These numbers are huge only in comparison with past numbers.
What I meant to say, when I said that the system must not necessarily revert to its pre-2008 state, is that we simply don’t know if this is “the new normal”.
Also, the mere fact that a central bank expands its balance sheet does not yet have an immediate effect on the economy.
The world has always been on the brink of war.
Objectively there is never a good time to invest and enter the market.
Well, markets are expected to rebound and recover, if you just wait long enough.
The most difficult thing for me is less when and how to enter the market, but how to leave it.
Buffett probably doesn’t tell journalists everything that he thinks and does…
These numbers are huge only in comparison with past numbers.
A PE is a PE can’t be past or present.
Central bank no effect ? Invest directly on the market for up the market but no effect for you ? The other effect are all “undead” companies that should no longer be there without printed money.
The world has always been on the brink of war.
Sometime less than more. Look all wars during the past years and time between wars… An human stay an human and probably never evolve.
The most difficult thing for me is less when and how to enter the market, but how to leave it.
Just make a choice and assume it not so hard
Buffett probably doesn’t tell journalists everything that he thinks and does…
Not really have choice to list all shares buy/sell
Which is why diversification is essential.
What is the point of diversification when everything falls just lost a little less ?
March was a good example only some enterprise go higher so diversification not work but just need the right targets. One hedge found change their plan in January February that was not for nothing. Just view before other what happen. So this work most of the time but not all the time.
I have some “IAU” shares (GLD is also an option but with slightly higher fees).
But that’s just a short-term (< 1 year) thing because I’m trying to time the market. Ban me.
You need to read a little when absolutely all is negative you go to cash or found share/value/asset who can keep his value or recover faster than another during this bad time and just wait months/years for not lost too much. CHF is a good money for this purpose too. When all goes again green go back and wait to go up or all goes bad again. Right now I wait some value to decrease for enter and I keep my money there for about 3 years but keep looking sometime what happen. When go again green I return on the market.
Keep 100$ lost 50% for reach 50$ need 100% for recover his past value. If you leave even months before drop you lost some $ but not 50% and you can recover 80% may be more so you lost less and win more nothing is bad. Not really timing just anticipate what can happen in next months/years. If you are wrong you go back. It’s a game and not win all the time
Market is full of sheep who follow some news some people or not know what but when you see a Tesla at 1000 PE you just not follow these sheeps or daily scalping but need a little more knowledge not for me yet
Tesla for example will drop badly but when I don’t know so sell high waiting time needed for go to a 10/20 PE and buy low
@marcel
They are more gold paper than physical gold on this world. A little more fee but physical gold is probably safer than paper gold
Next year if bank are impacted and close down may be should sell all their assets gold inclusive and can decrease badly just don’t know.
@yakari what is VT and VWRL ?
VT
Apple Inc
Microsoft Corp Amazon.com Inc
Facebook Inc
Alibaba Group Holding Ltd
Alphabet Inc
Alphabet Inc Class C
Tencent Holdings Ltd
VWRL
Apple Inc
Microsoft Corp Amazon.com Inc
Facebook Inc
Alibaba Group Holding Ltd
Alphabet Inc Class C
Alphabet Inc
Johnson & Johnson
Of course it can be. A PE all by itself doesn’t say much, it makes sense only in relation to other numbers.
A central bank does not have an immediate effect on the market. Nor is it the only agent influencing the market.
You do understand the function of diversification and asset allocation, right?
Of course, if one believes, like you, that all assets are rigged and everything is going to fall apart, then diversifying and investing doesn’t make much sense anymore.
And these are growth numbers based of already sky-high revenues. Those are all amazing companies and deservedly expensive. You’re bascially being an idiot if you think avoiding strongest businesses in the wolrd improves your portfolio.
I believe those are y/y numbers from the last quarter.
I see you are trying to apply valuations, but a lot of conditions have changed. With 0% fed rates, money is free, but only for those who are growing and have no prior debt. The companies which are struggling (value …) still have to pay through the nose to refinance debt. Just look up Rolls Royce, last week they had to refinanance at a 41.4% discount on equity. And the equity was already 80% down YTD.
Valuation is yet another story.
I was just interested in comparing the companies’ revenue growth to what Mr Market thinks when its left hand buys shares from his right hand.
Here I have added a column with the y/y price change (latest price vs. 1 year ago).
Indeed, but accounting for inflation, loss of USD value and macro conditions fueling growth, these may be perfectly adequate numbers. The market is usually right, being contrarian hardly ever works out.
I’d be more worried about the 495 out of 500 businesses in the S&P500 which are stagnant or negative YTD.
I can’t short US action and switch my account to a more basic account so can’t even on EU market
Short isn’t really a nice move but if you have enough money and you have time why not just need low interest rate.
The market can take time but always ends up reflecting reality.
Ok Neville give me your stock/ETF who let your entire portfolio to stay flat or up during march 2020 due to your perfect diversification. My diversification take about -30% even shares not impacted at all during this months so just a bad diversification if happen again and drop lower.
A very good diversification should have no impact or even improve from first month of this year compared to march.
I’m really an idiot because never send 0.01$ directly to Apple Facebook Microsoft. Google and Amazon probably same. Why ?
Because I can’t accept to jail people in Apple ecosystem. Apple is probably the worst company ever. Remove removable battery, change sim size when smartphone got bigger, remove all ports people should destroy working product and buy new one, hijacked free anonymous and open linux mirror for create a jail authenticated paid store, their products come from china and just increase their margin by reducing production cost and many more things like proprietary connectors but it’s my personal opinion.
Facebook take control of people for send targeted ads destroy privacy and this can destroy whole democracy. Democracy may be not perfect but not so bad too need to found a new way now may be given the right to vote only to people targeted ads resistant.
Microsoft say open source is cancer and now change his mind because can win more money with that. Their OS isn’t so good but not all is bad. I think open source is the future and prefer invest in open source than closed source with backdoor and hidden code.
Google made great things and have helped people. This world have changed with Google but not in 100% clean way badly.
Amazon just not like their store due to genuine product but counterfeit too and can’t really know what you buy genuine or garbage. Servers hosting side seen good streaming too.
I think I can earn money without giving it to the wrong companies. I’m probably an idiot because can take longer but I just not follow like other sheep and search by myself often small companies growing and need really my money.
Market has been build for give cash to help companies to grow. GAFAM not need more money they have enough money. Search and try to found what the world need in some years after look all companies on that
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Ban me.
