gold delivered instead of selling ETF shares (theoretically, it is of course in standard 12.5kg bars). That is nearly as good as buying the gold yourself and much cheaper.
Also: I just sold my last shares in it this Monday.
I only know Newmont. Certainly Google will deliver more results, but there aren’t that many gold mining companies that are listed afaik.
IMHO mines are very tricky, they have very different profitability levels. When the gold (or another commodity) price climbs, more and more mines can produce (again), but at some point (with some lag) there is overproduction and the prices go down. The “expensive” mines become less profitable and unprofitable. There is a similar problem with shale oil.
This picture is a bit sketchy and based on some tables and charts I’ve seen. I’d not touch mines without extensive research.
What speaks against going with GDX? I found a list of similar ETFs on etfdb.com: Gold Miners ETF List.
There are not that many alternatives it seems. Ignoring the leveraged stuff there are RING, SGDM, GOAU. They both have much lower volumes and and hold only a bit more than half as many different titles (GDX holds 54). RING has a clearly lower expense ratio. All are very heavy in Canada and large cap. Returns are in the same range, but RING slightly outperforms the other two over the last few years. This difference is more than the difference in expense ratio. But that could well be from the specific choice of concentration in their index and therefore reverse once it comes down again.
There are some small-medium cap ETFs too: GDXJ, SGDJ, GOEX Volumes are even lower. GDXJ and SGDJ do have more individual titles. All are less heavy on Canada. Expense ratios are about the same as GDX. Return of SGDJ is consistently much lower than all the others.
That said, I don’t have in-depth knowledge about this market sector. It is highly volatile, acting like leverage on gold, but still somewhat correlated to the stock market. Also it doesn’t seem to go anywhere in particular. Buy and hold is probably not an ideal strategy here. I suspect that this idea reaches us because the sector performed very well at the stock exchanges recently. No wonder, gold seems to keep rising.
Neither me nor you seem to understand this sector and market sufficiently. I predict going in now will result in contributing negative alpha so someone else can have their positive one.
Still, I might add a bit (5%) to my portfolio for its high volatility and relatively low correlation to stocks. I can replace a part of physical gold ETFs with it. Probably it will be GDX in its UCITS version.
Interesting NZZ article about gold/bitcoin vs stocks
Gold just keep his value over time so you not lost your money (depend of storage fee) but not win anything. Not dependent of local currency value due to international gold value. NZZ not explain why Russia and China drop their USD/bonds for buy gold instead.
No one can predict the future but we are in a rather unprecedented period of time.
So much debt on the main currency than no one can reimburse. Stock in another currency and Gold/BTC are pretty good value in Venezuela, Iran, Zimbabwe, Turkey, what’s next ?
Gold mine share probably drop with the market if market drop but can go higher if gold price increase. Physical gold have premium and storage fee that’s the probably better way for keep money instead of a bank account.
I don’t think the best solution is unique. You need to take advantage of all the opportunities that present themselves to you year after year by moving everything if necessary. At present the market can only go in one direction the fall that’s my personal opinion. Need a stock or value not falling too much for keep this value until the end of this drop.
Right. This time it’s different, huh?
People always say that.
Disclaimer: past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. 
I write “that’s my personal opinion”
You discuss with me in ~3 years about “always say that” ?
2000 no crash it’s not possible, 2008 mortgage can’t collapse due to AAA rating, 2020 printing unlimited money is pretty cool nothing can happen never ?
Choices for me are :
Everyone made these own choices but I can’t be positive for the next months/years with all happen around the globe. You can share what you think about the next months/years.
What about another scenario: USD currency crash replaced by… USD, with a lower purchasing power ? A bit like the stagflation of the 1970’s. Price inflation around 5% - 10% for years.
Of course! 
That’s not what I’m saying. A crash will be coming, but nobody knows when and what will cause it.
And that won’t change either: crashes will always be coming and nobody will know what will cause them.
This is an inaccurate depiction of what central banks are doing.
When have people ever been positive? The market has always felt insecure and will always feel insecure.
Reading the news and deciding that this time it’s all different and things must be done in a certain way at a certain time and before another time is probably not a successfully approach to investing.
The key lies in defining a diversified strategy that’s adapted to one’s needs, goals and risk tolerance, and then sticking to it.
@Zerte2 Only if people/countries accept to continue to use this worthless money for almost all. Look back when GBP has been replaced by USD. It’s not the first time and USD isn’t the last money 
@Neville you refuse message but this is my reply
That’s not what I’m saying. A crash will be coming, but nobody knows when and what will cause it.
And that won’t change either: crashes will always be coming and nobody will know what will cause them.
All ingredients are there for a big krach. When isn’t really important the only important thing is to be prepared and be ready.
This is an inaccurate depiction of what central banks are doing.
Central banks inject money inside already death enterprises and send money to everyone look US/AU. That can only increase debt and tax after sometime. Look how many money BCE send to EU bank for maintain their insane leverage. US bank have learn from 2008 to not be at more than 10. Lehmann have about 30 and most EU banks have more than 30…
When have people ever been positive? The market has always felt insecure and will always feel insecure.
