Coronavirus: when do we reach the bottom of the dip?

Unemployment rates to be announced this morning in the US.
I am expecting another market halt to trigger. :cold_face:

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How can anyone be shocked with the unemployment numbers, when everybody expects it? :slight_smile:

BTW, cool Covid19 tracker to follow:

True, but dunno, maybe the “short term reactionists” and short sellers who will want to cash out on the gains from last 2 days (although it already started probably late yesterday eve - that final 15m drop was very interesting :slight_smile:).
Let’s see.

Hoping for it, want to buy some more :slight_smile:

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I find this super interesting :smiley:
They analyzed satellite, GPS and social media data to detect that China industry is slowly waking up.
(whether it is too early and dangerous is another discussion)

https://spectrum.ieee.org/view-from-the-valley/artificial-intelligence/machine-learning/satellites-and-ai-monitor-chinese-economys-reaction-to-coronavirus

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So this is the occasion to do an experiment:
The rumours saying “unemployment is surging to 30% in US and revenues are down 50%” are circulating since last weekend at least. So we should expect they are already priced in. If today’s number are consistent with the rumours, then the markets should not move a lot.
Otherwise, so much for the theory…

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Report comes in at 13h30 our time. Buy orders ready? :wink:

How long will it take for countries outside Asia or Czech republic to realize that homemade mask for all can contribute to the reduction of the spread?

I hope that the App that is developed at EPFL will be available for widespread use in a few weeks. So that we can have the “dance” after the wave:

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“U.S. Initial Jobless Claims Surge to Record 3.28 Million”

markets very slighltly UP, although roughly unchanged.

How is -2.3% on the S&P Futures up?
But yes, it was a “golden middle” between 1.5 and 5M speculated. :grin:

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It looks like it was totally priced in.

This image was already posted but we might enter today the phase that is described in the middle of the bottom picture?

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Same graph as above, 30m later. I guess unemployment is not that bad if we have helicopter money.

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I’d be very happy then! That means I’ll keep my job, the economy recovers and I’ll invest more of my net worth in stocks. I don’t mind having some worthless options if everything else goes well! I see put options as a hedge

Yup I have to pay more in taxes than you would have to if you just hold, but I don’t mind (it’s a lot more profitable too right now)

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Ok let’s just have a break…
https://www.decisionproblem.com/paperclips/index2.html

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+1 my salary just arrived to my bankaccount and it’s much more difficult for me psychologically to buy now.

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It is a bit weird that we felt comfortable investing on the top but we’re not comfortable investing significantly lower - even if it’s half way to bottom, like some people predict, it’s still significant discounted in comparison to the long term average. So there’s reasonable chance that stocks bought now will perform much better than anything we bought during last couple of years. If the stocks tank more and we’re be able to buy cheaper, then even better for our long term performance. If they won’t tank, we might loose chance of the decade. It’s difficult psychologically, but I think investing now makes sense (but just in case it’s going down more, I’m doing DCA).

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with visuals too: