Coronavirus: when do we reach the bottom of the dip?

Didn’t the Romandie part have measures pretty close to what france has? (Shops, bars and restaurants closed).

As far as I know, shops closed are only in Geneva, mandatory closure of bars and restaurants and very limited gatherings are wildly spread. So are mask mandates.

We’re basically trying to avoid superspreading events while keeping a functioning society as best as we can. I’m looking forward to us identifying better what measures have the most impact and which ones only have a marginal one.

Numbers should fall rapidly if R-value falls significantly below 1.

It seems that you don’t need to do that much for the R-value to fall from, let’s say, 1.4 to 0.8. But doing so makes all the difference.

I have seen the following changes that could cause such a drop:

  • Strong return to Homeoffice. Less interactions at work and commuting.
  • People actually wear masks. I’ve even peeked into living rooms where people wore masks while socialising.
  • People are again more hesitant to meet at all or to meet in larger groups.
  • Many people seem to meet outside, despite the cold (e.g. the woods in Bern are full of grilling families, as if it were summer).
  • Superspreader events should have been greatly reduced through the closing of clubs, concerts and other large events.
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No more yodel concerts in romandie, that must be it.

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Because CH is not doing a lot of tests (compared to other countries)?
Afaik only a few countries in Europe are testing less (proportionally; like Croatia, Romania etc.)

For me it’s sort of “fake news”, and I am wearing my tinfoil hat. :slight_smile:

Exceptional news from the Oxford/Astrazeneca vaccine.

I’ve read puzzling headlines such as “the vaccine is effective at 70%” which is really bizarre. They have tried two different dosages and one is effective at 63% the other one at 90%. Btw these numbers do not mean much by the digit as they rely on data which is still sparse. What matters is that it works decently well.

Oh, and this is the same technology used for plenty of vaccines in use. And it is enormously more stable than the other two and can be stored in the fridge massively reducing problems with storage and transport. And it is enormously cheaper to produce. But the bottom line is that we do not need to decide which vaccine is best, I can see all three being used relatively soon. I for one am very optimistic about this pandemic for the first time since the beginning.

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Cases are falling fast in cantons that have stricter measures.

Many Cantons in central, and east Switzerland hardly have a decrease. This means that health care capacity is near maximum for a prolonged time and many more people will die isolated.

The measures, that cantons in the lake Geneva region have, should be extended to all of Switzerland.

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source?

New data offer glimpse of efficacy of Oxford-AstraZeneca Covid-19 vaccine says about the adenovirus vaccines:

The platform has not been used in an approved vaccine. But it has been used in experimental vaccines against the viruses that cause other outbreaks, including the Ebola virus and the virus that causes Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS).

It’s less new than the mRNA vaccine, but it’s still fairly new technology (never been used at scale).

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Oxford AstraZeneca Covid vaccine has up to 90% efficacy, data reveals | World news | The Guardian

Their vaccine has some big advantages, because it is fridge-stable so easily transported and used anywhere in the world. It is also substantially cheaper, at about £3 a dose instead of more than £20 for the others.

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Yes definitely cheaper to produce (tho I think the £3 is based on the “at cost” price while the other twos have some profit margin) and easier to distribute. But still a new vaccine technology.

You are absolutely right, it is used in plenty of developed vaccines (pre-pandemic) but with maybe one exception they are all still in trial. However it is also true that we have been tinkering with adenovirus for quite a while for gene therapy (mostly unsuccessfuly) so it is still something we have way more of a handle on that injecting RNA.

The effective reproduction number is quite different in the regions.

Region median Re confidence interval
Lake Geneva Region 0.55 (0.53-0.58)
Espace Mittelland 0.7 (0.67-0.73)
Ticino 0.88 (0.81-0.94)
Zürich 0.94 (0.9-0.98)
Eastern Switzerland 0.99 (0.94-1.03)
Central Switzerland 1 (0.94-1.06)
Northwestern Switzerland 1.05 (1-1.1)

https://ibz-shiny.ethz.ch/covid-19-re/

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So the current numbers for Switzerland say 741 newly infected, for Poland it’s 814. Since it’s more than 60 difference, Poland goes on the quarantine list. Looks like I’m not going to visit my parents for Christmas.

I’d like to ask you, how do you interpret the point 4d of the regulation:

If you go abroad and then come back “to work”, then is it not an “important work-related reason”? And before you ask, I’m not trying to trick the system, I just heard this from a friend and couldn’t believe it.

NOPE

To understand this article you need to read the “Erläuterungen Covid-19-Verordnung im Bereich des internationalen Personenverkehrs” which said that the exemption of said article only applies to crossborder commuters who come from an area at high risk of infection like France, Italy or Germany.

You read it at the beginning of page 8 for german speaker or at the end of page 7 for french speaker.

If you could said that because you have to work you can be exempted of the quarantine, all those rules wouldn’t have any objectiv :slight_smile:

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By Christmas time there could be more infected people per 100’000 people in Switzerland than in Poland.

Meaning what? The quarantine for the newly announced countries goes into force on December 14 and will be valid for 2 weeks. This includes Christmas. So the earliest possible date they could take Poland off the list could be December 28, after Christmas.

Have the Swiss authorities any control of the people arriving by car from this red areas like Poland? I dont think they will close all the roads like they did in March/April and is not possible to perform police controls in each single road that give access to CH. So the only feasible way its using the mobile data information (GPS & internet connections), but are they doing it? Also not trying to trick the system, just wondering…

I think if you come back by car then indeed nobody will know. I was in Italy when some regions like Campania or Veneto were under quarantine and there was no border control on the autobahn in Chiasso.

Maybe if you got sick and landed in a hospital, they would ask where you were. And then of course you could face the consequences.

I think there are just random checks, they cannot investigate everyone that went abroad.
Even if you come by plane / train from a restricted area you might not end up being checked.
Anyway you are supposed to self report and quarantine :upside_down_face:
You can also hope for the region to be delisted by the time you come back…

Be super-careful if you do that. They can track your phone and car.