You can’t make this stuff up. Wish him a speedy recovery nevertheless.
1 Like
If you read any news you would know: Yes, recovering from the viral infection makes you immune, though it is not certain yet how long the immunity lasts.
Yes, that’s what I read as well. Another question to me would be, is it really 100% immunity. Vaccinations have a varying degree of immunity, influenza famously well below 100%. And the length of the immunity is also rather decisive. If it runs out before a vaccine is available, herd immunity would be rather fleeting.
You may be true but my argument is that if only 2% of the population would have immunity today you would never see any significant drop in the number of daily new cases with the dodgy confinement we have in this country, with people still going at work or to the supermarket.
Idiot idiot idiot. Shaking hands in hospital, “some probably corona patients”, not only dangerous for himself but especially in this circumstance all the (non-corona) patients. If you’re a patient & in hospital bed & prime minister comes to shake hands, you’ll probably accept in the spur of the moment. It seems that the crowd of hospital directors & docs probably following him around at the time who know it better didn’t scold him & forbid it immediately. No spine those people. Our place - our rules, even if you the queen.
5 Likes
R0 is between 2-3.
So measures need to prevent 50-70% of transmissions to achieve a R of 1 or below.
People now have close contact too far fewer people and most practice a physical distance if they are outside. I think it is reasonable to expect R to be lower than 1 with our current measures. Anything more than 1-3% of the population is quite unlikely to have been infected.
1 Like
I found this site that try to estimate the variation of R0 based on the backlog calculation of daily new cases, found it pretty interesting.
https://epiforecasts.io/covid/
" Temporal variation in transmission during the COVID-19 outbreak "
Austria and Denmark are planning to gradually “reopen life” from next week April 15th.
Let’s see how that goes…
https://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2020/04/06/world/europe/06reuters-health-coronavirus-denmark.html
1 Like
I have my own estimate. I don’t know how valid the calculation is. I divide the current 5 day moving average with the one from 5 days ago. I saw some research that the mean generation time is 5 days. I think this is a usable approximation for R, but I am no epidemiologist. It is not really a “valid” way to calculate R, so take it with a grain of salt.
Maybe I’ll find the time to a program that uses some epi library to use a valid way to calculate R.
1 Like
Wow, my SP500 ETF is back on green territory 
2 Likes
I have no medical education and am also not a virologist. But immune means immune there is no 10, 50 or 100% immunity. What you refer to influenza is that there are always several influenza viruses from different stems, to my knowledge the WHO gives yearly recommendations on what is spreading and then you are 100% immune to those influenza viruses if you are vaccinated but then there are still many more out there and maybe there are even regional differences - no idea.
The cat is bouncing high…
4 Likes
Of course, otherwise you would have much more deaths. CFR of corona is about 0.5-1.5%. If 70% of Swiss were infected, you’d have:
1% * (70%*9M) = 1% * 6.3M = ~63k deaths.
Currently there’s total of 811 deaths.
On one hand, it feels better to be “only” -10k on investments, on the other hand I feel FOMO I haven’t invested more, and yet on the other hand this dead cat feels weird as most economists predict 2008-like recession (and thus I feel scared that I have invested before so much). Crazy times.
4 Likes
Great, now sell to harvest profits before it dumps down again. 
JK, my VTI is nearly at break even too, but I am having mixed feelings about it.
On Thursday I believe we have a new set of US unemployment claims report - let’s see if it shakes the ground of this (somewhat surreal IMO) optimism a bit.
2 Likes
I have also been expecting lower lows, but now I hope it stays up a few more days until my RSUs vest
Kind of nuts really.
Have this trade confirmation from 23rd March. I’ll probably print it out and frame it 
“BOUGHT 10 VTI @ 111.46”
It went below 110$ that day lol. I was too afraid that it will just keep dropping. Will we ever see this price again?
A very interesting article was published today in Foreign Affairs: the virus crisis will not not lead to a world that’s much different from the current world, as it’s only accelerating and accentuating characteristics that already exist.
Now what would that mean for us as investors?
That day my limit was too low 