[COFFEE] Possibility of World War 3

[Cortana]

We stopped the Earth from rotating for 2 years when old people were at risk. Now a whole country which you can reach in 14 hours by car is invaded and nothing happens.

[Neville]

@Patron

It seems that if you’re attacked by a nuclear power everybody will just sit and do nothing, so the only way to protect yourself is to have nuclear weapons by yourself as a deterrent.

Mutual assured destruction

@Bojack

In the west we want to fight hate speech, spread tolerance and diversity and make everyone feel safe. Yet these concerns pale in the face of real war. We put filters on our profile pictures, draw with crayons on pavement, illuminate buildings and send our thoughts and prayers.

You are so right.

[dbu]

@Kay4rElle

it feels like we are in a classroom full of people and one of the bullies just punches one kid in the face and everyone is scared to act, or even worse, everyone is ok with the fact that the bully is occupied with something and are not looking at them…

And that is true even within Russia itself.
Just look at this guy trembling.
This is about one person only, not entire nation.

Peter Liakhov (@peterliakhov) on X

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In other news…

He said that a “winning potential proposition” would be to educate Russians on Putin and his invasion of Ukraine.

“A sustained information campaign that tells the Russian people every week about Vladimir Putin’s corruption … could be very effective in deterring Putin from taking these types of aggressive acts,” Pavel added.

Barry Pavel of the Atlantic Council

Kyiv mayor: 'No Russian troops in the capital'

This is nearly as effective as projecting the Ukraine flag on the buildings of European organizations in Brussels.
Pathetic.

[Bojack]

@Patron

so if Ukraine had nuclear weapons

Ukraine actually DID have nuclear weapons, but they gave them to Russia, in exchange for assurances from the US, that they will defend them in case of aggression from Russia. A stupid move, in hindsight, or? Lesson: never believe the Americans, when they’re selling you their bullshit.

Budapest Memorandum
The memorandum included security assurances against threats or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of Ukraine, Belarus, and Kazakhstan.

As a result, between 1994 and 1996, Belarus, Kazakhstan and Ukraine gave up their nuclear weapons. Until then, Ukraine had the world’s third-largest nuclear weapons stockpile

[Neville]

@Patron

Wouldn’t be surprised if lots of countries consider it.

There are thoughts that support this (paywalled): https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/japan/2016-07-26/let-them-make-nukes

The article says that if more countries have nuclear weapons, the world would be more stable.

@Patron

Maybe we should think about it too?

We had already have thought about it!

Switzerland and weapons of mass destruction

[xorfish]

Covid has killed around 20 million people over the last two years and that isn’t the final death count.

I don’t want to decide how many lives of “old people” are worth the same as the live of a young person. This war is bad on it’s own.

I just wonder how long Russian troops will fight in Putins war. Most soldiers don’t want to kill Ukrainians and it requires quite a bit of training or very strong morale to get soldiers to shoot to kill. However this will be necessary part of the offensive once fighting is happening in the cities.

Shooting to kill - how many men can do this?

[ma0]

About SWIFT:

1. If you send your money to russia, then you block Swift, your money is lost.
2. If you block SWIFT, russia will have to accept other means of payment for their gas. Suddenly the USD isn’t the strong currency as it is now.

Here ar the two reasons.

[user137]

@TeaCup

How big would the impact be if we cut Russia off from the Financial System and enforce Aluminium and Energy Embargos? Might cost us a cold Winter but I guess quite a few European Countries would be fine with colder Flats

it’s not about the flats (for those the countries have strategic gas tanks) but rather industry that only has an option to fuel operations with gas. Cutting gas would mean that those things would basically stop working (or either one of the two).

[user137]

@Patron

Germany and Italy are already backing down, they call for softer sanctions than the EU as a whole wants to impose. Politicians promised a nice green energy wonderland to their constituents so they need Russian gas. I’m pretty sure NS2 will go live, just a few months later.

https://twitter.com/marenbennette/status/1497115945445253124

[user137]

@Patron

So maybe it’s time for a joint covert operation of the CIA, MI6, and the Sayeret Matkal to get rid of the problem?

