Just a thought: we are testing around 20k people daily, and we are reaching 25% positive tests. I know that the people who are tested are not fully random, but it could be that we are reaching 20% of infected in general population, right? So maybe already 2 million people have (or had) it. Or even just one million. I think from here it goes fast to reach herd immunity, what do you think?
Yes.
I get that maybe they’re testing people with a higher likelihood of having it at the moment.
But still, going from 5% to 25% positivity rate almost certainly means that the true number of infected grew more than what the case numbers would indicate.
EDIT:
To be clear, I’m not at all advocating for anything like herd immunity!
I believe we won’t achieve herd immunity without extremely serious human, social and economic costs.
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My thinking too. Lets go back to our normal life and let the virus die out due to herd immunity.
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The earlier we abandon this idea of herd immunity the better it is for everyone.
The answer is no, for many reasons:
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20% of positive test rate is not in the same as 20% of infected people in the population. In fact it might not even be in the same order of magnitude. We are not testing at random and we are not testing even remotely so extensively that one could make that approximation. At the moment we had slighlty less than 90k positive tests confirmed in CH, which by the way include repeated tests. Even assuming that that number is vastly underestimating the real % of positive (likely) we’re still far off.
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We don’t know if herd immunity is even conceptually reachable with this virus. Mostly we don’t know how long immunity lasts (chances are: not long enough). Without this it’s just a meaningless concept for this disease. What would be the % to be reached? Nobody knows, and maybe it’s not applicable to this disease.
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Even for a second assuming that 20% of the swiss population had the disease, and assuming you could in theory reach herd immunity by having, say, 90% of people infected, saying that “from here it goes fast to herd immunity” is an amazing sentence. From here to herd immunity is few million infected, and tens of thousands dead.
EDIT: Maybe I should just shut up in a forum where people would nonchalantly say that losing 1% of the world population (70 MILLION people) would be not a big deal after all.
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Long Covid seems to be an issue as well. Immunity may also not be held that long.
Going directly for herd immunity is stupid, unethical, likely much more costly than a longer lockdown.
Apparently some people are willing to go over dead bodies just so that they go to the gym or go dancing in clubs.
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Just saw Zurich’s number (almost +1k in a day). Also the curve is pretty scary, in just two weeks, hospital beds occupancy for Covid went from 25 to 100 (doubling every week).
Unless the measures from this week have an impact, with a doubling of occupancy every week we’re going to run out of beds very quickly… (and if intensive care follow a similar surge, even worse)
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There were already statistics from the spring of 2020 telling that the Influenza A strain was basically non-existent due to people isolating themselves.
I can’t for the life of me remember the source. It was not in Switzerland but an EU country. In any case it’s hard to attribute that to any single measure. Self isolation is obviously the most efficient one. Usually hand hygiene has been a good second, I wouldn’t know how to evaluate the combination of everything statistically.
It’s definitely interesting to see what happens during what would otherwise be the normal flu season of 2020-2021.
I agree that many people do not use or handle masks properly and it could lead to contamination. Viruses however cannot replicate in a mask - they require living cells to do that. Bacteria can thrive outside other living organisms if the material allows them to multiply but viruses work very differently.
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I don’t think anybody wanted to suggest that you could permanently eradicate the flu. 
Found an interesting piece of information I thought wasn’t available: Hospital utilization, i.e. how long until hospitals are overflowing. Also has info on the situation in cantons, all in German.
So ausgelastet sind die Intensivstationen wegen Corona
As for the perceived choice between health and economy, I don’t really see it. I was on holiday in Greece last week and they manage do get both right, at the moment at least. They screen incoming passengers, have strict measures in place, like masks indoors, with no discussions (none that we saw at least). At the same time our hotel is having the most successful October ever, with bookings still rising. They are thinking about staying open in November, which they never did in the past.
I concur, it’s already not working in Fribourg either. Many people of my family are in quarantine but just because we were told by the person that got infected, not by anybody else. And for the positive members, nobody every asked about any contact tracing.
I’m sure it will because there are different strains around the world and there’s flu season most of the time on either hemisphere.
This time around the flu season may overload testing or at least make it more expensive. The symptoms are similar so people will have to be tested for both. There are already combination tests which detect flu and/or covid in one go. Hopefully there will be enough of those to go around.
To be absolutely clear: when I say flu I mean the influenza virus which is serious. The common cold is something else and can be caused by a number of other virii (often adeno- and rhinoviruses).
Has anyone mentioned that the main reason you can’t reach herd immunity without a vaccine is because it will make the health system collapse?
It’s not that just 1% would die, deaths would be billions or almost all around the world.
In Italy, with the health system collapsed, death rate was 10%, not 1%. If you really let everyone free to spread the virus, you won’t find the place in the hospital for even trivial issues… people would die for stuff like appendicitis. I had the feeling that it was even starting in canton Geneva, when during the peak a friend I know was risking her life (not covid related) because had to wait too long before being taken to the hospital by the ambulance. I know that’s not normal here in Switzerland.
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Something more against herd immunity: https://www.dutchnews.nl/wpcms/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/ciaa1538.pdf
Someone got re-infected with a second strain of Covid-19 after just 59 days. Admittedly, they were under chemotherapy at that time, but still…
As for the I-don’t-care-about-your-dead-people people: What do you consider to be the freedom you seek? Is it the freedom from any rules (think anarchy, drunk driving is fine)? Is it just selective freedom? My personal opinion is close to the wonderful line ‘My freedom to swing my fist ends at the point where your nose starts.’
Along the same point: My grandfather will probably live about one more year (judging from cancer development). Do you really want to rob me of the last 6 months (best estimate I can come up with) with him, just so you can have a drink? Does this agree with your definition of freedom?
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The idea of eradicating the flu sounds tempting to me. However, I don’t see how the government could provide for anything. To have food, you need to make food. Some things need constant care, like animals, power plants, power lines, sick people in hospitals. Water/sewage pipes get stuck or ruptured. People have to be out there in the World, and try to avoid contact with other people. I think maybe we will have a shot at it, when there are smart robots which can do most manual jobs.
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The first image is great, comparing numbers over two weeks, as if the flu season started exactly on the same date every year 
I’m not saying masks have no influence on the flu, just that the first picture has no value.
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The gastro enteritis season (seasonnal infection that is transmitted when the germs get in your digestive system after touching non steril object) has started during september and this type of infection was way less frequent in 2020. Less medical consultation, and less sale in the pharmacy (most people self medicate for gastro enteritis, so it is a period of sale for pharmacists, they track it every year). Guess a better hygiene for covid also works on more begnin germs.
The currently observed number of cases is lower than at any point in 2019, so I would say it’s relevant.
Yeah that’s not my point, I’m sure it’s true. I just mean this fox news 95% number has no value. As if one were comparing temperature between this week and the same week last year and saying it’s x% colder this year 
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Lockdown is most likely economically unsustainable, so Sweden made a right decision (although they are paying a hefty price in human lives). Using them as a example of approaching as soon as possible the herd immunity is utter nonsense, as that would lead to hospitals overload, panic and in effect… more lockdown. The solution to this epidemic is balance between economic survival and not-overloading the health care.