But it’s much harder to screw up the data for the number of deaths than for the number of infected. If you classify too many cases as covid-19, then we will see that suddenly fewer people die of cancer and other diseases than last year. So yeah, maybe there are differences between countries, but it will be all ironed out in the end.
That’s terrible. So someone dies at home and they bury him without a diagnosis? Or do they take a sample, just don’t test immediately?
Anyway, my main concern regarding the projections is that we could see an unexpected spike in death rate if we reach a tipping point where the healthcare system can no longer handle all severe cases.
I think it means “every man must die”. Game of Thrones was great until the last season, where it was just so terrible, that it’s unimaginable. Same happened to House of Cards after Spacey scandal.
come on don’t be so grumpy, we are just chatting in an internet forum, take it easy
Anyway, it means “Everyone must die”. This concept can help you a lot dealing with the loss of a loved one, and just to see the biggest picture in the frame of our role in the universe (=insignificant). You find this concept from the beginning of time, and the stoics wrote also a lot about it.
So actually I can be proud to have internalized this concept
Not sure they take a sample, at the moment they don’t test (they still have to do prioritization for testing, most likely someone who’s already dead is not a priority). France is talking about adding those cases to the official fatality report, not sure how that will work.
Post facto, there definitely will be some statistical analysis which will reveal the true cost compared to seasonal expectations. But that might take a few months.
That’s easy to say when it’s not you who is affected. It seems to me you lack empathy, at least on the Internet. I know it’s easy to misinterpret somebody’s words if you don’t know them very well, so I’ll give you the benefit of the doubt .
I’m sure you know the quote of Stalin:
If only one man dies of hunger, that is a tragedy. If millions die, that’s only statistics
I hope we don’t fall victim to this kind of thinking. These are real people dying. And yes, it’s kind of weird that we obsess over these deaths, but we were indifferent towards deaths from car crashes, obesity and cardiovascular diseases that happen every year. But the reasonable explanation is: we don’t know yet how big the death toll will be, will there be a second wave, will our economy withstand it? So for the time being I would be more careful with the choice of words.
Good points. I mean still there are other things more deadly than corona, there’s not doubt about it. The difference is that corona deaths are largely preventable in short time with proper government measures and society’s discipline.
There are many things uncertain about this virus. You mentioned some questions - additional is if this virus will mutate and become seasonal? How long will work the immunity once someone is infected? How long this epidemic will last?
Some data shows that in a town in northern Italy with a population of 11k people they had an average of 35 deaths in Q1 of previous years. COVID official deaths are 31, total deaths in 2020Q1 are 158. You can see that the data is highly unreliable right now and the death toll can be considerably higher.
I cannot get over this feminist demonstration in Madrid on March 8. Supported by the authorities, 120k people on the streets. They are and will responsible for many deaths.
Meanwhile there were football matches, concerts, political events, and millions of people in the underground, buses, trains, etc… Just because “economy > people” in most of the countries in the world. But the main problem were women in a demonstration. Please stop spreading your bullshit.
Not bullshit at all. Many others also contributed on concerts, matches, and so on, but government allowed for this demonstration even though they already knew there’s epidemic spreading in Madrid. And the gender equality minister joined in.
Not exactly this but since people dying from this virus are mostly sick or with poor life expectancy, will we see a drop in overall death rate after the pandemic? (assuming many of these people would have died anyway within the next x years)
Or maybe the raw number of deaths is too low anyway and it will just be noise…
"The UK economy is plunging into a deeper recession than the 2008-09 financial crisis, according to the most reliable data published so far, with unemployment surging and the public finances sliding sharply into the red because of the coronavirus pandemic.
Economists said there was huge uncertainty over the depth of the coming recession and the speed of the subsequent recovery. Some predict the downturn will be short and sharp, but fear that like a decade ago, there will also be a painful transition to a persistently weaker path for economic growth.
With most UK households under lockdown, high streets shuttered except for essential stores, and many companies struggling to keep going, large parts of the economy are grinding to a halt."
Last game in La Liga was played on March 10. I agree, they should have cancelled the games sooner as well! They say that the Atalanta-Valencia game in Milan on Feb 23 was a biological bomb for Spain.
This is typical anti-capitalist socialist blabla. “Economy” is not just money, getting rich, etc. It’s about providing the necessary goods and services for our survival. If you just lock everything down on day 1 without caring about the economy then you might cause more suffering than the virus will. In this context I understand the authorities, which we’re careful with limiting economic activity.
People commuting to work has an added value, people attending concerts, parties and demonstrations: this can be postponed.
Sometimes I also put my tinfoil on and think that Italy is pushing these numbers just to have some economic advantages from EU…(I know is a stupid theory, don’t worry I am a rational man)
Not stupid. I on the other hand am convinced, that the numbers in China are far worse than what we have seen and are still seeing today. The death numbers are really low, and the spread was contained too quickly for my personal opinion. It’s exactly what I would do if I wanted people to go back to work and save the economy. Hope I’m wrong…
I think recovery was slow, because no real measures have been taken. To allow businesses to thrive, you have to cut the red tape, cut taxes, cut import tariffs, and allow fair competition. QE has to be stopped and interest rates increased. It will bankrupt many companies, but capital should not flow to ineffective businesses. You only achieve real growth if you constantly optimize your processes, not if you constantly help the ones who are in trouble…
Fascinating how this threads oscillates between investment-talk and social-awareness-talk. I’m pretty sure we could make a chart out of it and it would make show correlations when overlaid with VT.
Still, as immoral as it is to point this out, death of the elderly and sick is a huge relief to most social security systems, same as mass layoffs are usually good news for corporate balance sheets. This is exactly why you do not mix emotions with money.
The chart shows your productivity and consumption according to your age. Between the ages of 20-60 you are net productive. After 60 you consume more than you produce (on average), so it would be beneficial for the rest of the World if you just died already. But! The same applies to FIRE people, who retired at 40! You retired early with millions that you will now slowly spend for the next 50 years on food and rent? Well then your premature death would be beneficial to the economy as well! And I’m not joking here, it really is like this.
By the way, all the infrastructure, roads, palaces and landmarks that we have is a result of people in general being net productive over their lifetime. That is: the area under the blue line is larger than under the black line. It’s the inheritance from our ancestors.
That holds only if the current health crises move the needle substantially in terms of death of sick / elderly people. At the current level, I doubt that would be the case. On the other hand, the measures taken to control the spread hurts many sections of society with full force. At societal level, minimisation of damage is a tricky problem.
Of course, it wont even tip the scales. People are not very good at putting numbers in perspective. Global death toll is 21500 right now. Even if it goes 10x higher than that, this is a drop in the sea comparing to the worlds population.
I’m not gonna discuss morality of this for obvious reasons. But on the cost/benefit analysis side, I doubt costs saved from current deaths will balance out the damage that this virus (and preventive measures) are causing to the economy.
Mass layoffs might be good for balance sheets, I’m not sure it’s that benefitial on the revenue side once it happens for entire economy - in US unemployment is projected to rise 30% this year.
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