What do you mean by thinking? I went for SPXU last Friday.
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How about selling everything for SPXU and TMF? Lol.
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It would be like killing a zombie 
. The fracking business was never profitable. The only profitability estimate Iâve found so far was from this article: 1.5$ spent per 1$ income. At the time the barrel was 100$. It would put the breakeven price at 150$/barrel, right? Perhaps there are other estimates around. Given the prestige aspect of that activity, the US could end up nationalize or bail out distressed companies.
Something worth reading.
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Itâs too early yet for UPRO, as others have mentionend it already, I also expect some companies to go bankrupt during this âoil price warâ and then fail to pay their debts. Iâll rebalance back to TLT after 1-2 days and believe it will fall further. At some point Iâll do a small bet with UPRO.
I miss the 4th option, investing 199 dollar every month, and use the reminder to time the market every now and then and not the 4 crashes. Itâs worth reading because it displays the extreme, but truth is always somewhere in between
You mean remainder. Makes no sense, every extra dollar should go into the superior strategy.
Well, I already see by my own example that I would have bought it cheaper, have I been investing once a month and not waiting for a crash.
And the crash came, but then came another crash. Itâs another puzzle to say when itâs safe to buy.
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futures are going up⊠time to buy?
ahah
Switzerland is now where Italy was two weeks ago, just sayingâŠ
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And perhaps, just perhaps, global stock markets are where the Chinese stock market was on the 3rd February.
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Hm, I actually agree with you that if itâs a pure buy and hold strategy and that is the easiest, most robust, and least effort strategy - all that counts is the time in the market. But it is not the best strategy because there are also other strategies than buy & hold but I do not recommend them to anyone. It requires a different risk perception and effort.
If you buy that ETF, how long would you intend to hold it? Is it something you buy and hold for a couple of days? Itâs nothing more than doing a bet right? Yesterday would have been a good day to buy it.
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I have been running a risk parity approach with UPRO and TMF based on the famous Hedgefundie thread on bogleheads forum. Given the market volatility, it might better to be heavy in TMF than UPRO now.
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While everybody is panicking, Berkshire Hathaway is issuing 5-years bonds paying a coupon of ⊠0%.
When monetary policies are such that it feels safer to give your money for 5 years to a corporate rather than keeping it on your bank accountâŠ
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âŠin Euro, not USD.
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Frankly speaking it wasnât so bad. I have been preparing myself for this for last three years. I wonder though how I would feel if I got -50k (-50%). And how my wife would react⊠Hope she wonât kill me once this happens. :-p
BTW. Who bought yesterday dip? I bought VT at 67.70 but only 30 shares as I was scared. Should have bought more.
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I bought VTI, VEA and VWO but not at the very bottom. Iâm more proud of buying GREK, ERUS and KSA at the bottom, even if small amounts.
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PS. El-Erianâs Advice to Investors: Do Not Buy This Dip https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2020-03-09/el-erian-s-advice-to-investors-do-not-buy-this-dip
I have no idea who that guy is. But also do not misinterpret my purchase as a particular skill. I see my asset dip 10% below target, I buy to bring it back to balance, no second thoughts. Thatâs the plan and I stick to it.
Yesterday a particularly large number of assets triggered that level so there I was buying even though another -10% could be lurking down the road. Who knows, right?
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