Coronavirus: when do we reach the bottom of the dip?

Peanuts! Who held BTC? :wink:

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I must say this forum is a big ressource, I could get ahead by 1 hour to news portal like NZZ and the closure of our school. Thank you!

Makes me feel like we could predict the market :sweat_smile:

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Trust me, it didn’t even cross my mind. I know, it’s weird. They warn you about people losing their nerve and selling. I guess what really helps is to have this cash cushion that lets you have the comfort that even if you went unemployed, you still had enough to support you for a few years (in super saver mode, but still). I just feel stupid, I missed out on an incredible buying opportunity by buying 2 weeks to soon.

At this point, it can continue to go down, I don’t care. Right now I need to stock up in cash again to be ready to buy once the market isn’t as volatile anymore. It will be a challenge to know when to buy again. Consider, that previous bear markets lasted 1-2 years. This one is happening at an extremely fast pace. They say: the bigger the drops, the shorter the crash (logical). It will for sure be correlated with corona a lot.

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But you cashed in some nice gains recently, it’s not as bad as it looks :slight_smile:

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Lets hope this one is too! We can make some good use of the sale!

I wish we could really predict it, but nobody can. Best thing we can do is make a good guess.

Definitely a valuable experience, I think I’m ok with my overall portfolio/risk (I’m probably more on the conservative side anyway, 65% stock). The moves are still very impressive


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Today I received dozens of messages from people asking me what to do.
50% of them sold or planned to sell.
Everyone is cashing out their losses.

The problem is the use of verbs.
When markets go up, the narrative of wannabe investors is “markets are GOING up”. Nope, they WENT up.
When markets go down, they say that “markets are GOING down”. Nope, they WENT down.

That’s the reason why the average investor buy high (let me jump in, markets are GOING up) and sell low (holy shit, markets are GOING down!).

In bear markets, stocks return to their rightful owners.

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Btw just received an email from IB re: margin, I hope nobody was heavily leveraged, that can really hurt.

Also take in account your whole portfolio (house, pillar 2, pillar 3), not only your ETF investements,
Pillar 2 is massively invested in bonds, so your whole portfolio is maybe already conservative

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Holy crap, if I cashed out my losses I would feel an even bigger loser than now. At least now I can live with hope that in, i dont know, 5 years my return will recover. No point in selling if we don’t know when the time to buy should be.

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I love this article https://www.businessinsider.com/forgetful-investors-performed-best-2014-9?r=US&IR=T

O’Shaughnessy: “Fidelity had done a study as to which accounts had done the best at Fidelity. And what they found was
”

Ritholtz: “They were dead.”

O’Shaughnessy: “
No, that’s close though! They were the accounts of people who forgot they had an account at Fidelity.”

Because of our behavioral biases, we often find ourselves buying high and selling low.

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You can leverage 1.6 and won’t get a margin call unless the market goes down 50%.
1.425 when you don’t want a call until 60%.

Yes that’s how I compute my allocation.

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Which means I still have 50%+ to go before I get a call. Let’s hope this is not going to happen :slight_smile:

That’s the best thing about being fully invested. You know you have to ride it out and there is no way that you would actually realize the loss by selling it. Buying more (even if it drops further) is extremely satisfying because you see that your avg. buying price droped. I invested again today and my avg. buying price went down by 10$. Feels a lot better now seeing my VTIs avg. price at 162$ and not 172$ at the peak lol.

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It seems the press conference will take place tomorrow at 17:00 and not at midnight, right?

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Yes, I am a bit confused but it makes more sense, midnight was weird.

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I was waiting for it so kinda annoying but yes, it does make more sense.

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Great, so we have the whole day to short leverage SMI lol.

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