Was just reading that testing capacity is just 2k (Face au virus, le Conseil fédéral est sous la forte pression des cantons - Le Temps). Even with limited testing like they do, it’s probably well over capacity already 
I would say the 19% of yesterday sounds too low on the other hand. So maybe a delay in testing caused same cases to be counted today instead of yesterday. Of course speculation at this point.
Futures halted, market might react with a massive correction tomorrow.
The Fed’s decision (zero rates and 700 Billion QE) might be too modest to make markets happy. It’s a 2008-style crisis response. They should try negative rates and a few Trillions QE, including “helicopter money”. Markets need stronger drugs nowadays!
Had no effect. Futures market halted after only 5 minutes of trading! We might see the biggest drop tomorrow.
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Let’s see… perhaps they announce a more credible QE program tomorrow.
Something like 5 trillion? 
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Future markets are still -5% I‘ll rebalance again TLT towards stocks and expect a rolllercoaster week. The big cities of the US will most likely have to enter the same lock-down mode as many countries in Europe and some cantons in CH. My head is already drawing a Scenario where plundering of super market stores in the US will happen because people lost their jobs - had to close their mini business and go bankrupt - and therefore can‘t buy food. National guard will patrol etc…Let‘s hope this scenario stays in my head.
It looks like it was worth it selling my VIOV position. Now I can reenter at ~2400 today 
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This increase is no surprise, go and draw a logarithmic function. Until Wednesday we will have 4000 until Friday 5000 infected - they all got infected last week. If the measures do not help we will have 10k by next Monday, 20 k by Wednesday in a week. But I assume the measures will now start working and slow it down, so I guess we will have about 7000 until next Monday and 10-12k until Wednesday in a week.
For the interested ones, there is a book „the tipping point“ by malcom gladwell, he descibed such scenarios and more fictive scenarios that hopefully stay fictive in that book.
I wonder what else should be done? One missing step is lockdown, which a few cantons already announced. Although, I’ll admit, I’ve in Luzern on Saturday and it looked like business as usual, lots of people on the streets, save for the missing Chinese tourists and sad deserted luxury watch shops.
You don’t seem to know what you’re talking about. My chart shows around 33% growth per day, which is a characteristic of exponential growth. Then a dip with only 19%, then an explosion of +63%. These two days do not add up to 33% per day.
FT has a nice updated coverage on the matter. You can see the spike in Switzerland. Let’s hope it’s just a one off diversion from the trend (in the bad direction).
One more thing they started tracking like this are deaths:
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Highly optimistic! It’s exponential at the beginning, so anything below 20k by end of this week will be a wonder.
It is only exponential because not enough time has passed. I expect the lock-down of ZH, baselstadt, Geneva by this Wednesday, they have a lot of peer pressure now from the other cantons. This will definitely change people‘s mindset and even when they go outside to sit in the grass or on a bench they will start applying social distancing. Peer pressure is our friend.
You forgot about all the people that are already infected but show now symptoms. All those charts do not reflect reality because no country has tested all the people. What ever increase you see is then only because of an increase in testing capacity. Therefore it is not exponential, look at China and Southkorea is that an exponential curve? If I would use one function to model this I would use a power law or a log function.
You need to understand your sampling mechanism and it‘s weakness if you want to make any valid conclusions.
I have to correct on of my statements! Some of the curves do reflect reality, it‘s there were the sampling size is big enough! Any deviations you see from the normal trend, is only because of change in sampling mechanisms - check the big peak in China when they introduced X-Ray as screening!
You were the one who told me to draw a chart…
Why didn’t you say that in the first place, but sent me to the drawing board? And is this some confirmed fact or just your intuition, because you didn’t specify.
Newsflash, this is a semi-log plot, base 10. I’ve already linked to 3blue1brown youtube video, which explains that these pandemics follow a logistic curve. That is, they are exponential until they reach a point when they aren’t. Again, proves you don’t know what you’re talking about.
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Did you notice that I am not having a discussion on who is right and wrong. Please note when you say they are exponential until they aren‘t anymore then it‘s not exponential from the beginning!
For anyone who does not want to rely on youtube videos and internet.
I can send you the article
Well didn’t you just write you would use a log function? So what is it? Just be consistent within your own statements, please.
Here’s a screenshot from the youtube video, which you so easily downplay.
As you can see, up to a point, the growth is pretty much exponential, and after that point it doesn’t matter that much, because we’re reaching a stop. Also, note how all the serious coverage uses a semi log plot, so it is indeed the best graphical representation that we have.
To make it clear. I would still use a log function. To make it even more clear if you model something, you always use the simplest model and you do not change the model just somewhen because it does not fit anymore. Yes you point out with your chart that log and exp function show similar behaviour in the beginning - correct! But your graph also shows that exp function is wrong after some time! So please show one mathematical equation that models the increase in corona infected FOR ALL TIMES using an exp function? You won‘t find one. What I am asking everyone is to use the correct terminology. It is a logarithmic growth! To make it even more clear, if you want to have exp growth start producing babys in an exp. way and then also ask your friends to produce babys in an exp. way - not possible right? Therefore, we don‘t have an exp growth.
You mean it becomes wrong after severe measures are implemented (China) or countries do effective testing + quarantine (south Korea). If we’re lucky in a week or so Italy will stop doubling every 3 days.
Or maybe here it will stop growing due to lack of testing capacity (2k/days?).
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I don’ t know how this thing works, but why aren’t the market suspended? Do you know?