I was thinking about this for long - how come they haven’t yet done it?

[Neville]

The country’s history and geopolitics is what it is.

I believe it was Henry Kissinger who said that Russia alternates between the wish for closer ties with Europe and a strong aversion towards it.

[Bojack]

@ma0

• If you send your money to russia, then you block Swift, your money is lost.
• If you block SWIFT, russia will have to accept other means of payment for their gas. Suddenly the USD isn’t the strong currency as it is now.

This seems a bit misinformed to me. SWIFT is a communications system. If you block Russian banks from SWIFT, they will still be able to make international transfers, it just becomes more cumbersome, more costly. They would have to use phone/fax/email to coordinate the transactions with their counterparties. Here’s a video on the topic.

Actually, Boyle claims that freezing the accounts (outside of Russia) is a bigger hit to Russia than preventing them from using SWIFT.

What Does Being Cut Off From SWIFT Mean For Russia?

[ma0]

@Bojack

This seems a bit misinformed to me

Do you have a videoanswer also about the second point? I know what SWIFT is, i should have written “might be lost” instead of “is lost”. It’s a matter of speed and processes, not that it disappear like SWIFT is some kind of cryptocoin. For the second point I didn’t see a good article about it apart from bit and pieces here and there. You might see China being in favor of banning Russia from Swift so they can offer their system.

[Kay4rElle]

@1000000CHF

Within next decade there are currently two places in the world that can drag us into nuclear conflict between superpowers - one is possible invasion of Taiwan by China (with full control of South China Sea as first step) and second is possible invasion of Baltic states by Russia (with invasion of Ukraine being first step and testing Western response).

I was wondering what investment implication might have such potential conflicts? Should I start buying food cans and ammo or maybe physical gold? I doubt Bitcoin or stocks will be of any use in such scenario…

To get back to the beginning of the thread:

The first hypotesis has become reality, how much do you think its possible that China will try to attack Tawian in the coming months?

[Barto]

@Patron

Switzerland refuses to freeze assets and everyone on the sanctions list has still full access to their assets.

That is not likely to end well for the Swiss banking system and banking secrecy coming on top of the Credit Suisse leaks

[nabalzbhf]

Wouldn’t swiss banks lose access to EU and US financial markets if they don’t follow sanctions?

[nabalzbhf]

In practice aren’t swiss banks following the sanctions on russian bonds and banks?

Credit Suisse Joins UBS in Cutting Lending Against Russian Debt - SWI swissinfo.ch seems to imply so. While I couldn’t find evidence that the swiss government explicitly followed EU and US on those sanctions (so it would mean swiss banks following the sanctions is due to them not wanting to lose EU/US market access?).

[Barto]

UK is applying sanctions on one Swiss resident but I assume Switzerland will look the other way, like always

Geneva based oligarch under sanctions

Public opinion is being changed by this. In the UK, freezing /confiscating assets of Roman Abramovich (owner of Chelsea Football Club) has started being discussed

The reaction in EU and other countries to Switzerland’s actions is going to be interesting, some EU politicians were already asking for CH to be blacklisted following CS leaks.

It may not be WW3 yet but it feels like the world has changed

[Bojack]

Something doesn’t add up. There already is a precedent of Switzerland being forced to comply and compromise its banking secrecy in the past, by having to implement FATCA and AIA (Automatischer Informationsaustausch), not? The Americans said if Switzerland does not comply, they will close American stock exchanges to Swiss financial institutions. Imagine an online broker in Switzerland which does not allow you to trade on NYSE. So if they could force Switzerland once, why couldn’t they again? Or is it not worth rocking the boat in the interest of a third country?

[Bojack]

Just look at this… (sound ON)

Balša Božović 🇨🇦 (@Balshone) on X

I’m trying very hard not to start swearing. Someone had too much GTA or Call of Duty. Somehow, miraculously, the old man driving that car has survived. War awakens the worst human behaviour. Can we please stop talking bullshit about “military targets” and “collateral damage”. Russian army is killing people for fun, just like they and the Germans were killing Poles in WW2…