Can’t she survive a month or two without earnings? I guess this is something we Mustachians take for granted are always prepared for…
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BTW. A good interview on what is coming:
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The fixed costs will make it very hard, but doable.
I hope for the best.
She has a nail saloon.
Salon, but I just imagine a western style place with swinging doors, where you can get your nails done 
No, but seriously, it has to really suck to be in her place, or other small business owners. You have pay rent, but you can see no clients. Big companies will get bailed out, what about the small guys?
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Nobody cares (or should care) about a lost quarter or two. When you are running your own company, you care about profits it is likely to generate in the upcoming 10 years or so
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Just a reminder for people that still think this is the flu:
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Not really, no.
But firstly, it might be enough to put her into serious liquidity problems - and/or could have an effect on her personal consumption. Chances are there will be an effect and subsequent ripple effects extending to more than just one or two quarters. Not unlike on the stock markets.
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This will decrease spending massively. Right now nobody is thinking about vacations, buying a new Iphone etc.
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The herd immunity strategy is openly applied by the british government. I am convinced that in Switzerland it is also the strategy that is applied but without calling it that way in order not to have a panic within the population. The closure of the schools is only a measure to avoid it to spread too fast with a saturation of intensive care units but it will not decrease finally the percentage of the population who got the virus. You have to be logic, if you can’t contain it in China, if you can’t contain it when you have only few cases in Switzerland how could you contain it with officially 1200 cases and probably much more. Let the wave go over the population with minimal loss of life.
From Bogleheads
Past S&P 500 bear market drops since 1929, peak to trough, were:
Bear markets | The business cycle explained | Fidelity
-86% / 34 months / Recession / 1-Year After +124%
-60% / 61 months / Recession / 1-Year After 59%
-59% / 27 months / Recession / 1-Year After 68%
-49% / 31 months / Recession / 1-Year After 34%
-48% / 21 months / Recession / 1-Year After 38%
-36% / 18 months / Recession / 1-Year After 44%
-34% / 4 months / No Recession / 1-Year After 23%
-30% / 37 months / Recession / 1-Year After 42%
-28% / 6 months / No Recession / 1-Year After 33%
-27% / 21 months / Recession / 1-Year After 58%
-22% / 8 months / No Recession / 1-Year After 33%
-22% / 14 months / Recession / 1-Year After 31%
-20% / 3 months / Recession / 1-Year After 29%
-20% / 3 months / No Recession / 1-Year After 37%If we’re currently at -25%, then based on limited and not significant historical data:
20% of the time, it was a 25-29% drop
30% of the time, it was a 30-36% drop
40% of the time, it was a 48-60% drop
10% of the time, it was an 86% drop
So the most likely case will be a drop to ~1900-2000.
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So… if that were true, then all the calls to stay at home should apply to old people and people with pre-existing conditions. Healthy young people (like most of us in the forum) should go out and infect each other?
Btw I just read something scary. In the spring of 1918 the Spanish flu only killed some older people and babies, and the it was fine again. But in autumn it mutated and started killing also young people.
Also, did you know that on March 8 there was a big feminist march in Madrid, where 120k people took part, and the government didn’t forbid it? And since then we had 3000 cases in Madrid…
Making sense if we consider that schools are NOT closed as they keep the possibility to welcome kids. I also do not see any strong measure like closing shops (except food etc) like France announced yesterday (while maintaining elections today 
). Still do not understand why we do not take drastic measures quickly like some Asian countries
Maybe swiss people are better at following authorities advice? (Staying home, keeping social distance). In France a large part of the population was ignoring them (restaurants and cafes being packed with people), so gov stepped in to enforce it.
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No - because a small but considerable part of them will have a severe course and need medical treatment accordingly.
With the rate of infections, they have to flatten the curve, so as not to overstrain the health system.
Here some description of herd immunity strategy,
And here some concerns about herd immunity strategy
I am expecting that the herd immunity strategy will be highly discussed next week in the news!
I’m fairly sure most reasonable countries are not trying herd immunity, but social isolation.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/corona-simulator/
has pretty good infographics, I’d actually split the purple set between recovered and fatalities, which is even more telling why it’s the best strategy.
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Why not both? social distancing helps to flatten the growth curve, but with moderate distancing it will anyway cause many people to get infected. What if the virus stays alive for too long and it mutates, becoming more lethal? With herd immunity, it would not spread anymore, because it would not infect people who already recovered.
Because it would likely take a very large amount of time to acquire full herd immunity without overloading hospitals.
Best hope would be to get a vaccine.
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