Reading the news and deciding that this time it’s all different and things must be done in a certain way at a certain time and before another time is probably not a successfully approach to investing.
The key lies in defining a diversified strategy that’s adapted to one’s needs, goals and risk tolerance, and then sticking to it.
It’s wrong some signs are very positive sometime and trade war last year was a joke. I have just invest more when market is cheap
Right now isn’t a cheap market but just a bubble. You can play short term but it’s not a long term strategy.
You lost more by viewing your shares lost value day after day than sell all when it’s high and buy back when it’s low. One of first rule of investing
You can’t have a diversified strategy when all drop it’s just luck and luck isn’t a strategy. Even Buffet go to another market and value but lost a lot during big krach too much money for save all.
Almost all enterprises are affected by this crisis and nothing look good for near term future. If people lost their job they have less money to spend so all is negative for almost everybody. USD have already decrease his movement and not create any value. Most investors are disconnected from reality or take much more time for view actual reality.
People be positive when new enterprises are created all people have a job and money move a lot.
Some people not read not spend any time and just send money to a random ETF. Manager of these ETF win a lot of money with all fee and risks nothing not their money. These people can lost a lot and it’s hard to retrieve money if market stay stuck during years at the same krach price.
How so?
Exactly.
And?
How do you know that the system must revert to where it was before 2008?
With all due respect, but you are timing the market based on your apocalyptic view of the world. You think that this time everything is different and all will fall apart this time.
Again, the market will always feel insecure and there will always be prophets of doom telling you that all is bad.
The best defense against risk and crashes is diversification.
It is quite a preposterous thing to believe to know what Warren Buffett does or does not do and then decide, based on that, what somebody else should or should not do.
I agree. And this is nothing new; as a long-term passive investor, I believe and hope that I’m well positioned to weather times like these.
Error from private message : Sorry, Neville is not accepting messages at the moment.
Probably disable that
How do you know that the system must revert to where it was before 2008?
Never say anything about that just what can happen with a leverage of 30 during 2008 crisis. US stop high leverage of banks when EU not take any measure or too low for decrease that. What can happen no one know. ECB continue to print money for save banks may be ? Already receive a very huge amount of printed money with negative interest rate so received each year free money
With all due respect, but you are timing the market based on your apocalyptic view of the world.
First I not timing anything all markets are up when all goes bad and some enterprises take more long time than planned for resume their activity. It’s not an apocalyptic view but just actual view of the real world. Some countries have already worthless money, turkey-greece, CN-US, CN-HK, CN-Taiwan, CN-Australia, US-Russia with spy US planes, US-Iran, US-Syria, US have almost civil wars inside their own city,… all of these can turn into war.
EU banks have a high leverage it’s a fact search by yourself on their quarter results. Sometime people stay in their own bubble and ignore all.
It’s not often than we have so many things happen in the same time not remember that for 2008 by example.
Ok your diversification has working during march 2020 nothing lost or even win money ?
For me not and I lost 30/40% during march so not working very well even stock not impacted at all even positive during covid period drop.
If you read this Monday news Buffet have made a right move by short these US banks
How can you choose a stock not impacted by this crisis ?
I just found nothing all is linked even GAFAM. Google/Facebook depend of ads and not look good. Apple can’t sell 1000$ more phone when people have no jobs. Amazon may be but people can buy less if not have enough money for eat and have a home. Microsoft not know if enterprise continue to pay thousands USD for their software or try the free and open source for limit their spending. Banks can sell huge amount of gold if not have enough cash. Pretty hard to find a good enterprise if nothing come back quickly. What you have not linked to travel not ads dependent may be pharmaceutical and weapons if all turn pretty bad.
I don’t own any gold not do I plan to.
In the long run gold hardly makes any return above inflation.
If you invest for anything longer than 10 years, the only asset class that makes sense is shares. They are inflation indexed anyway.
In the short run gold can swing a lot.
Unless you want to try to gamble a bit on short term gains, I’d leave my fingers of gold.
You forget real estate…
Not at all. Among financial assets, only TIPS are inflation indexed.
Shares are totally inflation protected in the way that it does not matter if inflation is 1 or 3 percent for long investment periods. Because companies on average tend to set prices in line with inflation, over a 15-20 year period net returns are very unlikely to be affected by inflation.
They are more likely to be affected by volatile inflation admittedly.
I am looking at this in the context of a globally diversified ETF portfolio where weak companies that are vulnerable to inflation will just drop out of the index at some point. Then they will stop weighing down your returns.
Inflation protection (and currency hedging) only make sense for assets that you may need access in up to ten years or that you are not able to afford to lose.
I think that for very long term investment shares are the only way to go.
Look at other asset classes only for short or medium term (5, maybe 10 years).
Put the other way round, don’t go all in with shares with any funds that you may need to access in the next 5-10 years.