Cup of Coffee vs. CS share

What would you rather buy?

obvious; CS
ㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤ

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But coffee smells great, CS not so much :laughing:

Honestly, I wonder if CS really is as much trash as the share price decrease implies?

Maybe it’s a (foul-smelling) bargain? Who knows.

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A cup of coffee. At least, it smells better.

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CS is probably a good deal, just like it was a good deal when you bought the bottom at 12 CHF in july '12, or the bottom at 8.5 CHF in july '16, or the bottom at 6 CHF in march '20

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I choose a healthy lifestyle and I take a traditional drink that was around for millennia: beer.

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I’ll take whatever percentage I can get of a share of a company with at least decent corporate culture and prospects over both of these. :wink:

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CS is a no brainer to me, the price is way below the book value.

But I’m not a financial advisor, just a guy on the internet.

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That’s exactly the point. They need a purgatory to get rid of wish-washing around bad ethics and real values. Only then can they expect the clientele to stick.

The expected monetary value of a cup of coffee is zero - but at least it has a temporary kick.
Same as CS stock price on the long run, unless they radically change.

I’ll stay skeptical, don’t touch CS with a stick and take a Nespresso for 0.50CHF instead of a café for 5 CHF (oh sorry, only 3 CHF now :smiley: )

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If you look at Credit Suisse’s business, it’s growth in recent years has largely been in Asia, and primarily in asset management.

Its business in Switzerland and other western countries has been somewhat stagnant. It’s business in the US has been extremely problematic, with the US imposing massive fines.

With its new Asian shareholders, I expect Credit Suisse to make a gradual shift away from western countries (and all the ethical expectations, cultural expectations, scandals, risk of fines, competition from neobanks, etc.) to the Asian market where Credit Suisse, and Switzerland in general, are strong brands associated with success, where ethics are worlds apart from western values, fines are rare, and prestige commands a markup.

If it can make that shift successfully, it certainly has potential for strong growth. I’m assuming that is what the new investors are banking on.

So I’d happily take a CS share over a coffee, just to put my hunch to the test.

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Well, they diluted the share count, so there is that.

just bought a Call, 3.2 strike for 15. Dec 2023. Lets see what happens.

Can anyone tell me why noone wants to buy CS if it’s such a bargain? Specialists would be able to see through it if it was “just” some bad media coverage.

some reasons:

  • capital outflow of 88B in the last months while they say they want to focus on private banking (well hard to do with 0 capital).
  • Brain drain, many many talented people are leaving
  • As always once the chart turns red people get scared.
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CS is doing everything a large corporation is not supposed to do (silo thinking & budgeting, zero leverage on horizontals, elbow culture/heavy internal politics). With such a rigid oldschool corporate governance they are alienating the best workforce and wasting money without end. And you can’t transform yourself when your best people have left and the only ones that remain are only having one goal: to keep their salary flowing and to make sure to keep the status quo…

They are doomed to fail as a corporation.
They will need to fire 50% of their workforce so they have some breathing room to hire changemakers.
So far I see nothing of that happening.

Financial governance is also down the drain (see all the scandals).

Values/ethics governance is questionable with Saudi money.

Corporate financing is also strange, diluting shareholders while being in distress.

Short interest must be huge.

Need any more reasons? :smiley:

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I believe in efficient markets and think we just don’t know what will happen.

But I prefer to buy what people are scared to buy and sell what people are eager to buy (countercyclical).

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It’s gonna be an exciting ride for sure :smile:

I’m going to put 1-2K to buy some CS stock if it continues to drop below 2.80. I will consider that money as betting money and not think about it anymore.

I see 3 possible scenarios:

  • CS goes bankruptcy (unlikely in my opinion)
  • positive turnaround after the application of their “clean-up” strategy (very likely)
  • buyout by another bank (low probability).

In 2 cases out of 3, the return seems to me to be higher than the initial investment. I’ll enjoy drinking my coffee and checking the charts from time to time :smiley:.

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The value of Credit Suisse, in my opinion, is in its brand. With banking shifting to the Internet, branding has a lot of value. If you were to offer the average African/American/Asian (or even Swiss for that matter) a choice between an affordable neobank with the Credit Suisse brand and one with, say, the Neon or Yuh brand, which do you think most people will choose?

Obviously there is a lot of baggage, namely, just about everything other than the brand. Whether and how CS will manage to offload all that will make the difference, in my opinion. So I expect there may be a further price correction while the pros watch and wait.

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Wait for CS to go bust to get some cheap loot afterwards :upside_down_face:?