Coronavirus: when do we reach the bottom of the dip?

I bought at 110 the same day. :blush:

Happy to see it’s recovering, I’m still 100k lower than my max in February! :scream::wink:

5 Likes

https://finlantern.com/corona-daily-comment-eng-12/

The author thinks that the Ro without countermeasures could be even 300, that the incubation period for people with strong immunity system is even 3-4 weeks and concludes:

In short, considering the rate of spread of this epidemic, I would not be surprised if the level of contagion in Italy was actually greater than 50%

we could actually be not far from what is called HERD IMMUNITY

1 Like

The data from south Korea disproves this hypothesis.

1 Like

Can you mention any valuable argument? Which data are you thinking about?

Why? Be kind enough to elaborate
 The author of that post derives the highest Ro from South Korea, where it was 300 at the beginning of the spread, when they made a large number of tests. Currently South Korea is not testing extensively anymore, in fact, we have had 2x more tests per capita in Switzerland.

It is impossible to contain a virus that has a R0 of 300. South Korea did it. Contact tracing is a big reason why. This limits the number of unknown cases by a lot.

If you assume a long generation time, the R0 will be really huge, but the long generation time has to be accurate.

But with a long generation time, we wouldn’t see the effect of measures taken.

If everybody has had it, we wouldn’t see such large difference in regions when it comes to load on the health care system.

2 Likes

Did you read the whole piece? He says that the virus hit hard in the beginning, because the incubation period was the shortest for people with low immunity, and they were also the ones who were hit most severely. Right now Italy’s hospital are witnessing a reduction in severe cases even though the growth of all cases is still linear? Why is that? Why are the new cases not as severe?

New cases don’t grow linearly, daily new cases are down nearly 50% from their peak.
Another factor is testing capacity, even with a constant capacity, you will catch more milder cases if less people get sick.

There are other factors relevant if you base your calculation R only on the new cases. If you detect a new cluster and begin mass testing all contacts, you will have more cases within a very short time.

There is no explanation how R0 is calculated.

2 Likes

Here a solid one from ERN

30 VTI @ 109.6965 the 23rd
 :wink:

3 Likes

Dang. You win :-). That’s as close to the very bottom as it gets.

1 Like

Most of the people actually missed the right timing and sold at the bottom.

Isn’t it surprising how many people believe and actually try to beat the market?

2 Likes

Is anyone wondering how the front page of finance.yahoo.com works, other than getting many info from cookies spread around internet?
It looks like an horoscope
they have a random list of articles and they just pick one according to what is happening at the moment. They probably published a positive article because s&p started very positive, then suddenly:
image

Damn it, why didn’t I buy VTI for 110$ when I had the chance? Hopefully I get a 2nd chance.

3 Likes

In 10 years from now, when it’s at $250, you may say to yourself: Damn, why didn’t I buy at $135? It was almost as good as $110.

5 Likes

That’s one pretty lively zombie dead cat. :rofl:

1 Like

Haha, yes.
Who’s doing all the buying at the mo’? Or is no-one doing much selling?
So is anyone in this group still buying? I was buying regularly on the way down every -5%, so that’s not working any more. Completely stopped after the last Viac rebalancing on 1.4 where I finally could up my stock allocation from 75 to 90% after years of waiting.

lockdown in CH to last a week longer, now till 26.4 :-/

I bought some shares in Airbus yesterday.

1 Like

I bought some Swiss market ETF (CHSPI) earlier this week, because I hadn’t before and had an acute case of FOMO.

1 Like

Maybe this sobers up the US and the markets. :nerd_face:
Singapore eased off the lockdown - (sort of a) second wave - lockdown again:

But let’s wait to see what happens in Europe, with Denmark and Austria loosing up next week.

1 Like