Coronavirus: when do we reach the bottom of the dip?

Investing / Others
473

SP500 futures market was halted today due to circuit breakers.

Prepare for the biggest drop today, might see -10% in SP500.

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474

This is going to be painful.
Nikkei -5.4%
ASX -7.4%



Remember - stick to the plan!

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475

Goddamnit, why did I not wait till this madness is over? :man_shrugging:

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476

Because this is not about the virus., you couldn’t have known.
This is OPEC braking up and KSA starting an all out price war in oil. Crude Oil -28% as I write this. This is big.

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477

Price war, as in: offering oil at a cheaper price? Why is that bad news?

478

Check what‘s happening in Japan, and what it does to the dollar and then think about how much the US is importing using dollars to pay


479

You’re still ~15% better off than me, no matter what happens :smile:

I’m preparing for the biggest crash since 1929.

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480

Cheap oil is good for economy, except perhaps for deflationary pressure. It’s not good for the overleveraged financial market as nothing is in balance any more and strategies collapse, trigerring margin calls and rebalancing to safe assets (bonds). If this escalates further, it is financial crisis 2008 replayed.

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481

I’m still thinking that this is the best thing that could have happened for both of us. It’s a valuable lesson for the future and a test for your asset allocation and how you react to bad days/weeks or even market crashes.

We still got 50+ years to live. We’ll probably see 4-5 market crashes in our lifetime. And like I said, I’m glad that I’m experiencing the 1st one with 25k invested not with 500k.

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482

Well, I don’t mind that, I was waiting for it to happen anyway, only jumped the gun with my purchase too soon. I mean, if Russia declined to join OPEC and Saudi Arabia lowers oil price in retaliation and the market panics, then it’s not normal. Like, what was the alternative? They all agree to reduce production and keep the price up and that should make everybody happy?

If it should crash, let it crash hard, I will just have to work hard to get the buying power again to buy some more stock once it’s cheap again :hot_face:

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483

Yep
 the problem for some of us
 :sob::sob::sob:

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484

Could be an expensive lesson too.

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485

Are you already all in?

486

Almost
 but still, i invested 200k in the recent days. An excellent move :man_shrugging:

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487

It was a good move! You bought at a large discount already. Did you really expect to time the bottom perfectly? Some time from now you will see this as an excellent decision.

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488

The worst thing would be if you take away from it that you should time the market. I certainly could: https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=293747

Now it looks like you bought too expensive, but in 10 years it will look extremely cheap.

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489

At least my dilemma “should I buy now?” is gone for a while. I wonder how many years it takes till we see VTI at 150 again :stuck_out_tongue_winking_eye:

Btw not only the USD proce of shares drops, also the USD itself costs 0.92 CHF now, I bought at 0.97.

490

Yeah the USD/CHF correction isn’t really helping either.

All European futures down 7-9% today. Today will be crazy.

491

Oh wow, true. I need to buy me some dollars at this price :slight_smile:

Anyhow, I will keep on buying all the way down at 10% drops for all my assets as this is my strategy. This means I will be buying Arabian Gulf country exposure today, as the trigger is hit and I’m totally ok with this :slight_smile:

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492

Guys, please don’t be this guy: https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?p=5075701#p5075701